General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFiveThirtyEight Updated! - 10/28/2012
FiveThirtyEight has been updated for October 28th, 2012.
Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's Now Cast is now in sync with the Princeton Election Consortium's projection.
538 Now: Electoral Vote: 299.6 Obama, 238.2 Romney / PEC Projection: 300 Obama, 238 Romney
Edit: Seems like my projection of 303 Obama, 235 Romney is coming true!
Kber
(5,043 posts)mucifer
(23,539 posts)electoral-vote.com has Obama 284 rmoney at 235 and 19 toss up.
not bad guys!
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)salinen
(7,288 posts)doesn't get money where he needs to be.
ananda
(28,858 posts)BainsBane
(53,032 posts)With 299.8 electoral votes.
JanT
(229 posts)Gobama! i have voted and so far everyone i have talked has voted also. we are all counting on a great win for Obama and other Dems in Wash state. Mr President
Sadiedog
(353 posts)nt
Thekaspervote
(32,762 posts)Love to see those numbers go up!! Thanks for posting
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)ISW
(81 posts)DesertRat
(27,995 posts)calimary
(81,238 posts)Gonna be battling the bad guys all the way to the bitter end.
lobodons
(1,290 posts)Taggs voting machines in Ohio and Kathy "don't worry, I'll bring the computer back in the morning" Nicklaus in Wisconsin.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)Quixote1818
(28,930 posts)and with each passing day this seems more and more clear. If it were going to close we would be seeing some movement by now. Also, Virgina and Colorado have now swung slightly into Obama's column giving him some insurance if Ohio were to fall through.
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)mountain grammy
(26,620 posts)12AngryBorneoWildmen
(536 posts)Style points advice. Make these points- Edit: Seems like my projection of 303 Obama, 235 Romney is coming true!-to real asshole Romney/Ryan backers before AND after it's actualized.
Mkap
(223 posts)My prediction for the battleground states
Romney wins Flordia, Virginia and NC
Obama wins Iowa, Ohio, NH, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada
If Virginia goes Obama's way then we will really now that Romney is screwed
Quixote1818
(28,930 posts)Virginia is going to be paper thin! But you are right if Virginia goes into Obama's column early, it will mean certain disaster for Romney!
B Calm
(28,762 posts)I'll breath a sigh of relief when Obama wins.
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)Bigredhunk
(1,349 posts)KauaiK
(544 posts)The GOP thugs in the various states together with the war chest of Karl Rove et al will try to steal the election and/or tie up the election results with lawsuits to take to the Supremes. I will admit, however, that Silver in sync with Princeton is encouraging!
jonthebru
(1,034 posts)but its just a number. Turn out or GOTV; whatever it is called, is the most critical thing.
I know how I feel, I can imagine there are millions of voters who feel a similar anxiety as I do.
go west young man
(4,856 posts)Remember who owns the machines. From Wikipedia.
The 2004 election brought new attention to the issue of exit polls.[49] Discrepancies existed between early exit poll information and the officially reported results. These discrepancies led some, including British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to prematurely conclude that Kerry won the election.[50] Expert opinion was divided concerning what inferences should be drawn from the cited discrepancies.[51][52]
Mitofsky International, the company responsible for exit polling for the National Election Pool and its member news organizations, released a report detailing the 2004 election's exit polling.[53] At issue were the early release of some poll information, issues regarding correcting exit poll data using actual voter totals, and differences between exit polls and official results.
The NEP report stated that "the size of the average exit poll error ... was higher in 2004 than in previous years for which we have data." and that exit polling estimates overstated Kerry's share of the vote in 26 states by more than one standard error and overestimated Bush's share in 4 states by more than one standard error.[53] It concluded that these discrepancies between the exit polls and the official results were "most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters". Polling expert John Zogby later called this explanation "preposterous".[54] The NEP report further stated that "Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment."[53]
A study performed by the Caltech / MIT Voting Technology Project concluded that "there is no evidence, based on exit polls, that electronic voting machines were used to steal the 2004 election for President Bush."[55] This study was criticized for using data that had been corrected to match the official count, and thus "essentially analyzing rounding error".[56] On December 5, 2004 Charles Stewart III of MIT released a revised report which, he said, used pre-corrected data.[57] Two days later, however, Warren Mitofsky, who had overseen the exit polling, stated that the pre-corrected data were proprietary and would not be released.[58]
One paper (and a follow-up book) concluded that discrepancies in the exit polls were evidence that the election results were off,[59][60] though others alleged this paper was unscientific.[61][62]
Following the 2004 election, researchers looked at ways in which polling methodologies might be flawed[63] and explored ways to improve polling in the future.[64
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/pictures/was-the-2004-election-stolen-20060601/ohio-gallery-16543658
lexw
(804 posts)I remember relaxing early in the afternoon thinking we had it, and my right-wing co-workers were frowningone of them even saying "Looks like we got another Democrat for a president." I recall hearing Bush saying, "I've done all I can...." with a smirk (if I remember correctly).
Then, around 6pm...suddenly...Bush was on top. I was shocked!!
This race is toooo close....I'll never relax in an election again.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)(psst*Wolf has a gun to my head!)