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Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:16 PM

FiveThirtyEight Updated! - 10/28/2012

FiveThirtyEight has been updated for October 28th, 2012.

Nov. 6 Forecast: Electoral Vote: 296.6 Obama, 241.4 Romney (PBO: Up 1.1 from yesterday) / Chance of Winning: Obama 74.6%, Romney 25.4% (PBO: Up 1%) / Popular Vote: 50.4% Obama, 48.7% Romney (PBO: Up .1%)


Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's Now Cast is now in sync with the Princeton Election Consortium's projection.

538 Now: Electoral Vote: 299.6 Obama, 238.2 Romney / PEC Projection: 300 Obama, 238 Romney

Edit: Seems like my projection of 303 Obama, 235 Romney is coming true!

30 replies, 4828 views

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Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply FiveThirtyEight Updated! - 10/28/2012 (Original post)
AaronMayorga Oct 2012 OP
Kber Oct 2012 #1
mucifer Oct 2012 #2
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #3
salinen Oct 2012 #30
ananda Oct 2012 #4
BainsBane Oct 2012 #5
JanT Oct 2012 #6
Sadiedog Oct 2012 #14
Thekaspervote Oct 2012 #7
Honeycombe8 Oct 2012 #8
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #9
ISW Oct 2012 #10
DesertRat Oct 2012 #11
calimary Oct 2012 #12
lobodons Oct 2012 #19
uponit7771 Oct 2012 #13
Quixote1818 Oct 2012 #18
Ellipsis Oct 2012 #15
mountain grammy Oct 2012 #16
12AngryBorneoWildmen Oct 2012 #17
Mkap Oct 2012 #20
Quixote1818 Oct 2012 #22
B Calm Oct 2012 #21
LineNew Reply .
Ellipsis Oct 2012 #23
Bigredhunk Oct 2012 #24
KauaiK Oct 2012 #25
jonthebru Oct 2012 #26
go west young man Oct 2012 #27
lexw Oct 2012 #28
Kurovski Oct 2012 #29

Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:20 PM

1. Good news - thanks so much for posting!!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:21 PM

2. Real clear politics has Obama at 290 and rmoney at 248

electoral-vote.com has Obama 284 rmoney at 235 and 19 toss up.

not bad guys!

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Response to mucifer (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:25 PM

3. 19 toss ups has me a little nervous, but I'll take it.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 08:35 PM

30. but 19

 

doesn't get money where he needs to be.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:26 PM

4. Kick!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:27 PM

5. BO is 80.1% in the now cast

With 299.8 electoral votes.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:30 PM

6. good news i like what i see.

Gobama! i have voted and so far everyone i have talked has voted also. we are all counting on a great win for Obama and other Dems in Wash state. Mr President

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Response to JanT (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:15 AM

14. Hi! I`m another Democrat from WA.

nt

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:31 PM

7. Yippie skippy

Love to see those numbers go up!! Thanks for posting

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:32 PM

8. Woo Hoo! Thanks for the update, Aaron! nt

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:36 PM

9. Slow but sure!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:41 PM

10. How sweet it is.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:49 PM

11. Made my night!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:58 PM

12. Don't get complacent, anybody! We don't have this thing locked in yet.

Gonna be battling the bad guys all the way to the bitter end.

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Response to calimary (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:24 AM

19. Especially when the "bad guys" own the voting machines!!

Taggs voting machines in Ohio and Kathy "don't worry, I'll bring the computer back in the morning" Nicklaus in Wisconsin.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:13 AM

13. What is upping his chances? regards

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:20 AM

18. My guess is Ohio seems solid and is not moving toward Romney

and with each passing day this seems more and more clear. If it were going to close we would be seeing some movement by now. Also, Virgina and Colorado have now swung slightly into Obama's column giving him some insurance if Ohio were to fall through.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:18 AM

15. K&R Zombie squirrel approved


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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:19 AM

16. ok, can we stop now and just go with the projections?

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:20 AM

17. A.M. - Fantastic

Style points advice. Make these points- Edit: Seems like my projection of 303 Obama, 235 Romney is coming true!-to real asshole Romney/Ryan backers before AND after it's actualized.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:24 AM

20. My prediction

My prediction for the battleground states

Romney wins Flordia, Virginia and NC

Obama wins Iowa, Ohio, NH, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada

If Virginia goes Obama's way then we will really now that Romney is screwed

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Response to Mkap (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:43 AM

22. We may know the results of Ohio going for Obama before we know who wins Virginia

Virginia is going to be paper thin! But you are right if Virginia goes into Obama's column early, it will mean certain disaster for Romney!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:28 AM

21. I still don't trust the e voting machines!

I'll breath a sigh of relief when Obama wins.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:44 AM

23. .

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:44 AM

24. Giddeyup!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:53 AM

25. I will not relax until Rmoney concedes

The GOP thugs in the various states together with the war chest of Karl Rove et al will try to steal the election and/or tie up the election results with lawsuits to take to the Supremes. I will admit, however, that Silver in sync with Princeton is encouraging!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 01:26 AM

26. Personally I would like to see him above 300

but its just a number. Turn out or GOTV; whatever it is called, is the most critical thing.
I know how I feel, I can imagine there are millions of voters who feel a similar anxiety as I do.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 01:30 AM

27. We need to win by a large margin or they will attempt to steal it as in 2004.

Remember who owns the machines. From Wikipedia.

The 2004 election brought new attention to the issue of exit polls. Discrepancies existed between early exit poll information and the officially reported results. These discrepancies led some, including British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to prematurely conclude that Kerry won the election. Expert opinion was divided concerning what inferences should be drawn from the cited discrepancies.
Mitofsky International, the company responsible for exit polling for the National Election Pool and its member news organizations, released a report detailing the 2004 election's exit polling. At issue were the early release of some poll information, issues regarding correcting exit poll data using actual voter totals, and differences between exit polls and official results.
The NEP report stated that "the size of the average exit poll error ... was higher in 2004 than in previous years for which we have data." and that exit polling estimates overstated Kerry's share of the vote in 26 states by more than one standard error and overestimated Bush's share in 4 states by more than one standard error. It concluded that these discrepancies between the exit polls and the official results were "most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters". Polling expert John Zogby later called this explanation "preposterous". The NEP report further stated that "Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment."
A study performed by the Caltech / MIT Voting Technology Project concluded that "there is no evidence, based on exit polls, that electronic voting machines were used to steal the 2004 election for President Bush." This study was criticized for using data that had been corrected to match the official count, and thus "essentially analyzing rounding error". On December 5, 2004 Charles Stewart III of MIT released a revised report which, he said, used pre-corrected data. Two days later, however, Warren Mitofsky, who had overseen the exit polling, stated that the pre-corrected data were proprietary and would not be released.
One paper (and a follow-up book) concluded that discrepancies in the exit polls were evidence that the election results were off, though others alleged this paper was unscientific.
Following the 2004 election, researchers looked at ways in which polling methodologies might be flawed and explored ways to improve polling in the future.
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/pictures/was-the-2004-election-stolen-20060601/ohio-gallery-16543658

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 01:42 AM

28. I keep thinking about 2004...

I remember relaxing early in the afternoon thinking we had it, and my right-wing co-workers were frowning—one of them even saying "Looks like we got another Democrat for a president." I recall hearing Bush saying, "I've done all I can...." with a smirk (if I remember correctly).

Then, around 6pm...suddenly...Bush was on top. I was shocked!!

This race is toooo close....I'll never relax in an election again.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 03:32 AM

29. Too close to call.

(psst*Wolf has a gun to my head!)

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