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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI have an ominous feeling about Invest 94L
and yes this is six days away from the Caribbean, but here's comes mid-August and we're approaching peak season
Jeff Masters
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off of Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, according to the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively. Mid-August is the time when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks into high gear, and 94L is definitely a disturbance we need to watch.
msongs
(67,436 posts)malaise
(269,157 posts)LOL
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)KoKo
(84,711 posts)It's too early to tell...but he's often correct in spotting the dangerous ones early on.
malaise
(269,157 posts)the best in the business - I also love Max Mayfield who gave Bushco et al all the information needed for Katrina and they still blew it.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)as a warning? I remember being here on DU that night...and being devastated that people wouldn't listen to him? He posted and it was Dire...his feelings and emotions that night?
I wonder that we would ever hear from "Honest" folks like him who would ever have the courage to Warn Again?
Was that the guy? I remember that night here on DU so well. What the Hell happened to us since then... Well...whatever...no use crying over spilt milk.
malaise
(269,157 posts)He was Director of the NHC at the time. He retired and works with ABC in Florida.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)malaise
(269,157 posts)KoKo
(84,711 posts)Mojorabbit
(16,020 posts)Warpy
(111,331 posts)stay out to sea, usually thanks to capture by a weather front at some point during their week long transit across the Atlantic.
Then again, Bertha started out there and gave glancing blows to the eastern Caribbean islands and the southernmost Bahamas before going out to sea, so who knows?
We're getting a normal monsoon season in the desert southwest, so maybe formerly normal weather patterns are reasserting themselves elsewhere, too.
Still, it's far too soon to give anything but guesswork on what this one will do and where it will go.
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)Here in Upstate New York along the Lakes, we're expecting a big winter this year.
Warpy
(111,331 posts)and that means that there is no longer a food reserve, although we're still managing to feed ourselves in this country.
That's scary.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Glad there's someone else here who feels the same ways. Truly... But....we still don't know...it's our Gut Feeling...I guess. Which folks say isn't real or scientific because it isn't based on statistics and models and the "rule of Law." I'm just being a bit OTT..here...though.
I do believe in Science and the rest. I still believe in "Intuition" though until that's denied to us, as part of the "Human Experience Picture." 's
Always explain it this way: "I grew up in Rural America...My View is Different from Yours in the Metropolitan Cities who drive our culture, economy and advertising."
Warpy
(111,331 posts)"WHEN ARE YOU FUCKING GOING TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!!?? Gut feelings should be acknowledged rather than ignored. However, when additional data disprove what our guts are telling our brains, it's time to move on to another body system for decision making.
lordsummerisle
(4,651 posts)ominous feelings aren't used in forecasts...
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Civilization to move forward when the "Primates" were were WIRED into Self Preservation from their basic...animal instincts that have been "bred out" through evolution but some unfortunates of us still retain that gene. Damn It...I wish I could donate that gene...but, alas I feel it's still valuable as a warning amongst the population to still retain that "sense" that alerts us to "something is amiss."
lordsummerisle
(4,651 posts)but I don't think we need to dive under our desks every time a low pressure wave wafts off Africa into the Atlantic...
KoKo
(84,711 posts)areas. We have to VENT from time to time. Those of us who have been through Hurricanes tend to have a genuine interest in what is to come to prepare. We are "REALISTS."
Logical
(22,457 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)malaise
(269,157 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)steve2470
(37,457 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)I am very grateful for "ominous feelings".
Nothing wrong with that, nothing wrong with being a bit hyper aware of something that may just hit me, gives me time to survey my readiness. How can that be harmful?
malaise
(269,157 posts)was also a year when we had fewer Atlantic hurricanes but guess what. That was 1992 - the year Andrew hit Florida and I'll never forget that one. Gilbert, Andrew Ivan, Katrina and Sandy are the five big ones in my lifetime.
Sandy formed south of Jamaica and I always feared for the US South East. There was just that feeling. Strangely enough as close as Ivan was to Jamaica's south coast, I also had a feeling he would not give us a direct hit.
There are no feelings without looking at the scientific stuff - the models
Logical
(22,457 posts)malaise
(269,157 posts)but don't write it off yet - there's convection in it this morning.
Glad my feeling was wrong.
Keep an eye on all those waves coming out of Africa at this time