We must not kid ourselves into thinking that Christie hasn't got a shot at the White House

[Agnosticsherbet]

In almost every election, Republicans nominate what they see as the sensible moderate in sheep's clothing. Romney won the "electable" meme and became the nominee against the teaparty clamoring for a "Real Conservative." (NOTE - a Teaparty "Real Conservative" is the person who sounds sane to the crazies.) McCain won the "electable" meme and the nomination in 2008. Bush won the "electable" meme in 2000, and the White House, with that "Compassionate Conservative" lie while running against Bill Clinton's zipper, with the help of criminal acts and the Supreme Court.

As long as there are enough Republicans who want someone they think is electable by the independent center right voters, he will win the "electable meme." If an open crazy like Cruz wins the nomination, the Republican party will have completed its Wiginization and will be gone by 2020, replaced by a party that keeps its screaming crazies in a box.

This is why Christie is the most dangerous Republican in the current race. He is capable of looking normal to the independent, non-aligned voters in the center, many of whom are Republicans who were left without a party by the shifting definition of "Conservative" and the drive for ideological purity.

[lostincalifornia]

1. Absolutely right. The msm portrays him as a moderate, and he isn't.

[hooverville29]

5. Compared to some crazies out there, he is. GOP's norm has shifted.

[truebrit71]

24. Yup. And they will have no problem getting right behind him once the Teahadists fall by the wayside.

..."do we really need another Clinton in the WH?" will be the likely refrain...

[cali]

2. Quite right.

Yes, it looks like it would be hard for him to get the repuke nomination, but hell, it looked hard for rMoney and he did it.

Don't count the establishment repukes and their huge money backers, out.

[scheming daemons]

9. Romney had the advantage of the teahadists splitting their vote among multiple choices

[Agnosticsherbet]

12. Republican business groups are marshaling the money to challenge the Teaparty.

Last edited Wed Nov 6, 2013, 05:58 PM - Edit history (1)

This will be Christies strength. He will have big business behind him, and he will be broadcast 24/7/365 as "electable" my moderates.

Cruz has a shot if the parties business wing desert it for whoever the Democrats run.

[exboyfil]

34. Cruz gets the VP bone

to settle the Tea Party down. C&C in 2016 (like R&R in 2012). Obama has done the Democrats no favors for 2016.

[LonePirate]

3. Will the Teahadists split their votes in the 2016 primaries like they did in 2012?

Romney was nominated because the extremists kept splitting their votes among Gingrich, Santorum and others. If they coalesce around Cruz or Paul early during the primaries, then Christie stands no chance.

[pacalo]

4. He's far too abrasive & doesn't have the temperment for the job.

I can almost visualize the media circus with him as a candidate.

[backscatter712]

22. No, Christie can pretend to be the nice guy when he wants to.

Case in point: the Obama hug.

That scene was probably what got him reelected by such a large margin.

Don't underestimate Christie. In my view, he's a dangerous political opponent. He very well could win, especially if we're dumb enough to dismiss him.

[bowens43]

37. Unfortunately, people like that about him. See him as down to earth and folksy

[librechik]

6. I expect he will win if the PTB can't make a deal with Hillary

They have the power to make it happen just like they did with Junior. (and who else?)

Except they might make it happen with Jeb instead.

Oh, no one will vote for another Bush? What does voting have to do with it?

We have to get real about who is really in charge of this country before we can try to do anything about it. And we don't seem to have democracy as a tool anymore. And revolution seems impossible against a president with tanks.

I'm stumped. Come on folks, we have to come up with something new.

[Agnosticsherbet]

13. It won't matter if it is Hillary or Warren, or which Democrat that runs.

The business interests of the BBB and other of their stripe noticed that the Teaparty doesn't give a damn about oiling the wheels of business and keeping the money flowing. They are deeply ideological and believe they can go back to a system that never existed, and once back there it will be all sweetness and light and everyone will pledge allegiance to the lords prayer in school and it will be a White Christian nation run by and for white Christian men, and none of those gay folk will be able to challenge the manhood of an upstanding heterosexual male.

As an agnostic, I don't believe in the PTB.

[librechik]

17. I didn't either, until I started reading Peter Dale Scott's books.

Politics and history are deeper and grimier than is ever admitted in orthodox readings of the public record. As a historian myself, I can't ignore evidence once I see it. It clicks indelibly into a matrix of connections. But that's just me.

And you're right, they only use the Tea Party for legitimacy (!!!), and they are deeply ideological. Some of them are zealots of the worst "Christian" stripe, others are just as ideologically driven by business (i.e., making war profitable) concerns. It's impossible to say for sure, because these people destroy evidence, kill witnesses, and buy presidents. The sweetness and light bit is the dust they blow in the eyes of their vile followers.

Since there is so little evidence, how can one believe? I continue to investigate as a historian, not a believer.

[Agnosticsherbet]

25. I will check out his books. n/t

[warrior1]

7. just wait until

he's on the national stage with all the other teabagger crazies. He'll have to compete with them to get the nomination. He'll fall apart. He's a coward.

[scheming daemons]

8. He would be dangerous in a general election.... But getting there would be hard for him.

Winning the primaries would be very tough for him.

[etherealtruth]

38. You make an excellent point

The tea-bagging knuckle draggers much prefer the Cuccinelli (sp?/ Va governors race) type candidate, and back that type of candidate in primaries (extremist view on social issues).

While acknowledging Christie is a true right winger ... he is not the tea bagging insane type of right-wingers that group has been looking for in the primaries.

Christie's larger than life persona (unfortunately) would serve him well in the general election

[TwilightGardener]

10. If it's Christie vs. Clinton, it's going to be a nasty brawl, but one I won't be

terribly invested in.

[Initech]

48. Depends who the running mate is.

If Christie picks a lunatic fringe extremist like Rand Paul or Ted Cruz, they can kiss their chances goodbye. If he picks a more moderate leaning candidate then yes there could be a good fight.

[libdem4life]

11. He has not been nationally vetted. Heard there is some book out or some information that

he has lots of political skeletons. New Jersey? No doubt there are plenty that can be contained at a local/state level. And frankly, he doesn't look healthy.

I think we'll see him move to the Right for the nomination, hopefully we can keep the fawning Democrats on a leash, which should more clearly express his RW views.

[Agnosticsherbet]

14. That may be true, and I am sure that vested interest (Bush Clan)

will see that those come out if they decide for a third Bush. Until the Bush's pull out their CIA operatives and make Christie squeal like a little girl, he will remain the darling of the Big Business Centrists.

[libdem4life]

21. Agreed. Jeb may think it's "his turn" and he's the one that concerns me the most. He's got the

organization just ready to plug in. It is early, but billion dollar campaigns do not turn on a proverbial dime. Other than Hillary, he's the only one with a national organizational head start.

[exboyfil]

36. He also has a last name that is poison

You can summarize it no better than when Romney said there would be no more Iraqs. Talk about torpedoing their standard bearer.

[libdem4life]

43. I don't know...a lot of Dems got on that bus, as well. Don't believe the fat lady has sung just yet

[StevieM]

15. Of course he can win, just like Romney and McCain could have won. But they didn't win.

And we will defeat Chris Christie too, assuming he is the nominee.

[6000eliot]

16. Exit polling has him losing to Hillary by 7 points IN NJ!

[Beacool]

18. Here's a snapshot of Christie's wonderful leadership in NJ:

I didn't draft this list but it perfectly describes Christie's past 4 years.

1) Property taxes have jumped as he has pushed tax cuts for the state's wealthiest.

2) He has increased taxes on lower middle class and lower class families and sabotaged efforts to build affordable housing.

3) He has transferred $1 billion from clean energy funds "to balance the budget" and has gutted the states pollution efforts.

4) NJ's credit rating has dropped as he has played at budget reform but actually made transfers from funds inherited from Gov. Corzine in energy, transit projects and open space purchases.

5) He removed two highly qualified State Supreme Court Justices without cause leaving two seats open on the court as the state assembly has refused to support his nominees.

6) He vetoed a bill that would increase the NJ minimum wage from $7.25 to $8.25*. He vetoed marriage equality. He opposes equal pay for women. He's anti-union. He has cut police forces across the state by nearly 1000 officers.

7) As to Hurricane Sandy: His administration parked the NJ Transit trains in a low lying area where they flooded (including where I live, half of my town was flooded); minimized the need for relief for renters and Spanish Speaking neighborhoods; and awarded a no-bid contract for cleanup to a political ally.

*The minimum wage was a statewide question in yesterday's ballot and it passed.

[Historic NY]

35. Killed off an already in progress ...multi-billion dollar rail tunnel

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/christie-wrong-on-federal-estimates-for-n-j-tunnel-gao-says.html

[Beacool]

40. That was one of the first things that he did when he took office.

It should have been on the list. It was an oversight. It took years to get the money for the tunnel and he nixed it with a snap of his chubby fingers.

[Historic NY]

44. I know lots of people, engineers, etc that lost their jobs when this sunk.........

meanwhile NY State, forges head with a new Tapan Zee....Excelsior!!!

http://www.lohud.com/section/NEWS13&template=theme&theme=tzb&keywords=tappanzeebridge&title=Building%20a%20new%20Tappan%20Zee%20Bridge

[Beacool]

46. I know............

And the dopes in my state (including many Democrats) voted for him in a landslide.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

19. Christie + Rubio ticket wins.

I truly believe that. I have long thought Christie is the GOPer with the best shot of taking on Clinton, even more so that Jeb.

[HappyMe]

20. That's entirely possible.

I don't think that your garden variety repub is going to be wild about a tea party crazy and give them a vote. The tea party crazies are loud, but I don't think their numbers are huge.

[Auntie Bush]

23. Christy will have a better shot for the presidency if Democrats keep badmouthing Hillary.

[Agnosticsherbet]

28. It doesn't have anything to do with badmouthing (or criticizing) Hillary Clinton.

It is whether he can win the Republican Primary. Republican's have a history of nominating someone who appeals to the Big Business Conservative Wing of the party. The Koch brothers are not really part of that wing, being rich ideologues of the old John Birch Society. Cruz with his Cominionist religious upbringing is more the Teaparty style.

Christie can do that. The Big Bossiness Wing is upset at the Teaparty crazies and don't want anything to do with them because the Teaparty is a radical group with no interest in business as usual but areal interest in deconstructing modern America and rebuilding and returning it to the thrilling days of White dominated yesteryear that lives in their own paranoid fantasies.

I suspect she will win the nomination unless someone that excites the youth wing and the progressive wing, as Obama did. comes along. Bad mouthing aside, I think she will kick Christies Ass, but it will not be as easy as kicking Cruz's Ass. A lot of the big business wing of the Republican Party will back Hillary, or any Democrat, against the crazies.

[last1standing]

26. In 1976 everyone said Reagan never stood a chance at the white house.

It only took one election for that opinion to change.

I'm with you; I'm a little frightened by how flippantly otherwise intelligent people brush off the concept of Christie, Paul (either of them), Cruz, Santorum or some other idiot, fundie, working-class hating, repub winning the presidency.

They keep saying that repubs can never win another national election because the numbers aren't there. Of course, a quick scan of DU will tell you how many people thought that repubs could never take back congress after their thrashing that year. The generational shift they talked about only lasted two years.

[Agnosticsherbet]

29. The generational shift didn't happen in 2010 because it didn't show up to vote in a non-presidential

election.

Hope they will be wiser in 2014.

[last1standing]

30. Whatever the reason, republicans do still win, whether we want to believe it or not.

It would be wise to remember that before dismissing someone like Christie.

[NuclearDem]

27. Prep the Tafttub.

[Agnosticsherbet]

31. I think the opositon reaserach will find dirt other than that in the bathtub ring.

But Taft was elected once.

[NuclearDem]

32. Well, they didn't have Mr. Plinkett running opposition research back then.

[DonCoquixote]

33. Churches

Even those that hate CC, willstillvote for him. Why?, because their Churches will tell them to.

[napkinz]

39. the true face of Chris Christie

[Agnosticsherbet]

41. So what your are saying that he is the "Business as Usual" candidate.

He is the poster child of Corporate Republicans.
That image may piss of liberals, but we are not his target audience. And what we see as a cut will be sold as "Fiscally Conservative."

[Agnosticsherbet]

42. There is a great post elsewhere about New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (R), as a possible VP

for Christie.

Last Night, We Got Our First Look At Chris Christie With The Woman He Might Pick For Vice President

She would be a choice designed to draw support from women and the Hispanic voter Demographic. both areas where Republicans are weak.

[kelliekat44]

45. I really think that by the time 2016 is here, New Jersey will not even be won by him. Just watch

how his governing unfolds. Unless he changes his positions drastically he will forever be a NJ star.

[Incitatus]

47. Of course, you should never underestimate your opponent.

I think Obama had some very smart people helping with his campaign and hopefully our candidate will use some of those same people next election.