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2012-11-01T12:49:27+00:00

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/adp-cancels-365000-private-jobs-created-2012 Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historical December 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announced that going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning. The chart below shows the old data series (which can still be found at the St. Louis Fed), and the new series, which can be extracted from the advance leaked press release. The cumulative difference is the black line. It needs no explanation. What is also of note, is that had ADP used its revised methodology, it would have missed 5 out of the past 7 Wall Street consensus estimates. As an added bonus, whereas according to the previous release, which we were lucky enough to tag here, the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs. Perhaps it is time to rerun the Ohio presidential speeches one more time... clip

Post removed Thu Nov 1, 2012, 08:49 AM Nov 2012

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4 replies

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Post removed (Original Post) Post removed Nov 2012 OP

What point are you trying to make OP? nm nc4bo Nov 2012 #1

The OP won't be answering... SidDithers Nov 2012 #2

As just a private citizen living in a rural village, I'll tell you what I believe. Skidmore Nov 2012 #3

Five more days blogslut Nov 2012 #4

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)

1. What point are you trying to make OP? nm

Reply to Post removed (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 09:00 AM

Nov 2012

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)

2. The OP won't be answering...

Reply to nc4bo (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 09:01 AM

Nov 2012

at least not as "Trivium".

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=293653&sub=trans

Sid

Skidmore

(37,364 posts)

3. As just a private citizen living in a rural village, I'll tell you what I believe.

Reply to Post removed (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 09:01 AM

Nov 2012

I don't believe most politicians or their motives. I don't believe anything attributable to Wall Street. I don't trust businesses to report anything accurately, or the Chamber of Commerce. And I certainly don't put stock in any information coming out of fund managers or professional organizations. In the current climate, none of them are trustworthy. Period. We have witnessed four years of collusion to screw the American economy and its people six ways to Sunday. Until you can demonstrate that the business world has anything in mind other than subverting democracy, I have no interest in data sets.

blogslut

(38,021 posts)

4. Five more days

Reply to Post removed (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 09:04 AM

Nov 2012

Keep it together, me. Don't go off. Just hang on and this madness will be over.