Prof Sam Wang from Princeton Election Consortium on today's probabilities

[Poiuyt]

Today, the race is quite close. However, note this. In terms of the Electoral College, President Obama has been ahead on every single day of the campaign, without exception.

I would then give the following verdict: Indeed the race is close, but it seems stable. For the last week, there is no evidence that conditions have been moving toward Romney. There is always the chance that I may have to eat my words – but that will require movement that is not yet apparent in polls.

The popular vote is a different story. I estimate an approximately 25% chance that the popular vote and the electoral vote will go in opposite directions – a “Bush v. Gore scenario”. I regard this as a serious risk, since it would engender prolonged bitterness.

In summary: Ro-mentum!

Update: Via Marginal Revolution: for about $1,250 it is evidently possible to manipulate InTrade. This morning’s swing toward Romney was caused by one trader’s manipulation. Ro-mentum!!

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/#more-7826

BTW, Wang is being sarcastic regarding "Ro-mentum." It's a takeoff of Joementum. He's been holding steady on his prediction of Pres Obama getting 290 Electoral votes for some time now.

[powergirl]

1. Obama has been ahead on every single day iin the Electoral college -

without exception.

And that's a fact, Jack!

[sadbear]

2. This is where we begin to see republican desperation.

The dynamics of the race have not changed and only something BIG at this point will swing enough EV's Romney's way for him to win.

Don't put ANYTHING past a desperate republican.

[WinkyDink]

3. IOW: "It's a 75% probability that the popular vote will match the Electoral vote." This THEME

of "Mitt will win the Popular vote, BUT" is being propounded FIERCELY now, and I do NOT believe in coincidences.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

4. Do you think it is sarcasm?

I have been wondering all day just how Intrade took this sharp turn downward....