General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUS Ebola infection/incubation timeline 11.1.14
Although the incubation period is up to 21 days, the incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.
Duncan-Dallas Line
It has been 24 days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8). There were 76 people who provided care to Duncan before his death. Only two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, were infected. Both recovered. No new infections have been reported. All of Duncan's contacts, pre-isolation and post-isolation have survived the incubation period.
Days since Pham was isolated (Oct. 10).....22 days -- The one person being observed as Pham's contact has passed through the incubation period. Pham is now Ebola-free.
Days since Vinson was isolated (Oct. 14)......18 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory. Vinson is now Ebola-free. Her pre-isolation contacts will conclude the incubation period in 3 days. No new infections have been reported.
Days since Vinson reported Ebola-free (Oct. 23)......9 days.
Days since Pham confirmed Ebola-free (Oct. 24)......8 days.
Spencer-NYC Line
Days since Dr. Spencer was isolated (Oct. 23).....9 days. Dr. Spencer reported a slight fever, at 100.3, on the night of October 22 and was isolated on the morning of October 23. Dr. Spencer, like Pham and Vinson, was isolated quickly and before he had any symptoms other than a slight fever of 100.3. Any pre-isolation contacts who were infected would likely have shown symptoms by now, or would very soon. However, there is little to no chance that he infected anyone prior to isolation.
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The above is what I have kept track of based on dates of news reports. Below is a link to the CDC "Cases of Ebola in the US" page. In includes the Dallas contact tracing. According to the CDC, as of October 31, 2014, 10 out of 11 direct contacts to one of the Ebola patients (Duncan, Pham, and/or Vinson) have completed monitoring without infection. There is one still under surveillance.
Of the "possible contacts," 90 of 166 have completed surveillance, with 76 left. The CDC does not give a time line of when surveillance will end, or when it began for any of the numbers. I would assume (could infer) that many of the 76 left are pre-isolation possible contacts of Vinson, but m not sure.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/united-states-imported-case.html
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Turbineguy
(37,332 posts)so in need of a good mass-panic....
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)But we never do learn that, do we? We are infected alright, with a pandemic of panic, and our puppet masters know how to pull our strings and make us scream.
deurbano
(2,895 posts)Last edited Sat Nov 1, 2014, 10:09 PM - Edit history (2)
This was the only one I could find regarding Vinson's contacts emerging from the incubation period:
"Amber Vinson contacts will begin to be released from Ebola monitoring requirements this weekend"
http://www.cleveland.com/akron/index.ssf/2014/10/amber_vinson_contacts_will_beg.html
morningfog
(18,115 posts)article or report on a single health provider of Duncan's making it through the incubation period.
deurbano
(2,895 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)reported and celebrated.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)KMOD
(7,906 posts)Yes, I think you are absolutely right. In three more days we should be down to I believe 4 contacts. Those four all involve Dr. Spencer.
Dr. Spencer is on the mend, and although his contacts will be cleared in less than 2 weeks, we have 33 days to go to declare the US Ebola free, since they have to wait 42 days from the last patient.
We are getting there. Thanks for all your efforts morningfog.