General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRE Pew Poll: Election 2004, 8:00 PM Exit Polls Revealed Kerry Had 304 Electoral Votes. Bush, 174
and 55 too close to call.
--Stranger things have happened in better polls than the one sampled by Pew.
"...the exit poll created for the 2004 election was designed to be the most reliable voter survey in history. The six news organizations -- running the ideological gamut from CBS to Fox News -- retained Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International,(22) whose principal, Warren Mitofsky, pioneered the exit poll for CBS in 1967(23) and is widely credited with assuring the credibility of Mexico's elections in 1994.(24) For its nationwide poll, Edison/Mitofsky selected a random subsample of 12,219 voters(25) -- approximately six times larger than those normally used in national polls(26) -- driving the margin of error down to approximately plus or minus one percent.(27)
On the evening of the vote, reporters at each of the major networks were briefed by pollsters at 7:54 p.m. Kerry, they were informed, had an insurmountable lead and would win by a rout: at least 309 electoral votes to Bush's 174, with fifty-five too close to call.(28) In London, Prime Minister Tony Blair went to bed contemplating his relationship with President-elect Kerry.(29)"
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0601-34.htm
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,509 posts)elleng
(131,294 posts)I just thought I might calm the waters a bit.
villager
(26,001 posts)...if it gets stolen again.
elleng
(131,294 posts)LongTomH
(8,636 posts)That's why I may not go to bed until the morning of Nov 7!
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)The final result was virtually a mirror image of the polling.
At 6:30-7 or thereabouts that election night democrats were jubilant and not in the know republicans despondent. Then presto chango, it magically turned completely around. More than fishy but Kerry, just like Gore, couldn't concede soon enough. It's the election version of battered wife syndrome, our guys fell all over themselves to quit.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)The Christians all came out to vote against teh gay! That's why! That's WHY!! THAT'S WHY!!!
madokie
(51,076 posts)Then let me say that I think that there was a fair amount of blackmail going on with the bush/cheney cabal that might have had something to do with Kerry conceding so quickly
TDale313
(7,820 posts)And no, it wasn't the polls that were wrong that night.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)krawhitham
(4,651 posts)It's alright
Nate Silver calls Pew a "strong polling firm"
I think I go with that
The underlining factor is
The Pew poll was conducted from Thursday through Sunday, although more of the interviews were conducted in the earlier part of that period
Just because you do not link a result does not mean the polling firm is bad, rMoney got a bounce from the debate, but did not last long (O picked up +2 in both Gallup & Rasmussen today) The reason that it did not last long is because in the days after the debate all media outlets besides FOX have called rMoney on the fact he did nothing but lie in the debate
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)I'm hoping that we'll one day have a democracy at least as robust as Venezuela's
AndyTiedye
(23,500 posts)We may have to contend with this:
in 27 states with 270 electoral votes. Damn right I'm worried about it being stolen again!
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)Sickening. What a great "fighter".
PCIntern
(25,628 posts)quinnox
(20,600 posts)voted for a bozo of the uber-magnitude likes of Bush. That was an epic fail on the part of the United States citizenry. Kerry should have won in a landslide if more people hadn't been so dumb.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)which does not negate my point.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)He was perhaps too trusting.
there's this from Bob Woodward:
"Kerry had decided not to concede. There were 250,000 outstanding ballots in Ohio.
So Kerry decides to fight. In fact, he considers going to Ohio to camp out with his voters until there is a recount. This is the last thing the White House needs, especially after Florida 2000.
So what happened?
James Carville gets on the phone with his wife, Mary Matalin, who is at the White House with Bush.
"Carville told her he had some inside news. The Kerry campaign was going to challenge the provisional ballots in Ohio -- perhaps up to 250,000 of them. 'I don't agree with it, Carville said. I'm just telling you that's what they're talking about.'
"Matalin went to Cheney to report...You better tell the President, Cheney told her." ...
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Carville-is-a-Spy-for-Bush-by-M-J-Rosenberg-080828-906.html
lindysalsagal
(20,785 posts)Kerry lacked that integrity. Shrub took full advantage of that fact.
wisteria
(19,581 posts)He was finally told the numbers weren't there for him to win, and proving fraud and disenfranchisment would be a long drawn out process that would not be in the best interest of the American people. I was distraught and wanted him to continue to fight for a long time, but I know understand that Senator Kerry conceded as he did because it was in the best interest of the American people.
karynnj
(59,508 posts)that he took back. The same team that told Gore to take back his concession, told Kerry the numbers were not there to make a case. He was about 100,000 votes down in Ohio and there were not that many provisional ballots that were not counted yet. It was mathematically impossible.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)the army of us who left all behind to help him win (even though so many of us thought he was an absolute shitty choice), he conceded.
Couldn't bother to wait till the votes were at least counted, you know, to at least give the appearance of appreciating all that was done...
Nah, fuck that.
Whatever.
Julie
karynnj
(59,508 posts)That is usually weeks later as they tally all the provisional, overseas etc. The fact is the Democratic experts realized that there were not enough votes in question to challenge Ohio. It would have destroyed our chances in 2006 and likely 2008 if as a party we challenged with n0o basis. Not to mention, I don't think the party would have backed Kerry in a challenge.
Not to mention - I assume that if you thought he was an "absolutely shitty choice" you were likely not that good an advocate - no matter how much you worked.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)Kerry would not have been able to turn it around at that point.
It was a stolen election, but very hard to prove. Kerry did the honorable thing and went back to his job. I admire him for it.
But I don't think we should tolerate a stolen election again--too many are tuned into election fraud now. We should not let it stand.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)My hatred for Bush was fuel enough. I didn't advocate all that much, I did other stuff like raise a boatload of money, run the office, host Elizabeth Edwards, Kerry's sister, Kerry's shipmate and a protest when Bush came to town. Worked more than full time hours throughout the election.
The disgust from the morning after election day is still lingering. I was never a die-hard Kerry fan, like you and BLM. Good to see you still carrying the torch though. Whenever I mention Kerry at least one of you shows up.
But nothing you say will ever change what happened and the lessons taken from it.
I can only hope the loss still stings for him as it does all of us fools who sacrificed so much for him.
Julie
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)I recall bad boy/goofball Edwards was willing to go the distance.
Doing "what's best for the nation" is a tired excuse at this point. I better not ever hear shit like that again where our votes are concerned. people were behind it.
Meh.
JI7
(89,283 posts)he didn't follow what Kerry's campaign wanted him to do during the campaign. he went against Kerry then. so why didn't he do what he wanted when it came to this?
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)Maybe he got horny and wandered off.
He claimed he wanted to even after Kerry conceded. Maybe he lied. I don't know that a vice-presidential candidate really coould do much , although I'm pretty sure Cheney would have swung his tired, nasty balls around.
Get like Pubbies, Dems. Really. You're even better at computers, generally speaking. Wink, wink...nudge...know what I mean?
JI7
(89,283 posts)wouldn'tit be for a good cause. he went against Kerry when it came to using certain campaign messages . if he can go against him for something like that why not something more important like voter fraud ?
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)getting his dingus polished was most important of all.
JI7
(89,283 posts)other than to show his character issues and what a lying sleaze he is.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)It must have occurred to him that cheating on an ill and dying wife would destroy it.
Bon soir!
JI7
(89,283 posts)i don't think he was really into it . he might have felt some resentment towards her for it. when it was found out she had cancer again he was ready to drop out but she was the one who wanted to stay in.
i think she should have been the one to run for political office with/without him from the start.
Dustlawyer
(10,499 posts)they used a "king computer" to rig the election. He testified in front of Congress to that effect. He is an old school Repug who feels his party has left him and a computer expert that works to keep our credit cards safe. It will blow your mind!
LisaL
(44,980 posts)And those are normally much more accurate. So there still seems to be no rational explanation for that one.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)We also had the "laugh-till-you-vomit" excuse that Republicans lied to pollsters.
Pubbies are all-too-often enormous a-holes but they had for decades prior answered or refused to be polled.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)they got rid of it beCAUSE it was so acurate
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)summerschild
(725 posts)Posted by Newsjock:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014255567
Networks, AP cancel exit polls in 19 states
Source: Washington Post
Breaking from two decades of tradition, this years election exit poll is set to include surveys of voters in 31 states, not all 50 as it has for the past five presidential elections, according to multiple people involved in the planning.
The National Election Pool a joint venture of the major television networks and The Associated Press has not announced the states that wont be included, but the decision is sure to cause some pain to election watchers across the country.
Voters in the excluded states will still be interviewed as part of a national exit poll, but state-level estimates of the partisan, age or racial makeups of electorates wont be available as they have been since 1992. The lack of data may hamper election night analyses in some states, and it will almost certainly limit post-election research for years to come.
Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/04/networks-ap-cancel-exit-polls-in-19-states/
elleng
(131,294 posts)Kurovski
(34,655 posts)"what is was like to declare the wrong winners? Butcher said, It humiliating. It was awful. It was never our intent.
At least that person (Ms. Butcher?) wants a paper recount with a wider sampling, but it sounds like all machines are crap. But funny how it works in the Repub favor so often. (over 98%? was it)