nate s. 538 updated ---- Nowcast 297 - 241 ---- 78.6% Obama to win ---- (Link attached)

[Ellipsis]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/

[flamingdem]

1. rock n' roll

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. those are still yesterday's numbers. new column...old numbers (hoping it updates tonight)

[mucifer]

3. real clear politics and electoral-vote.com

have good electoral college predictions, too.

[Tutonic]

4. Lovin that effeminate Nate guy

Romentum is really working...rectroactively.

[mzmolly]

6. LOL.

[GetTheRightVote]

5. still good to hear the odds are with our guy...

[Justice4All1]

7. yea, we don't want the wrong guy to win.

RMoney would be a disaster.

[BlueStreak]

8. That's back to where he was on Sep 17

which was after the conventions, during the 47% and a couple of weeks before the first debate.

The public (and media) generally over-react. They over-reacted to the empty chair and the brazen 47% tape and all the other mistakes Romney made during that period. Some of that bounce was hard core Republicans just getting exasperated with Romney. They were never going to vote for Obama. They were just having a frustrating month.

What we are looking at now is closer to the real number. Obama still has some upside as the rest of the polls show entirely post-debate results. In the next day or two most of the media will give up on that "Mittmentum" garbage narrative and start telling it straighter. That will also give Obama a little bit of upside as the polling wraps up this week.

Does anybody know if Silver's model tries to factor in the early voting information?

It is interesting that Silver has the odds of winning OH at 76% and WI at 86%. Yet, it does appear that Romney is turning to WI as his last chance. If that is happening, it is because the Romney campaign calculates that:

a) less early voting is done in WI, so there is better chance of overtaking Obama; and

b) there have been fewer ads overall in WI, so WI voters might be more impressionable then OH voters at this stage.

[mzmolly]

9. Lots of encouraging news in the most recent analysis:

To the extent that there was a trend in the state polls, it was slightly favorable for Mr. Obama. Among the eight polls that had previously published numbers after the first presidential debate in Denver, Mr. Obama gained about one percentage point, on average.

...

Mr. Romney’s bounce has receded some since his post-Denver peak.

...

The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama leading the popular vote along with the Electoral College, because it uses both state and national polls to calibrate its estimate of where the vote stands.