The latest battleground state and national polls are in

[WilliamPitt]

The latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)

Ohio: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)

Pennsylvania: Obama 43%, Romney 40% (Siena)

The most recent national polls:

DailyKos/Public Policy Polling: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%

Washington Times/Zogby: Obama 45%, Romney 45%

Source: http://politicalwire.com/

An entire Summer and early Fall's worth of gains have been all but wiped out.

[adigal]

1. Since Americans appear to be stupid enough to be convinced

by a sociopath lying for 90 minutes, rather than by what a good president has done to save the economy, then we deserve the government we get. It might be time to hunker down or move.

[Arugula Latte]

2. Months of Romney blunders reversed by one night.

Pathetic. Sometimes I hate this stupid country.

[lunasun]

8. were jjust looking for an excuse not to vote for Obama

rmoney was not that good or obama that bad

[renie408]

75. Exactly.

In some twisted way, I almost hope Romney wins. Cause I am going to sit back and laugh while everything just goes to shit.

Or cry.

Or puke.

Or something...

[Grammy23]

139. Part of me feels the exact same way-----

If Romney wins and then he drives us straight back to that ditch we just crawled up from, it will be really hard for me not to go to Republican voting relatives and friends and ask them...How do you like your guy now?? They are soooo convinced that Romney is the answer to their prayers (and in some cases, that is quite literal) and are voting on one or two issues. Things like abortion and marriage equality are the things driving their choice. The idiots (and my apologies to idiots everywhere) do not have the sense that God Gave a Goat to realize that those are issues that will have little or nothing to do with THEIR lives personally. Yes, some of them will be touched by those issues, but the vast majority will NOT. It is the economic issues that will impact them. Some of them are just getting their 401 Ks and things like that back to where they were before the steep economic dive in 2008 an 2009. And they are willing to risk all of that again because of something that will probably never be a real issue for them.

The sad thing is that those of us who will vote for Obama will still get the shaft again if Romney wins. I'm not sure I have the heart to hang tough again through another economic free fall. Living outside of the U.S. is becoming more and more appealing to me by the day. At least then I wouldn't have to listen to all the Romney supporters gloat and cheer for their guy.....at least until the hammer falls on them again. Then maybe they will see their folly. It really makes me want to cry because just a few weeks ago I thought this was going to be Obama's game to win again.

[renie408]

144. I swear to god, I literally got queasy when I checked RCP tonight and

saw Romney leading for the first time.

I cannot believe this is happening. WilliamPitt is right. An entire season of leads just wiped out by one night. And now there is less than a month and this is the time when people are solidifying, not changing. This is surreal. I feel like an idiot because a week ago I was doing the happy dance and figured it was in the bag. I kept telling all those 'concerned' DUers to get over themselves.

[OldDem2012]

155. Before you soiled yourself, did you actually look at who conducted the polls? nt.

[cilla4progress]

151. Sometimes?

[kentuck]

3. I haven't heard much lately about what the President has done to save our economy?

I forgot what he did??

[DonCoquixote]

113. start with saving General Motors

throw in the stimulus,and shake. Also add in jobs like the JOBS act, or the program for veterans, the the GOP killed, in part because a bunch of stay at home protest voters gave the GOP the House in 2010.

In this election, Democrats that do not vote Obama are every bit as crucial to the GOP as actual Republicans.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

134. President Obama saved the economy

so now it's time to give Republicans the keys to the car again so that they can (will) drive it right back into a ditch.

[reformist2]

4. It does appear 4-5% have been swayed by ridiculous pro-Romney cheerleading in the media.

I don't know how we counter that. Only Obama can shut them up, imo.

[hrmjustin]

5. I would agree with you, but the president did not really defend his record.

I hope the people use their brains my friend.

[kentuck]

6. What record would that be...

All I've heard about is Big Bird.

[B2G]

9. Word

[newblewtoo]

49. well everybody's heard

all this needs is a Celtic logo, right Will? Sorry couldn't resist. God am I getting sick of the endless polls. Let's vote already and get this overwith.

[cilla4progress]

89. Gotta agree

So where would we go from here, if true?

[adigal]

132. Well, Vermont is always talking about secession -

Just kidding. Kind of.

Really. How do we survive with 1/2 of the country stupid enough to vote to the tax-dodging, lying sociopath who hates them?? I don't know. I really don't.

[laruemtt]

122. don't ever misunderestimate

the stupidity of the american people. they let the shrub in twice. it's scary as hell.

[virgogal]

142. Couldn't you qualify that to "the stupidity

of SOME American people"?

Good lord !

[warrior1]

7. and an then analysis

of who was poll will say that it over polled republicans. Just saying. See Pew.

[cali]

10. Yep. And I think this tells us that a small but significant amount of the President's support

was weak. People just couldn't find a reason to support rMoney. The debate supplied that reason. I always saw the President's lead as fragile, but I didn't realize how fragile it really was.

And thanks, Will. I'd much rather deal with reality than fantasy.

[B2G]

12. Agreed. And if Biden blows it on Thursday

we're gonna be in a world of hurt.

I'm not sure I can bear to watch...

[regnaD kciN]

18. I doubt it...

VP debates generally have little or no effect. The big test will be the town hall in a week.

[B2G]

25. Yeah well, the conventional wisdom last week was that

Presidential debates have little effect either. And look how that's turned out.

[ewagner]

56. The VP debate is being hyped

beyond anything I've ever seen...

Poor Biden...the expectations being put on him are enormous ....

I don't think I'll watch.

[adigal]

133. Biden can handle it - he is an old pro at this

I think he is licking his chops to get his blows in at that lying whippersnapper Randian, Paul Lyin' Ryan.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

152. That's exactly what I've been saying. There was a part that was sqwishy

they low-informed people...but they did catch wind of some bad stuff about Romney. then they saw him, and thought, hell, he's ok, he's not saying anything I don't agree with. And no one was refuting.

What is totally scary is his shift to moderate now. It is 100% bullshit..but actually brilliant. Because he is going for the uninformed who won't delve into his past statements.

I have to wonder...how much does "flip-floppy-ness" really bother people? Is that enough to make them not vote for him?

[speedoo]

11. You could have added Gallup, but that would have taken away from your point, right? Nt

[WilliamPitt]

13. Gallup was posted 235 times here yeasterday

I posted it myself.

Reality sucks.

[speedoo]

24. Yeah, the reality that you are selling sucks.

I'm not buying it.

[regnaD kciN]

27. No, drama-queen attitudes suck...

I agree with what Nate Silver wrote yesterday: if you're the type to go into panic attacks over the latest poll released, it's probably best for your own sanity to restrict yourself to looking at places like 538 and Intrade, where they depend on taking the dispassionate, big-picture view, for the next few days.

[GoneOffShore]

39. And that's where I go all the time.

Thanks for the sanity.

[HockeyMom]

41. When do we show race tightening in New York and California?

Something really stinks to high hell to me about all these polls. 68 Million people watched the debate. What percentage of the entire population is that? What percentage of DEMOCRATS changed THEIR minds? They would have had to to cause this much of a switch.

Do you trust not just the polls, but the MEDIA? WHO runs the media? It seems to me that it is the MEDIA who are "changing hearts and minds".

I also troll the Freepers, a lot. They are being very quiet, and subdued, about Romney pulling ahead. VERY quiet. WHY do you think that is?

The FIX is on. That is MY take living in a "battleground" state.

[former9thward]

123. 68 million is about 70% of the people that will vote.

Do you really think anyone who will not bother voting watched the debate? And that 68 million does not count people who watched the debate in public settings (airports, bars, etc.) or on the internet.

[laundry_queen]

135. It also doesn't count

people who turned on the TV the next day to hear how 'Romney kicked ass' and heard a few soundbites and made a bandwagon decision based on the media.

[regnaD kciN]

65. Oh, I'm sure the OP will bring up Gallup...

...as soon as the new numbers are released with the LV model in place, since that will show the race "nearly even" (despite the fact that the underlying data won't have changed), and thus can be presented as more evidence that "we're doooooooooomed!!!"

[Sugarcoated]

14. Do these polls reflect the latest jobs numbers?

[seabeyond]

15. i understand you were so diappointed in obama during the debate. you made it clear, loudly. BUT...

for anyone to believe that obama did so damn poorly to result in this, you are fooling yourself. something else is up.

he did not do what you wanted and others. he was not clear and on point. he did reach out to the american people, he was calm and presidential, and he gave facts.

romney lied. he was uncivil.

you are blowing obama's performance to such an exaggerated low, i really have to wonder.

it says a whole lot for people across the country to take romneys performance as a win.

i see some feeding this as much as media. to the point of absurdity.

[B2G]

19. Kentuck is right

What has Obama been doing to defend his record? Nothing. What has he said about his plans for the next 4 years. Precious little.

And we really think people give a shit about Big Bird when they can't put food on the table and the Middle East is in meltdown mode?

But hey, it's the polls. Unreal.

[seabeyond]

33. that is bullshit. then you have not been listening. why? nt

[B2G]

37. I guess I missed the Big Bird Bounce

[CakeGrrl]

112. You must be relying on the MSM to inform you. Mistake.

He says it in every rally at which he speaks. What, you didn't see that on MSNBC?

Look elsewhere - you're on the Internet.

...and so is a lot of the Obama Team's outreach.

[Carolina]

118. Excellent post, B2G

And I agree completely... why isn't Obama talking about his record the way Deval Patrick, Jennifer Granholm and others did at the Democratic Convention. Why doesn't he talk about Mittens like Ted Strickland did at the convention as well...

geez, he is sure not acting as if he is "fired up and ready to go..." And the debate perfromance was inexcusable!

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Agreed...one curious point is this

At what point is WillPitt's increasing negativism simply an "I told you so" by WillPitt, with no other seeming purpose whatsoever.

With this particular post, that seems to be what's going on. It's clearly not merely an information point, in any case.

[WilliamPitt]

21. Oh for Christ's sake...

[alcibiades_mystery]

26. So what's your point

This is reality?

That's your point?

[B2G]

28. I know, right?

And to think just last week all of these polls were magically delicious.

[bigtree]

44. I hope Will took what you said to heart, seabeyond.

. . .him being an influential (we hope) part of that 'media.'

[Big Blue Marble]

108. It is not Will that exaggerated.

It is the media megaphone. This is what they do brilliantly. Remember the lockbox.
It is not reality that shape voting patterns; it is not even the individual perceptions;
it is the simplistic media spun perceptions that the weakest minds consume.

This is what is endangering our democracy. This and the ways the Republicans
so effectively use this tool.

[seabeyond]

117. agreed... yet,

i feel from night one, will participated in the exaggeration. and it is just finally now, after days, that i have said something.

[DonCoquixote]

121. The problem with America

Is that we expect our leaders to be symbolic heads of state as well as practical types. In the UK, you have the Royal family to do the various cultural aspects, and you have a bunch of boring politicans and journalists to handle the boring but important stuff. It of course, does not always work out, but the fact that the "entertainment" and "political" aspects are cleanly,clearly separated allows there to be space for sanity, IMHO.

Yes the Uk has tabloids and reality shows, but there is space for serious newspapers like the Guardian, and of course, the BBC. Here, even the MSNBCS and CURRENTS have to make the ratings, so even their fresher, nutritious offerings come with a heaping dash of loudmouth sauce, with a side of carnival-fried hucksters. The PBS is always a target, and even they are known more for Big Bird and British programs than the documentaries that draw the daggers of the conservatives. Thanks to budget cuts, PBS has taken a more "cautious" stance, which in plain English means they are SCARED. It is not accident that Mitt went to the moderator and threatened to fire him; if Mitt did not add Big Bird to the mix, most people would not have cared.

The debate assessment is a fine example of this. Yes, Obama was a wonk, yes he needed to boil it down into bullet points, yes, his debate trainers need to be sacked, and replaced with the likes of Rachel Maddow or (ugh) even that damned Dig Dawg, Bill Clinton. His attempt to be civil, indeed,his very belief in civility, has been his great weakness. Yes, there is a civil veneer of America, but truth be told, as none other than Big Dawg said: "When people are insecure, they'd rather have somebody who is strong and wrong than someone who's weak and right." As the rest of the world sees, America is insecure, and it loves bullies because of that. Obama wants that civil society, that meritocracy that shows up every so often, but he, and frankly WE, need to realize that is NOT the dominating force in our minds and hearts.

The very fact that we reward Mitt for lying, the fact we consider Obama a failure for NOT lying, NOT yelling, and NOT resorting to tactics like the "Gish Gallop", is, in an of itself, a very damning example of our weakness as a culture. Mitt's antics would have gotten him thrown off most decent High School debate teams, especially for using a technique known as the Gish Gallop, which is so well recognized that even shady, pass-the-hat preachers avoid it, unless they know the audience is a REAL DENSE bunch of SUCKERS.

Then again, as the fellow who got the "haircut" can tell you, Mitt has not been held to account for himself since high school. And therein lies the secret appeal of the GOP; they sell the idea that as long as you have the money, you have a God-given right,indeed, a duty, to be as big of a bully and an asshole as you want.

I have to end on a high note. The reason the GOP is pulling out all the stops is because they know, whether by demographics, or by China getting sick of funding our war machine, or the rising sea tides eating our cities, that the Men and women who have called the shots here in America will simply have that power taken from them! Provided we keep our heads about us, we can take actions in both the long and short term to ensure that, when the powers stumble, we make sure they do NOT get back up. A large part of that will be changing our national culture, where the Mitt Romneys are not praised for behavior that civilized societies would NOT reward.

PS: for those who have not heard the term Gish Gallop: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

[laundry_queen]

136. Strong and wrong will win every time.

It's shocking to me that most of DU doesn't see that. I always point to the leaders on the left here in Canada - they rarely apologize for their gaffes and stick to their principles, and the right 'respects' them and they are gaining in the polls. That's how the NDP (which is quite left wing) became official opposition. (well, that and brilliant marketing) LOL, ETA, not that the left in Canada is wrong, but that voters don't really care about right/wrong as much as they care about strong/weak.

As for his debate preppers - the word is (heard it yesterday, forget where) that they did a great job and had him ready to go out and defend his record, but apparently Obama's 'handlers' had a meeting with him right before and, according to this 'source', had the last word on how Obama should perform and changed the game plan. So Plouffe, Axelrod et al are responsible for this. Of course the 'source' could've been a debate prepper, lol.

[DonCoquixote]

140. Yes,though I must ask

How the heck did Canada elect a Mitt Romney clone like Stephen Harper? One of the things that scares me about this election is that if Mitt won, North America will be LDS run.

[laundry_queen]

148. Oh, that was because of 2 reasons

#1 - the reason Harper was elected in the first place is because we were coming off a zillion (lol) years of Liberal (big L, name of party) rule and there was a scandal. Harper got a minority because of the Liberals being investigated for corruption.

#2 - the reason Harper now has a majority is because when he had a minority he didn't do anything super alarming, and the main reason - the left is split here in Canada. The Liberal party somewhat imploded with 2 disasterous leader picks (Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff) and the NPD, with Jack Layton in charge, quickly gained a large share of the Liberal vote (especially as the Liberals drifted rightward). So the vote was split evenly enough that Harper was able to squeak by with a majority. Something like 61% of Canadians voted for left-leaning parties. The votes were split between the Liberals, the NDP and the Green Party, as well as the regional separatist party (which leans socially left) Bloc Quebecois. It's one of the downfalls of the parliamentary system, that when there is one party on one side of the political spectrum and multiple parties on the other side, the side with one party usually wins. For instance, the Liberals won 4 straight majority governments because the right was split between the Progressive Conservatives (there's an oxymoron for you) and the Reform/Canadian Alliance party, both of which later united to form today's Conservative party. Sooner or later, the left will unite behind 1 party, some malcontents on the FAR right will start a new party (has happened already in Alberta with the Wildrose party) and the pendulum will swing again.

BTW, Harper at least is not LDS - he is our first evangelical PM though. Most of our PMs have been Catholic. I do worry about the whole LDS/Lyin' for the Lord crap. Good luck, rooting for you (and President Obama!)

[regnaD kciN]

16. The big question here...

...is, once again, "when were these state polls taken?" If any time other than the last two days, they probably caught Romney at the height of his debate bounce, and likely would be more favorable by now.

BTW, I notice you left one poll out -- the one from SurveyUSA showing us up by a point in Ohio.

[Larkspur]

17. The swing state poll that I'm most interested in is Ohio's

The ARG poll looks bad for Obama, but it always had this race as neck-n-neck" http://americanresearchgroup.com/
Obama lost 2 pts and Romney agained 2. Romney led in early Sept and lost it by mid-Sept but was only down by 3 pts at the most.

There were other polls that showed Obama up from 7-10 pts before the debate, so it will be interesting to see what they say now.

[Sugarcoated]

22. So what your saying is the ARG Ohio polls

have been very close all along, unlike the other Ohio polls?

[fugop]

35. Yep

On Sept. 10th, immediately after the convention, it looks like ARG had Obama one point ahead of Romney.

So yea, it's not fun to see this one, but in the context of ARG's other Ohio poll, it's not like Obama cratered here.

[Sugarcoated]

36. I would find it very hard to believe

in just one debate Obama would be behind in Ohio.

[kentuck]

23. "An entire Summer and early Fall's worth of gains has been all but wiped out."

But we have all this money....

[woolldog]

29. Do people really take ARG and Siena

polls seriously?

[WilliamPitt]

32. Not if you don't like the results

apparently.

[woolldog]

45. Correction:

I have NEVER taken them seriously. Don't care what the results are. These polls have a history of being way off from all the others.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

103. If You Posted ARG During The 08 Primaries ( They Leaned Clinton) You Got Crucified

Now he's the gold standard for pollsters.

[bigtree]

47. I guess you don't like survey usa?

[My Pet Goat]

30. At same link: O: 45 R: 44 (Ohio) SurveyUSA

as TroyD had to mention in a separate post.

[abumbyanyothername]

53. Rand/American Life Panel

Shows Obama extending his lead nationally.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election#election-forecast

[regnaD kciN]

67. Which is consistent with the hypothesis...

...that Romney had a huge bounce post-debate, but that it has faded away since then. Which means that the value of each poll lies in when it was taken as much as what it reports.

[Sebass1271]

31. I thought they were in

Yesterday. So are we going to have new poll numbers daily?

[Baitball Blogger]

34. Who will take the trouble of deconstructing the polls to determine how

many conservatives were overpolled to get these results?

[bigtree]

51. Prosense

here at DU, that's one of the best deconstructors we've got.

[Sugarcoated]

38. Do you think this is permanent?

The race is definitely tightening, but I think it'll go back to Obama slightly ahead. Why assume it's gonna stay this way?

[Joe the Revelator]

40. This bump, like all others, will be short lived.....when did you become..

....such a reactionary?

[WilliamPitt]

48. Wednesday night.

[bigtree]

73. I think this still has debate residue

and I consider that debate bounce more of a bucking up of Romney's demographic than some erosion of our support, so far. That's why it looks so short-lived. On the substance of the debate, the impression each candidate left voters, Romney has taken a huge hit for his lack of candor and outright lying. Building on that reality (there is almost nothing else that he said in that debate which has made it out to the news cycle) the President is well positioned to further his defining of Romney as a liar and a prevaricator on the very policies he's promoting. I'd rather be in the President's shoes right now. I'm still betting that we'll out-organize him and that his debate 'win' will evaporate like the vacuousness of his policies.

[bigtree]

42. first of all, it's been a statistically close race all along

we got a good convention bounce and it's settling down to somewhere close to even, nationally.

I'm going to take ARG in Ohio with a grain of salt. It likely has some residue from the debate hype and universal grousing from those folks who have the elevation and access to report on such events and influence opinion. We'll look at the sampling and wait for some of the effects of the good news and aggressive posture of the Obama campaign right now to show up later in the week.

Now it's a bit of hyperbole to say that the gains of summer and fall have been wiped out. National; polls have hovered around even, within margins of error. It's the battle ground polls where we've drawn confidence. I don't think that one ARG poll from Ohio and Colorado erases' anything.

Bttw, what's the point on throwing this mismosh of negativity at DUers? This is just another, I told you so post. Duers have NOTHING to do with debate prep or anything else. Do you really think that if we all got down on the floor and wept, the circumstances of this election would change?

Buck up and put your best foot forward, ie., take this space and time and use it to take the fight to Romney; instead of this backbiting obsession with last weeks debate.

[jeff47]

43. Yes, because the bump isn't already fading in new polls.

Time to run around panicking!!!!!!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!!!

The election isn't tomorrow. And if you were correct about the power of debates, there would be no President Reagan. And President Kerry would have happened.

Is the bad debate performance reason for some concern? Only if the Obama camp refused to acknowledge it. And they've said, repeatedly, that they screwed up and are going to have to work hard to fix it.

The way this works out poorly for us is by people creating a false "momentum" story. Like you are. Wait a couple weeks, and the polls will revert.

[WilliamPitt]

52. "Wait a couple weeks, and the polls will revert."

The election is four weeks away.

[jeff47]

150. 4 < 2 (nt)

[ProSense]

46. Good grief. You're hyping RW polls?

Latest Swing State Polls

ARG had Romney ahead in early Sept.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Gravis? Really?

Siena is a first time poll, no trend.

Rasmussen had Romney ahead a few days ago.

Washington Times/Zogby? Really?

[bigtree]

61. I think the op is still trying to justify all of the poutrage about the debate

He's been deflecting the charges from other posters of self-serving defenses of his indefensible promotion of Romney as some 'winner' in that debate with facepalm smileys and ridicule, so don't expect any substantive defense from him of these sour cherrypicked polls against others which demonstrate a more likely ephemeral value of this 'bounce' for Romney.

Good work on the extrapolation of these polls, btw, Prosense.

[alcibiades_mystery]

63. Nobody is in more danger

Than the person who gets between WillPitt and a speculative thesis. That's been well known for years. That it is cashing out in this bizarre way is what's really surprising. He has to have been correct. That's a must. All else falls by the wayside. Scary.

[bigtree]

69. Will Pitt is an excellent writer, poilitical strategist and observer, and a fine and decent man

That tenaciousness you speak of is an asset, not an unforgivable fault. Although I do wish he was less guarded and less defensive, I do think that he takes most of what's said in opposition to his view to heart. At least, that's what I hope, in most cases like this debate/polling dust-up on DU.

[alcibiades_mystery]

70. I agree with all that

Trust me, I've gone back and forth with the dude since 2001 in one form or another. It's why I'm surprised by what he's doing here. It's not just posting information. It has the whiff of ego about it.

[obamanut2012]

82. Huh -- interesting

[obamanut2012]

79. I know, right? Washington Times shows Romney leading

I am SHOCKED by that!

[GeorgeGist]

50. Two weaks ago ...

Nevermine.

[ProSense]

54. Here's something to get excited about:

Nate Silver: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021499616

[bigtree]

64. +1

[IDoMath]

55. And it could swing back the other way in a heartbeat. n/t

Those "gains" weren't really Obama's gains. They were Romney's losses. Romney made a good showing at the debate and energized his base. Now, Obama has to make two good showings to come back.

None of this has increased the number of Romney signs in my town (Now up to 3). The rank and file does not like Romney. They may vote for him but they aren't working for him.

[Romulox]

57. Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

http://www.freep.com/article/20121008/NEWS15/121008081/Michigan-Obama-Romney-poll

[ProSense]

59. Exciting:

The last EPIC/MRA showed Obama by 10 previously, but that was attributed to Mitt's disastrous 47 percent comment:

Poll: Obama Leads Romney By 10 Points In Michigan

DETROIT (WWJ) As President Barack Obama and Republican contender Mitt Romney prepare to battle it out in the debate ring, the most recent poll shows Obama is pulling no punches in his lead over Romney in Michigan.

The newest EPIC/MRA poll shows Obama with a 47 to 37 percent margin over Romney.

The GOP candidate has lost five percentage points in the state since the previous poll, and pollster Bernie Porn thinks he drop can directly be attributed to Romney’s remark about the ”47 percent” of Americans who would rather rely on government handouts than take care of themselves.

“I think in terms of the impact of that, it was very profound, and I think most people may well consider it a revealing comment more than thinking that it was an invasion of his privacy in comments before fundraisers,” Porn said.

- more -

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2012/10/01/obama-leads-romney-by-10-points-in-michigan/

The EPIC/MRA poll prior to that (at the end of August) had Obama up by 3 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

[Romulox]

66. To be clear, the numbers I posted are from EPIC's latest poll. Prosense is confused. nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

68. I take ProSense's point to be that EPIC polling has

consistently showed just a slight Obama lead. Sure, the one after the 47% remark showed 10, but before that it was about where it is now, just 3 points. The fact that EPIC shows the Michigan race as a 3 point spread is consistent with previous EPIC polls.

[Romulox]

71. Right, but that ignores a lot of detail. Michigan was thought to be "out of play" during the time

in between those two polls.

The fact that EPIC shows the Michigan race as a 3 point spread is consistent with previous EPIC polls.

Consistent with EPIC polls taken at a time that Michigan was being characterized as being "in play". Afterwords, Michigan was thought to be "out of play". The most recent polls suggest Michigan back "in play". To argue that this is insignificant is whistling past the graveyard.

[ProSense]

78. Obama is still up

Consistent with EPIC polls taken at a time that Michigan was being characterized as being "in play".

....above that point. In fact, the other Michigan poll, Baydoun/Foster (D), shows Obama up one point from the previous. Before that Romney led by 4 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

[Romulox]

84. LOL. A stunning level of analysis with someone OBVIOUSLY familiar with the facts! nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

83. Maybe

I think the point is actually that most polls had Michigan out of play when EPIC had it in play. That's the consistency. So, without other polls or other indications that Michigan is in play, EPIC alone does little. Maybe it's significant, maybe it's not. EPIC alone can't tell us.

That's one reading, The other reading is that, yeah, sure, of course MIchigan's in play. Michigan's always been in play. There was the convention bump, and the 47% gaffe, but those simply artificially increased the margin. This was always going to be a close, down to the wire election, and people who think otherwise are not very good observers. So, the fact that we're back to where the race was always going to be anyway doesn't really change much. We go out, and phone bank and door knock, and donate and do all the things you're supposed to do in a close election.

I'm reminded of a story in Michael Herr's brilliant Vietnam memoir Dispatches. A bunch of the young 20-something war correspondents were getting drunk with a grizzled old reporter who had covered WWII and Korea. They were all "pissing and moaning" Herr says, about "how horrible it all was out there." I fucking love you guys, says the old timer, I really do. What the fuck did you think it was gonna be?

I'm tired of the charge of "whistling past the graveyard." It's not thoughtful.

[Romulox]

90. No, Michigan wasn't "always going to be in play". A month ago, the story was that PACS pulled their

funding for ads in Michigan

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120906/POLITICS01/209060394

That's one reading, The other reading is that, yeah, sure, of course MIchigan's in play. Michigan's always been in play. There was the convention bump, and the 47% gaffe, but those simply artificially increased the margin. This was always going to be a close, down to the wire election, and people who think otherwise are not very good observers. So, the fact that we're back to where the race was always going to be anyway doesn't really change much. We go out, and phone bank and door knock, and donate and do all the things you're supposed to do in a close election.

This is an interesting generic statement, but not really consistent with what has actually taken place here in Michigan.

I'm tired of the charge of "whistling past the graveyard." It's not thoughtful.

It's every bit as thoughtful (and a whole lot more succint) as your war correspondent anecdote.

[alcibiades_mystery]

93. So the PACS and Romney are putting money back in?

Wow. Must be in play.

[Romulox]

98. Haven't seen a big write up, but the commercials have begun again, yes... nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

102. Fair enough, then it's in play

Let's try to win the election, shall we?

[ProSense]

72. I guess the sarcasm confused you.

The last poll was an anomaly, the previous polls showed Obama up by a few points. The current poll simply reverted back to the previous trend.

[Romulox]

76. Indeed it did, since Michigan being "in play" is a big change from the recent past.

It is a gross mischaracterization to argue that Michigan has simply "reverted back" -- it is/was thought to be a solidly blue state.

[ProSense]

80. No, the

"gross mischaracterization" is your claim.

The President is still up in Michigan: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1500309

[Romulox]

97. My first post to this thread: "Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45%"

Nice how you just flat out make stuff up when the facts aren't on your side!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1500102

[abumbyanyothername]

58. I don't think it's any accident that all these "polls"

come out after the debate showing a rMoney surge.

Some polls are designed to measure public opinion and some are designed to shape it.

[renie408]

81. So, now we think attacking the polls is OK?

[OldDem2012]

156. If the polls are as screwed up as the last Pew poll, yes. Is that a problem? nt.

[meadowlark5]

60. Do you guys read Nate Silver?

He put in perspective all of these polls. He said after analyzing them all, the race looks about the same as pre-debate. Pew was surveying early in their time frame, more on Friday than Sat and Sunday to acct for that good number for Romney. I found this part of his article very prudent:

But it’s one thing to give a poll a lot of weight, and another to become so enthralled with it that you dismiss all other evidence. If you can trust yourself to take the polls in stride, then I would encourage you to do so. If your impression of the race is changing radically every few minutes, however, then you’re best off looking at the forecasts and projections that we and our competitors publish, along with Vegas betting lines and prediction markets.

All of these methods have slightly different ways of accounting for new information, but they do involve people who are risking either money or reputation to get it right, and who have systematic ways to weigh the evidence rather than doing so on an ad hoc basis.

[bigtree]

62. +1

[renie408]

74. I think it is time for me to stick my head in the sand..or throw up.

[Baitball Blogger]

109. Just don't do it at the same time.

[obamanut2012]

77. WASHINGTON TIMES poll?

Seriously?

And, I didn't even know what the heck Siena was and had to look it up. It's a one-off poll.

Where are the polls where Obama is trending up, both nationally and in battleground states?

The only way I "get" this OP is only if what others are saying is true: this is an "I Told You So," so you choose polls to fit your narrative.

Good God. There's being a realist and a pragmatist, but then there's cherry-picking polls.

[renie408]

86. How about the Pew Research Center poll that has Romney up by 4?

Are they full of shit, too? Are we cherry picking that one?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[obamanut2012]

88. I didn't know you and Will Pitt cowrote the OP

Thanks for the info. You might want to PM him and ask him to add your name to the OP, because it really isn't fair of him to take all the credit for it, now is it?

Why didn't the two of you post Pew instead of Washington Times? And also add how the Pew has the Romney post-debate bounce because of when it was sampled?

[WilliamPitt]

96. You missed the "Zogby" part

Of course.

And the Times/Zogby poll is positive for Obama.

You crack me up.

[obamanut2012]

99. No, I didn't

[catbyte]

95. Do yourself a favor and check out Pew demographics

Overwhelmingly White, over 60 southern conservatives. It was like 850 White, 150 Black. & 57 Hispanics which they didn't count. Talk about skewed.

Relax.

[JoePhilly]

85. That does it ... I'm staying home. Doesn't matter any way.

There ... hope that helps.

[obamanut2012]

92. lol

[get the red out]

87. I'm going back to hating this country

Disgusting people.

[Shivering Jemmy]

91. DU people are SO going to freak out when Gallup comes out

They switch to their likely voter model today.


Some of you will really need to get a grip in advance

[obamanut2012]

101. Do tell why DU will freak out and need to get a grip

"Jemmy"?

[Shivering Jemmy]

105. Sure

Gallup switches to likely voter model today. With post debate sample still in there and fact that likely voter models (esp Gallup) skew R, things could get ugly. That will make some people who do not read the poll details panic.

On the plus side if we come out of the change with a tie or better we are golden.

[cali]

104. and you, honeypie, need to not be telling people what to do.

[Shivering Jemmy]

107. *shrugs*

Sure thing, sugar shack.

[cali]

128. shrug away, pumpkin

hey, do you like pizza? I foresee it in your future and in your face.

[WI_DEM]

94. Luckily this can be turned around starting Thursday night and with

Obama having his head in the game next week. Remember how Reagan lost debate #1 to Mondale and the next debate he told one quip that defused questions of his age.

[marions ghost]

119. Thanks

for the positives.

I appreciate the OP's expressing his opinions--and the replies are informative also. So who said this would be easy. It never was going to be.

Fasten seat belts--bumpy landing but we WILL land it.

Go Biden!

[TwilightGardener]

100. Oh well. People are fickle. Four weeks is a long time, though.

[coalition_unwilling]

106. This post really depresses me and I'm not sure exactly why. Maybe it's

that I was looking forward to a 1964-style landslide for Obama and I may be disappointed or even devastated at what actually transpires.

But I think it's also that, even if we grant that your post-debate numbers are legit, your OP offers no suggestions for how to reverse matters. And it's very late in the game now.

What do you suggest we DO at this point? Or are you implying that the race is already over and Obama should start packing his bags? I don't get it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

114. A 1964 Landslide Was Never In The Cards. What Led You To Believe Obama Could Get 62% Of The Vote?

Bill Clinton ran during the longest economic expansion in the history of the republic and won a meager 49.3% of the popular vote.

The fundamentals of this race still favor Obama. The economy is improving slowly but surely. He is winning the non-white vote by sixty percent. That means he can win with forty percent or so of the white vote which is approximately the same percentage of the white vote Mike Dukakis and John Kerry won and lost the election because the share of the non white vote was not large enough. And he has a ton of money to spend on last minute commercials and get out the vote.

Now is not the time to panic.

[coalition_unwilling]

158. Well, there for a time I believed Romney was on track to alienate every demographic other

that white males over the age of 65. So it was that belief that caused me to hope for 1964-redux, even though I knew I was being wildly optimistic in so hoping.

Thanks for your statistical analysis. Helps to keep all of us anchored in reality

Definitely not panicking but this OP brought me down a lot. (Either the pre-debate numbers were wrong, the post-debate numbers are wrong or Americans as an electorate are so flaky that they deserve a shithead like Romney because they would let one debate cause them to change their votes.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

159. If The Republicans Keep Alienating People Of Color

If Republicans keep alienating people of color as their share of the electorate grows there will come a point in presidential elections that Republicans will have to count on all white Americans voting as if they lived in Mississippi. We're not there that but we're getting there. African Americans and Latinos already comprise more than thirty percent of the population. Republicans can't continue to lose eighty percent of them and win elections.

Back to this race it's not like 1996 where Bill Clinton went into his debate with a huge lead. The president went into his debate with a four point national lead. That's a significant lead but not overwhelming.

The fundamentals of this race still favor the president. However, with his great performance Romney breathed life into his dying campaign.

I believe Biden will do well in his debate, the president will do better, and the fundamentals of the race will assert themselves, and the president will win a narrow victory.

[B Calm]

110. They have to make it look close

if the republicans are going to steal it.

[K Gardner]

111. Get a grip, Will. n/t

[Chorophyll]

127. +1.

For fuck's sake. What are we supposed to say? "OMG you were so right about the debate?" Because that's what this post looks like to me.

[OldDem2012]

154. +2. nt.

[Carolina]

115. This is exactly why

Obama needed to fight, refute, and take command last week.

He blew it big time. How can he campaign and speechify about how he'll fight for the middle class when, given the chance of a lifetime before 67 million people, he passively allowed himself to be bullied by a pathological liar!

Sheeple liked the commanding presence and the fighting spirit that Mittens displayed last week. PERIOD

Day-after-debate debunking by pundits, reporters and Obama himself on the stump mattered little. If this was a strategy, it stunk, and continues to stink, big time!

God, how I wish for an FDR, HST, JFK or LBJ

[marions ghost]

120. We don't need another Hero

we've got a solid candidate with a good heart, much wisdom, and a damn good record, given the challenges he faced.

Commanding presence, fighting spirit...if you like rabid dogs and playground bullies...and a grimace like The Joker.

No Obama wasn't great in the debate. But he had to be reminded of what he's dealing with--serious deep dark pathology. He'll take a different approach next time--you'll see. And I'm sure lots will be watching.

[Carolina]

126. We do need a HERO!

who'll fight for:
- Social Security (not say he agrees with Rmoney)
- Medicare... not put everything on the table when it comes to deficit reduction
- a public option

who won't populate his team with the likes of Summers, Geithner, Rahm, Duncan...

[marions ghost]

130. Have you noticed it's a different world now?

A world where left-wing "heroes" get destroyed by the real PTB? -- The forces behind the scenes...

BO hasn't done everything right, but give him 4 more years before you write him off as a failure.

This country is NOT in the same place as it was in the 60's or earlier. I think the things you & I care about can be protected with a second Obama presidency--especially if WE hold him to it. Expecting Obama Man to save us from the Juggernaut isn't realistic. It's going to be all hands on deck.

[Carolina]

137. have you noticed he put the crooks

like Summers and Geithner on his team at the outset? Some change!

Hell, I know it's not the same world as the 60s, but Obama never fights... he talks a good game and then folds before the competition begins. I have felt this way for the entire 1st term and the debate performance just confirmed it further. He couldn't/didn't even stick up for himself and his record, so how the hell can he then go out on the stump the very next day and say he'll fight for us. Words, words, empty, campaign mode words.

Yes, he'll get my vote but I have been sorely disappointed and don't expect much from a second term.

[marions ghost]

146. You'll see changes in a second term

especially with a better congress...

I don't think Obama had any idea of the way his performance in the debate appeared at the time. I'm sure he knew he was being steamrolled with lies, and he did what he thought was best to deflect them, and probably thought he did a passable job. But I bet when he saw the replay he got it. And then he tried to do better on the stump the next day. He's not an actor. But he is a fighter, in his own cool way. And he IS paying attention. You and I have to hold his feet to the fire in a second term.

Don't worry Biden's gonna whip up on Lyin Ryan this week...

[Carolina]

116. self delete because of duplication

[cliffordu]

124. And leave it to you to gleefully, eagerly,

and be the FIRST to let us all know.

Thanks!!!

[WilliamPitt]

125. Derp

Try again.

And thanks for kicking my thread.

[cliffordu]

129. Your constant, relentless, breathless reposting of every negative item written

about this President should be kicked to illustrate what the Democratic base are truly up against.

Thank you for your help in this simple endeavor.

Your genius in finding and posting this shit is truly a gift.

Carry on.

[calimary]

131. I hope ALL Democrats understand - America likes what it perceives as fighters.

They like that. They like bullies (at least until somebody bullies their kid). They like the strongman. I guess maybe they go for the surrogate thing - if they themselves are weaklings, they gravitate toward the perceived strong person because it allows them some reflected glory.

Never mind that the strongman is rude, bullying, as compassionate as the nearest coyote, and a flat-out LIAR.

I've long said that if that's how the people vote, then they deserve what they get. The only problem with that is - I DON'T! We here on DU DON'T! And ALL OF AMERICA doesn't!!!

[marions ghost]

143. I don't buy that entirely

...that America as a whole likes strongmen.

What is going on here IMO is that people perceive that to deal with the right wing bullies, you must fight fire with fire. Or get run over.
They see it as a necessity. I don't think they like it.

People who are tense and on edge about Obama's chances to win are mainly worried about what happens when you are ruled and exploited by bullies (been there, done that). Makes the stakes very high for us.

It's not that Obama is so bad at combat, it's that we are so effing scared of the alternative. That's what is REALLY wrong.

[AlinPA]

145. I predict that Ryan will behave the same as Romney and the media will portray him as that fighter,

earnest, spirited, sincere........ Content and issues do not matter now.

[deaniac21]

138. A-well-a everybody's heard about the bird

B-b-b-bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, the bird is the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, well the bird is the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, well the bird is the word
A-well-a bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, well the bird is the word
A-well-a bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a don't you know about the bird?
Well, everybody knows that the bird is the word!
A-well-a bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a...

A-well-a everybody's heard about the bird
Bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a don't you know about the bird?
Well, everybody's talking about the bird!
A-well-a bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A-well-a bird...

Surfin' bird
Bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb... [retching noises]... aaah!

Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-
Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow

Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Oom-oom-oom-oom-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-oom-oom-oom
Oom-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-a-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, ooma-mow-mow
Papa-oom-oom-oom-oom-ooma-mow-mow
Oom-oom-oom-oom-ooma-mow-mow
Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
Papa-ooma-mow-mow, ooma-mow-mow
Well don't you know about the bird?
Well, everybody knows that the bird is the word!
A-well-a bird, bird, b-bird's the word

Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow

[WI_DEM]

141. New CNN Ohio poll Obama up by 4 with Likely voters, 10 among registered voters

[DemocratSinceBirth]

147. Freak Out

[acdrug1135]

149. How would either candidate do if they were to actually have a real debate?

Before the last debate, both candidates met with officials to discuss the terms of the debate. Both candidate knew the general questions and it was agreed that third party candidates were not permitted to participate in the debate and the "tough questions" would not be asked. By the way guess who the number one sponsor was... none other than Anheuser Busch. I can't wait until the debate on foreign policy, shouldn't the candidates be forced to answer the questions about why 50% of the budget goes to military when the economy and the American people are struggling, or how much more are they trying to spend. Romney has called for over a 5 trillion dollar budget increase. So Romney wants to increase military and decrease social spending and people are worried about a socialist president when they should be worried about having a government under corporate control. Concluding question of the debate, "Why are you two candidates running the most expensive campaign on record while knowing the entire country will be facing budget cuts at the beginning of the year? Am I the only one that thinks these questions and trust me plenty more should be answered?

[OldDem2012]

153. Seriously??....

American Research Group (Who?),
Siena (Who?),
DailyKos/Public Policy Polling (Who?),
Rasmussen (We all know who that is, don't we?),
and the Washington Times/Zogby (Really??? LOL!!)

...and then the obligatory, and all to familiar whining, "An entire Summer and early Fall's worth of gains have been all but wiped out".

Broken record...click....click...click...click...

[gulliver]

157. Well you did your part.

At one time there was a guy who would tell fellow Dems to "gut check."