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Texas Lawyer

(350 posts) Thu Nov 1, 2012, 06:53 PM Nov 2012

The rolling Forecast Model now ... model gives President Obama an 86.84% probability of winning

The Utah Valley University DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast Model now projects that Barack Obama will receive 51.44% of the national two-party popular vote to Mitt Romney's 48.56%. The model's Electoral College prediction remains unchanged, projecting that President Obama will win 281 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 257. Overall, the model gives President Obama an 86.84% probability of winning a majority of Electoral College votes and winning re-election.

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

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The rolling Forecast Model now ... model gives President Obama an 86.84% probability of winning (Original Post) Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 OP
I Like It But They Are A Bit More Bearish On Obama Than Some Of The Other Aggregators/nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #1
I like it that even the most bearish aggregators also agree Obama is overwhelmingly likely to win Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #2
I Agree...And A Bump Back To The Top... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #3
Thanks for the bump! Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #4
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