Obama Leading by 4-5 points In Every Region Except the South (Romney Losing the Election)

[berni_mccoy]

From Gallup yesterday, they claim Obama is losing to Romney 52-48% on Likely voters sampled between Oct 9-15. See: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx


However, when you break the numbers down by Region:

East: O(52) - R(48) (O+4)
Midwest: O(52) - R(48) (O+4)
South: O(39) - R(61) (R+22)
West: O(53) - R(47) (O+6)

Let's consider what that means. The margin could be R+99 in the south, and it won't mean anything if Obama maintains a lead of 4-5 points everywhere else.

Deriving the weighting we see that Gallup weighted those numbers as follows:

East: 23%
Midwest: 23%
South: 32%
West: 22%

Let's assume Romney was winning in the South by 99 points. If he were, then the national result would be 64 - 36 for Romney. But he'd still lose the election due to the electoral college. Winning by a large margin in the South won't help Romney if he is losing everywhere else.

To see this, let's give him every state in the South, including VA and NC. Even if Romney still wins NH, NV and CO, he only gets 267 EVs. (see this scenario here: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/custom-presidential-election-map#nkamdnjannjjjenje )

Without OH and PA, Romney really can't win, no matter what the margin is in the South. The National Polls really don't mean anything unless they are broken down by region.

Obama is winning.

[berni_mccoy]

1. Kicking for Truth.

[reflection]

2. I'll kick and rec that. n/t

[bigtree]

3. true true

k&r

[Roland99]

4. *Like*

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Trey9007]

5. I partially agree...

I think its a tie +/- 1%. But I think Obama has way more viable paths to an electoral college vicotry. Whereas, Romney only has maybe 3 viable paths.

I dont really trust Gallup polling. I'm more of a Rasmuseen kind of guy. I know many here consider them to be a right leaning Pollster. But from what I can tell, they usually come the closest to matching the final result, and Gallup is usually way off, when it comes to the final numbers. So Gallup saying Romney is up by 6 means very little to me. Barring something big occuring to swing things one way or another, I think we're gonna see 2004 all over again thin Nov. But this time, I think the Dems will the results alot better than 2004.

[powergirl]

6. Excellent Analysis and it is supported by

Nate Silver - he still finds Obama in the lead despite all the polling noise. It's about the electoral college. period.

[Lex]

9. Obama's campaign has always been about the Electoral College votes stacking up

and that was their strategy from the very beginning of course. Mittens has been too busy woo-ing the teabaggers and so he's way ahead in teabagger country and not where it matters.

[LP2K12]

7. Here's another...

rec. Woo hoo!

[Lex]

8. That's clearly why he's tried to swing moderate in the last few weeks, but

it's too little, too late. He got caught up in making the tea-baggers happy and he's reaping the benefit of that (by just gaining in the South and in the rural areas).

[regnaD kciN]

10. Gallup's numbers STILL don't add up...

Obama only up 4 in the northeast, despite leading in NY, MA, and MD by double digits? The only state he has no chance of winning there is WV -- he'll probably pick up everywhere else.

Even the 22-point margin in the south looks untenable, considering the close races in VA, NC, and FL. And other polls from southern states, although showing Obama far behind, aren't showing anything like a 22-point margin.

Something really "smells bad" about this poll -- and the regional breakdown doesn't come close to explaining it.

[Trey9007]

16. Regarding the northeast....

I think you're forgetting about NH. Its a toss up there. I know they only have 4 electoral votes, but of the first reutrns on East coast, NH is the one Ill be watching most. If Obama wins NH, I think his number of paths to 271 increases even more.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

41. Agreed

Gallup has also shown Obama with a +50% approval rating for the past couple weeks. Something's not consistent here.

[Liberalynn]

11. Kick

[Hutzpa]

12. With one exception from the South, Texas.

I have a deep feeling Texas is going blue this election, deep feeling.

[MrSlayer]

21. No way.

If that were the case no Republican could win the Presidency ever again.

Texas might go blue by 2020 but not this year.

[Hutzpa]

24. Why do people keep saying no way?

Do you understands the demographics in Texas? Have you seen the statistics? The only reason I can see Texas not going blue will be because of the people that counts the vote.

[MrSlayer]

32. I see the trends, I see the way it's going.

But it's not enough to carry it this year. The state will be purple in 2016 and blue by 2020.

[Hutzpa]

33. Do you know there were democrats in Texas before Hispanics?

because this silly argument is based on the Hispanic demographic.

[MrSlayer]

34. No. I had no idea.

You're reaching for shit here.

Yeah, those Democrats have sure been an unstoppable force in Texas. C'mon.

If Texas goes blue this year I'll give you everything of worth I own and go live there.

Give me a break.

[Hutzpa]

36. No, those democrats elected Ann Richards

they are the democrats I'm talking about, the sleeper democrats.

If Texas goes blue this year I'll give you everything of worth I own and go live there.

I might just take you up on that bet, Mitt.

[MrSlayer]

37. Now that's just low.

I didn't bet you, I said I'd give it to you. That bastard wouldn't give away a dead skunk at an armadillo's picnic.

Never do this again.

[Hutzpa]

44. lol

aw'right, aw'right, then the offer still stands.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

45. Ted Cruz is leading by double digits

Yup,. it's going blue, just like Rick Perry was NEVER getting elected again.

[Hutzpa]

46. Do you know who Ted Cruz is?

what poll are you reading that double digit lead from?

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

48. I know who Ted Cruz is....

He's a teabagging idiot the "good people" of Texas are lining up to back him just like they back Perry, Hutchinson, Cornyn and yes, Rmoney.

As far as the polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/senate-outlook#TX

I'm tired of the Texas is "going blue" meme. Call me when a Democrat wins a state wide seat, never mind a Democrat for President coming within half a million votes. You must have Stockholm Syndrome to still live in that craphole (if you do).

[AzDar]

13. K & R

[reformist2]

14. It kind of makes you see the value of the Electoral College, no?

[Comrade_McKenzie]

15. I'm still working out my opinion on that one, but after this I admit I'm liking the EC. nt

[Nye Bevan]

17. YES. And another thing about the Electoral College......

quite a few DUers worry about voting machine integrity in places like Ohio and Florida.

With a popular vote election, imagine having to worry about voting machine integrity in Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, etc......

[marions ghost]

47. So without the Electoral College...

we'd have to have fair elections and an election system that resists tampering? (Like other western democracies?) Instead of this archaic, dysfunctional sham of a "system."

So Election Reform and loss of the EC should happen at the same time?

[Nye Bevan]

49. Whatever system you have, a popular vote election is more vulnerable to cheating.

No system is totally cheat proof.

And any time we move to a system that is more vulnerable to cheating, that favors those with less integrity who are more likely to try to cheat (i.e. the Republicans).

[marions ghost]

50. Welcome to Banana Republic USA

Many voting systems around the world are much less cheat prone--check it out, I don't have time to fill you in.

Our system could not be MORE vulnerable to cheating IMO, esp with the widespread use of touchscreens that flip votes routinely.

You didn't address my point which was:

Election reform could make it possible to eliminate the EC.

[bemildred]

18. It makes me see what's wrong with the electoral college.

Presidents should be elected by national popular vote.

[reformist2]

19. Even if one region filled with racists tips the balance?

The electoral college pretty much eliminates that from ever happening.

[bemildred]

22. Actually, it allows it to happen.

We can outvote them easily. It's much like the filibuter in the Senate, it allows minorities to control the agenda, by giving smaller states extra votes.

[Nye Bevan]

20. Do you trust states like Texas to report an accurate popular vote count?

And how would you feel about a recount of the entire United States in the event of a close election?

[bemildred]

23. Straw man. There is no part of the present system I trust.

Arguing that the present system is untrustworthy seems like a poor argument for not changing it.

[Nye Bevan]

25. The present system gives no scope for red states to cheat (nt)

[bemildred]

28. So you trust Texas to report honestly? nt

[Nye Bevan]

29. I trust that Romney will win all of the Texas electoral votes.

With the Electoral College, that is all Texas can do to help Romney. With a popular vote election, however, the potential shenanigans would be unlimited.

[bemildred]

30. But then, without the electoral college, couldn't Texas give more votes to Rmoney?

It's a big state, so It's votes count less compared to small states, like here in California on the other side.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

40. we need an electoral college type system, but without electors

lose the folks who can change their minds and tip an election, and instead award points to each state (either each winner take all or each is proportional - figure that part out later) that go to the candidates.

This keeps certain states and regions from dominating, but allows the result to be determined by voters rather than electors.

[bemildred]

43. I think we should get rid of the states.

Other countries don't put up with this pathetic "states rights" shit.

If they don't want to be part of the USA, let 'em go. Have a referendum or something and settle it.

And if they stay, then they join the rest of country and the rest of us and get with the program, stop pretending they are not part of the country when it becomes inconvenient. I mean the disloyalty and whining, the violence, the waste ...

FORWARD!, not BACK!

[cali]

26. I think it's too close to call. It's not about the national vote- or even the regional vote

it's about specific individual states- and in those states it's really close.

[outsideworld]

27. K&R

[MatthewStLouis]

31. Just anecdotal, but my Catholic great aunt in Western PA HATES HATES HATES Rmoney.

I was surprised to learn this since she is quite socially conservative. It was nice news though.

[B Calm]

39. Most republicans do, but they hate Obama too!

[one_voice]

35. *knocking wood*

:bigsmile*

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

38. Willard Jefferson Davis

"As God as my witness, Planet Kolob shall rise again!"

[BumRushDaShow]

42. They actually posited this

on Mourning Joke this morning.

But I still can't imagine Rmoney winning the popular vote while losing the most populous states on both coasts.