Imagine, it's election night 2016 and Bernie is the nominee...

[Dream Girl]

Which states will he win? How many electoral votes will he get? You guys are scaring me...for real!

[KMOD]

1. LMFAO

umm, about those coronation posts?

Do as I say, not as I do, right?

[Dream Girl]

4. Not coronation posts, just realistic.

i really like the guy and think that it's probably a good thing he is running. But Hillary is unfortunately our best chance and not a great one at that. I seriously think that Hillary could very well implode and Bernie could possibly get the nomination. And then it will be McGovern all over again like 1972. I was only 13, but I remember. The left seriously thought he was going to win the general. and he won like 4 states. Nixon landslide. The thought of this is absolutely terrifying. I have kids to think about. This is not a game. Stakes are way too high. An old, uncharasmatic, Self avowed Jewish socialist is not going to win North Carlina. Or Virginia. Or Colorado. Or Ohio. Seriously. And don't Compare him to Obama. Obama...he was magical back in 2008. Bernie decidedly is not. I think Warren might have a better chance if she ran, But frankly I don't like our chances with any of them.

[Motown_Johnny]

10. Hillary is likely to implode in the General

and then we will lose in a landslide. A depressed (D) vote caused by her implosion will hurt every other (D) on every ticket in the country.

That is what being realistic means.

Bernie not only has a good shot, but he is more likely to not implode and hurt everyone else on the ticket.

[DJ13]

2. To hear conservatives talking Obama was a Socialist Muslim in 08

How many states did he win?

[Binkie The Clown]

3. He might a city or two, but a whole state? Be serious! n/t

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

5. I hope we find out on election night.

It would depend a lot on the "moderates" in the Democratic Party not sitting on their hands or voting Republican...like they did in Florida in 2000.

[jmowreader]

6. I feel good about 206 electoral votes

I think we'll get Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts and New York.

The biggest problem we face with Bernie is he self-identifies as a socialist. Throw the inevitable footage of Red Square parades and playing of Warsaw Pact national anthems together with a lot of "open carry" and "constitutional carry" ballot initiatives (Constitutional Carry is permit-free concealed weapon carry) and such grand liberal strongholds as the State of Washington become toss-ups.

I'd rather see Bernie as Senate Democratic Leader. We're gonna need one now that Harry Reid is retiring, and Bernie is a great senator.

Try this on for size: How about Steve Beshear, the governor of Kentucky?

[gotj90]

7. Bernie making it to the general election

would mean there was an unforeseen and unprecedented grassroots movement in America that wouldn't stop after the primary. I think he'd have a good chance.

[cali]

8. oh for fuck's sake. this is just divisive and supremely silly

You're scared. Bah. In that case you either aren't thinking or you have an agenda in posting this.

THE ODDS THAT BERNIE WILL WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION ARE VANISHINGLY SMALL.

Got that? Good.

It's about bringing to the forefront issues that should be at the forefront. It's about a national discussion within our party. If you're trying to shut down that discussion, that's antithetical to what our party has historically been about. And it's damned foolish.

ENOUGH

[DiverDave]

9. Hear Hear

Although I would really, REALLY like to see him in the White House.
I am not happy with voting for Hillary, but I will. With nose
firmly pinched shut.

[deutsey]

11. Bingo

[stevenleser]

12. You're asking us to predict that without a GE opponent and without us knowing

what led up to that surprising scenario, all of which would matter a lot to any prediction.

If you are limiting the scenario to Sanders nomination with everything else being equal to today versus a generic Republican opponent, I think Sanders would take 7-10 states and about 120-150 electoral votes, giving the GOP nominee around 300-330 EV and 40-43 states.

What is even more fascinating to contemplate is, let's say Sanders wins everything somehow and ends up with a similar congress to today, or perhaps a few more Democratic seats but still a Republican majority in both houses. Or even a slightly Democratic senate and a Republican house, which is the best possible case scenario and would be difficult to achieve.

In that scenario Does Sanders get anything remotely transformative passed? The answer is clearly a no. A President Sanders would not be able to operate much differently than any generic Democrat without strong Democratic majorities in both houses of congress. It all becomes, what he could propose that enough Republicans would support. Anything that passes a Republican house would almost certainly be seen by current Sanders supporters as a sellout piece of legislation. You wouldn't get a Republican house to pass any kind of dramatically progressive legislation.

I find the support of Bernie for the reasons most of his supporters put forward fascinating given the realities of what Sanders would face if he somehow won it all. As we see now, a President facing a hostile congress can't do much of anything.