Two polls in two days show Sanders closing on Clinton in NH.

[geek tragedy]

There was a lot of buzz yesterday about a poll from a little-known group called "Morning Consult" showing Sanders pulling within 10 in NH. See, e.g., Cali's thread from yesterday.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=6840368

Admittedly, I was a little skeptical due to the low profile polling operation.

Today, Suffolk University published a NH poll, and it shows the exact same thing--Sanders behind by around 10%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FINAL_NH_DEM_Marginals.html

This, mind you, is a state Clinton won against Barack Obama in 2008.

Clinton is still the favorite to win, but Bernie is for real. He's not a joke, he's not a vanity candidate. He is a serious candidate for the nomination with an emerging path to victory.

A long one, but one that's now visible.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. I concluded that a while ago

Alas...

[geek tragedy]

2. there was always the potential.

What's rather striking is that this isn't due to any mistakes Clinton is making, it's just Sanders drawing grassroots support.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Clinton has made several mistakes already

Me and others have observed the uncanny parallels to 2008

Mind you, her mistakes have not been that large.

[karynnj]

4. In fact, NH was a state where Clinton was ahead by about 20 points BEFORE Iowa

Then after Obama won Iowa, like all Iowa winners, he got some momentum. This led to a few polls with him ahead of Clinton, who ended up beating him by a small number of points. (I would question if the difference were not due to the Shaheens supporting Clinton and having a well honed GOTV. The media attributed to HRC's tears.)

[bunnies]

5. That "moment" was on every damn tv channel constantly.

People were talking about it at the polls. EVERYONE had seen it. Whether it gave her the state or not, who knows, but it definitely had an effect on the outcome.

[karynnj]

6. That is certainly a possibility, but it also is true that having a great GOTV operation

can swing a few points. I really should have credited the "moment" and the fact that it probably did humanize someone who really was more distant than any politician I can think of - including Al Gore, before suggesting that it also was GOTV - especially as I was NOT there and that is what many said.

The fact that she had recently been far ahead, would suggest that almost ANYTHING to push people to reconsider someone who they had - just a week before - supported could have done so. (In fact, it might even have been people moved to say they supported Obama having last minute concerns that he was so new. Remember this was before the important endorsements from leaders like Kerry and Kennedy.) I suspect for many, it was not an easy choice and they liked both.

A month later, phonebanking in NJ for Obama, there were many many people who were very impressed by both -- and I remember the hardest thing to answer was people saying they wanted both so they were voting for Clinton and hoping she would pick him for VP. It was clear from moment one that we needed to sell Obama without any criticism of Clinton -- unlike anything I could have posted on DU2.

[onenote]

7. four respondents to the poll (out of 500) said they'd never heard of Barack Obama

What corner of the deep woods did they go to in conducting this poll?