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Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:47 PM

DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:40 AM - Edit history (1)

Gravis Marketing wants you to believe that this is Doug Kaplan



http://gravismarketing.com/?gclid=COz0t-aY77ICFUjhQgodlDcAew

Meet Doug Kaplan



http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html

My interest was peaked when gravismarketing entered a thread with this very lame response on a thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021425136#post3

Didn't seem like a very professional response.

So I started a lengthy background check using public and private sources to track the principles behind Gravis Marketing, all of their public appearances and have come to the conclusion that Gravis Marketing is a complete fraud. Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics have all been punked.

Want to have an impact on the election or do you want to try and make some money out of it then start up a website and start issuing press releases with poll numbers. Find industry averages and publish it on a PR piece. In a poll hungry environment you will be quoted and if you do it regularly you will be put into the regular rotation. And you never have to make a single phone call.

Gravis Marketing promises to be the cheapest in the business. Well there is one way to undercut the others, save on direct expenses like a telemarketing center.

It triggered Daily Kos to ask the question who are these guys and nothing came substantial came up.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/11/1130526/-Weird-Obama-Romney-Poll-I-Need-your-Input

This is like the Sherlock's case of the dog that didn't bark. Check out the three 'officers' of the company and nothing comes up. No academic, professional or occupational hits.

They are

Doug Kaplan
Chad Miller
Bobby Hymel.

They have between 2 to 4 employees.

As a Managing Partner in one of US largest consulting companies between 1994 and 2000 I was thousands of business resumes. This is one of the thinest I have ever seen.

http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html

So he promotes himself as a political expert and national pollster.

His public spots? One is with some small failed local Limbaugh wannabe in Florida by the name of Ed Dean. The other is on the Voice of Russia, the Russian Government's English language channel and a political show called: Carmen Russell-Sluchansky's Campaign Connection.

He is quoted there as a national US Pollster and Political analyst.

You can listen to this twerp here:

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012/01/20/64250633.html

You can start to listen to him at the 5 minute mark. His comments have all of the sophistication of a poli sci major having a beer induced bull session with a bunch of his friends trying to sound like they are on the inside. Pay special attention to his rambling inarticulate explanation of why South Carolina is important.

He sounds completely uninformed for a pollster. He seems unaware the South Carolina had special importance before because of the heavy front loading of the Republican schedule with winner take all primaries that made it very difficult to be viable after SC if you didn't score in Iowa or NH. He seems unaware of the substantial rules changes that had a dramatic impact on the Republican Primary schedule and dynamics.

I could match his numbers with even better numbers and, like him, not make a single phone call.

Next there is the structure of their business model. Go to any other polling company and the political polls are just a small part of a larger business, usually in doing polling for marketing of consumer products. Face it the general elections only show up every 4 years so you can't make a lot of money there. In fact most polling companies publish polls as a loss leader so that they can attract commercial customers.

None of this exists at Gravis.

But they do have testimonials, all politically related.

There is "Cindy L" in Oregon and "Chris Young" in Rhode Island, both very satisfied and anonymous.

Mike Hardin is very happy with "Doug and the rest of the folks" at Gravis (pretty impressive for a 2-4 employee company).

Mike is also a political consultant (probably a roommate from college) but if you google Mike Hardin political consultant all you get is the Gravis referral page, and this letter to the editor in Sacramento:



http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html

The Democratic legislative leadership makes me sick. How dare they place themselves above the thousands of state employees who suffered through furloughs for almost two years and face them again. Speaker John A. Perez derides the California Citizens Compensation Commission. Of course, this is a blip in terms of the budget mess. But why not suffer together through this recession? The political scientists quoted throughout the article are no better. What are they thinking?



Now there is some very sophisticated political analysis.

Leaving us with a single actual political candidate who endorses Gravis Marketing.

And he is a 'Democrat', Chris Benjamin.

Except it turns out that Benjamin is also a fraud:



http://thesource.typepad.com/thesource/2010/06/questions-being-raised-about-chris-benjamin-financial-mismanagement.html

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html#storylink=cpy

After it was revealed that Chris Benjamin, a municipal judge and part time political consultant, is having serious personal financial problems, questions are being raised about his ability to manage public funds. Benjamin is most infamous for switching parties to run for the State Senate as a Democrat in 2008.



Either Benjamin was one of these guys that takes money to run as a Democrat so that the Republican can win easily or he ran as a Democrat because he thought he might make money it doesn't really matter.

And that is Gravis Marketing's great success and only identified public client.

So Nate, Huffington Post, Real Clear Politics have all been punked.

And the right wing blogs are running around with all of these wonderful numbers, and some at DU get their chain pulled.

Doug probably hasn't made any money off of it yet but next time around the Republicans will be happy to throw some bucks his way to get some good PR numbers.

Until then Gravis remains 'non partisan' lol.

Now you know Gravis is a fraud.

I know Gravis is a fraud.

The media can pick up this work and get a story out of it.

Tabbi reads DU and he may have got interest in the KB Toys from one of my articles so this would be a fun story for him, how many other pollsters are punking the media.

I have done most of the work already so some journalist can take all of the credit, just give a mention to DU.

Now Doug Kaplan is going to scream like a stuck pig.

Well all a good investigating reporter has to do is ask to see his W-2s for all the people making the calls and all of the phone bills for all of the calls. Check back on every poll he made and ask to see the telephone bills for all of the calls, I know my bill lists every call I made. Or do you think that they all used the same Vonage line, lol.

Gravis Marketing is a fraud.

Doug Kaplan is a fraud.

And until all of their records have been published and checked that's how they should be noted.

Just another notch for DU fettering out right wing bull shit.

(if someone could take the time to send this to real clear politics, nate silver and post it at Daily Kos, I would appreciate it. I have to move today. On to Tucson.)

199 replies, 42062 views

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Arrow 199 replies Author Time Post
Reply DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I (Original post)
grantcart Oct 2012 OP
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #1
BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #2
malaise Oct 2012 #3
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #7
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #44
malaise Oct 2012 #45
grantcart Oct 2012 #50
Indpndnt Oct 2012 #108
grantcart Oct 2012 #140
Cha Oct 2012 #78
Indpndnt Oct 2012 #107
tavalon Oct 2012 #133
freshwest Oct 2012 #179
jsr Oct 2012 #4
jsmirman Oct 2012 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6
Cha Oct 2012 #82
frazee Oct 2012 #8
renate Oct 2012 #15
frazee Oct 2012 #40
janx Oct 2012 #9
CurtEastPoint Oct 2012 #10
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #20
speedoo Oct 2012 #11
rufus dog Oct 2012 #12
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #13
lunatica Oct 2012 #14
renate Oct 2012 #16
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #17
beac Oct 2012 #26
Aerows Oct 2012 #67
grantcart Oct 2012 #71
MADem Oct 2012 #183
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #18
beac Oct 2012 #19
Cha Oct 2012 #83
oldsmoboi Oct 2012 #197
bigtree Oct 2012 #21
longship Oct 2012 #22
titaniumsalute Oct 2012 #23
grasswire Oct 2012 #24
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #57
Grateful for Hope Oct 2012 #25
porphyrian Oct 2012 #27
lamp_shade Oct 2012 #28
flamingdem Oct 2012 #29
WillyT Oct 2012 #30
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #31
Aerows Oct 2012 #68
Cha Oct 2012 #85
Ikonoklast Oct 2012 #32
ProSense Oct 2012 #33
ProSense Oct 2012 #39
Cha Oct 2012 #88
Cha Oct 2012 #87
AnnieK401 Oct 2012 #34
Control-Z Oct 2012 #35
PotatoChip Oct 2012 #36
berni_mccoy Oct 2012 #37
Aerows Oct 2012 #38
Generic Other Oct 2012 #41
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #42
superpatriotman Oct 2012 #43
gademocrat7 Oct 2012 #46
gademocrat7 Oct 2012 #49
starroute Oct 2012 #47
PotatoChip Oct 2012 #77
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #86
starroute Oct 2012 #110
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #48
berni_mccoy Oct 2012 #51
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #127
JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #52
trumad Oct 2012 #53
Cha Oct 2012 #89
SoapBox Oct 2012 #54
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #55
pkdu Oct 2012 #56
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pkdu Oct 2012 #64
Cha Oct 2012 #91
mrs_p Oct 2012 #100
IDemo Oct 2012 #59
Aerows Oct 2012 #74
dmr Oct 2012 #128
sabrina 1 Oct 2012 #60
grantcart Oct 2012 #65
patrice Oct 2012 #61
budkin Oct 2012 #62
hue Oct 2012 #63
blogslut Oct 2012 #66
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #69
madrchsod Oct 2012 #70
eridani Oct 2012 #72
great white snark Oct 2012 #73
Whovian Oct 2012 #75
Cha Oct 2012 #76
OneGrassRoot Oct 2012 #79
greatauntoftriplets Oct 2012 #80
Progressive dog Oct 2012 #81
grasswire Oct 2012 #84
classof56 Oct 2012 #90
starroute Oct 2012 #92
starroute Oct 2012 #94
janx Oct 2012 #96
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #98
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #101
starroute Oct 2012 #99
starroute Oct 2012 #95
starroute Oct 2012 #109
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #118
starroute Oct 2012 #114
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #115
starroute Oct 2012 #117
starroute Oct 2012 #121
janx Oct 2012 #93
dchill Oct 2012 #97
AikidoSoul Oct 2012 #102
Panasonic Oct 2012 #103
jsmirman Oct 2012 #104
hedgehog Oct 2012 #105
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #106
woo me with science Oct 2012 #111
rury Oct 2012 #112
Whovian Oct 2012 #113
Plucketeer Oct 2012 #116
Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #119
Kurovski Oct 2012 #120
BrainMann1 Oct 2012 #122
Laelth Oct 2012 #123
fiorello Oct 2012 #124
frazee Oct 2012 #135
frazee Oct 2012 #137
Scuba Oct 2012 #125
reflection Oct 2012 #126
outsideworld Oct 2012 #129
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #130
Trajan Oct 2012 #131
formercia Oct 2012 #132
Ruby the Liberal Oct 2012 #134
cyberswede Oct 2012 #175
Ruby the Liberal Oct 2012 #176
reflection Oct 2012 #136
fiorello Oct 2012 #143
Moondog Oct 2012 #138
Samantha Oct 2012 #139
Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #142
Samantha Oct 2012 #146
Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #147
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #160
thevoiceofreason Oct 2012 #141
NBachers Oct 2012 #144
Bozita Oct 2012 #145
Science Geek Oct 2012 #148
Ken Burch Oct 2012 #149
MADem Oct 2012 #184
highplainsdem Oct 2012 #150
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #151
anneboleyn Oct 2012 #152
anneboleyn Oct 2012 #153
AnnieK401 Oct 2012 #154
MessiahRp Oct 2012 #155
AnnieK401 Oct 2012 #167
Raine1967 Oct 2012 #181
MessiahRp Oct 2012 #186
Raine1967 Oct 2012 #187
Jennicut Oct 2012 #156
Moses2SandyKoufax Oct 2012 #157
A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #158
Vestigial_Sister Oct 2012 #159
underpants Oct 2012 #161
myrna minx Oct 2012 #162
WinkyDink Oct 2012 #163
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #164
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #166
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #171
grantcart Oct 2012 #174
Maeve Oct 2012 #177
MADem Oct 2012 #185
Coyotl Oct 2012 #165
TxVietVet Oct 2012 #168
chemp Oct 2012 #169
Sheepshank Oct 2012 #170
Scurrilous Oct 2012 #172
Historic NY Oct 2012 #173
Ilsa Oct 2012 #178
Spazito Oct 2012 #180
MADem Oct 2012 #182
dawolf Oct 2012 #188
Indpndnt Oct 2012 #189
Raster Oct 2012 #190
grantcart Oct 2012 #191
Raster Oct 2012 #192
grantcart Oct 2012 #193
Raster Oct 2012 #195
grantcart Oct 2012 #198
Raster Oct 2012 #199
Maeve Oct 2012 #194
Lucy Fer Oct 2012 #196

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:48 PM

1. You did your homework my friend. Good for you and great post.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:51 PM

2. Thank you

because more and more sleeper cells have been activated here on DU and it will only get worse unless the crap is debunked.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:51 PM

3. Get thee to the greatest page

Excellent post!

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Response to malaise (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:56 PM

7. Do I Get A Shout Out For Smoking Him Out?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:31 PM

44. Indeed!

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:33 PM

45. LOL

Yes!

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:40 PM

50. It was your "clown" label and his idiotic response that got my interest.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #50)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:13 PM

108. And you really went to town with your research.

Most impressive! Fantastic work.

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Response to Indpndnt (Reply #108)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 08:43 PM

140. it was just going to be a little funny thread in Meta

When I listened to the Russian radio show I knew he was a fake.

Didn't have a clue of why SC had such an impact.

Then when I saw that his only possible client was the phony Dem in Missouri I kmew I struck gold.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:58 PM

78. Yes, you do sweetie!

I totally missed that thread. I saw the one about "60% Blacks supporting mittLies
' and dismissed gravis as blatantly bogus.

"Clown" was too kind.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:12 PM

107. You sure do! And I see the clown's account is still active here.

Does that mean we can look forward to poking it with sticks when it returns? I love the little farting noises they make when we do. I guess that's what passes for communicating in clown world for the repubs these days.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:16 PM

133. Shout out!

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Response to malaise (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:05 PM

179. Indeed. Impressive work.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:52 PM

4. Great work.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:52 PM

5. I can forward this to some people

Great work

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:55 PM

6. The First Photo Is Stock Art.

LOL

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:06 PM

82. An analogy comes to mind

From George Clooney to Jon Lovitz. And, I mean in character, too.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:56 PM

8. Thanks. And welcome to Arizona.

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Response to frazee (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:00 PM

15. welcome to DU!

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Response to renate (Reply #15)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:28 PM

40. Thank you.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:56 PM

9. Great job, grantcart!

Excellent.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:57 PM

10. I did a Google search on 'Mr. Kaplan' (first photo) and it appears to be a stock image.

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Response to CurtEastPoint (Reply #10)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:05 PM

20. Using Stock Art On A Web Page Is Pretty Amateurish

.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:58 PM

11. Well done, grantcart.

Great to see rethugs exposed.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:59 PM

12. too damn funny

Edit out comment and link, same posted above.

Still too damn funny.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:59 PM

13. Investigative journalism.

Great work, grantcart!


Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec
(because I can only hit the button once)

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:59 PM

14. Fabulous sleuthing!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:01 PM

16. well done!



And how extra impressive that you did all this right before a big move. Hope it all goes well!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:04 PM

17. One Small Point. He's Allegedly A Robocaller So He Wouldn't Need Callers

.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #17)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:10 PM

26. He claims to have a call center for hire too:

http://gravismarketing.com/call-center-services.html

With a "full team" and "equipment and staffing", allowing them to make "hundreds (even thousands) of calls per day, per employee", no less.

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Response to beac (Reply #26)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:24 PM

67. They employ a special

psychic technology that allows them to reach out of voters without speaking to them or otherwise contacting them in what is now an outdated mode of communication known as "words"

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #17)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:37 PM

71. still need a call center to listen to the reponses, tabulate, etc

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Response to grantcart (Reply #71)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:51 AM

183. Maybe he hires prisoners--twelve cents an hour! nt

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:05 PM

18. EPIC reasearching

Thanks for posting this. I've always looked at their numbers and suspected they weren't quite right, and your research has proven that. For all the talk of skewing polls, the right seems to have no problem with these frauds putting out magic numbers. They obviously didn't watch Sesame Street when they were kids.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:05 PM

19. Great work! BTW, did you notice their "WHY US" page

only says "Coming Soon"??? http://gravismarketing.com/why_us.html

Yeah, it's a sign of "Top-Tier Sotware and Systems" when part of your webpage is still under construction!



ETA: I was going to correct my "Sotware" typo, but decided it actually describes Gravis' services perfectly.

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Response to beac (Reply #19)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:10 PM

83. "Why us?" I already know the

answer! If you want sociopaths like mitt romney to be ahead getting 60% of the Black vote, for pete's sake, we're your guys!



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Response to beac (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:46 PM

197. top tears...

"top-tier sotware and systems" yet they are using Bluehost.com

The domain name was registered on April 21st, 2010... not many elections since then to need polling on.
The domain registrant information went private in June of this year. I wonder why.

Anyone with a paid account on DomainTools.com could get the Whois history for the domain name and even MORE information.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:05 PM

21. shaking head

mouth open

k&r

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:07 PM

22. Just wow! DU is awesome!

R&

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:08 PM

23. Nice work

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:08 PM

24. I expected to see a pic of Jeff Gannon there.

Another fraudulent operation.

Adelson funded, no doubt.

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Response to grasswire (Reply #24)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:46 PM

57. I thought that's who Mike HARDin was

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:08 PM

25. Excellent research.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:12 PM

27. Oops... n/t

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:13 PM

28. Nice work, grantcart. I'm wondering now if the dude is posting here on DU. Hmmm.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:15 PM

29. fantastic

thanks for your excellent work!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:16 PM

30. K & R !!!






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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:17 PM

31. Link to first arrival at DU on Sept. 4th of "Gravismarketing"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021265606


Do you think Doug should be allowed to remain as a poster on DU?

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Response to DURHAM D (Reply #31)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:27 PM

68. I remember being in that thread

and immediately telling him he was biased, and one of those fraudulent companies that tried to make it a horserace. Well, you can see it all now, and it appears I was right on target

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Response to DURHAM D (Reply #31)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:16 PM

85. He got on that thread too..defending donations

for Marc Rubio..that's all I needed to see. DU has been some tough learning curve for gravis.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:17 PM

32. Good job, figured as much.

I posted in that htread, looked up the company, and laughed.

Justs another quick-buck scammer looking to fleece gullible Republicans.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:22 PM

33. Excellent work, which

proves that "fair and balanced" is creating the impression that psychos rule this country. Lying is Genius. Greed is good. Vague is brilliant. Cheating is American.

Nate factored in this bullshit poll that shows Romney winning the black vote..

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123534

Here's Nate:

There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

Now, that was a nice way of saying the poll is bullshit, but why the hell is Nate Silver giving these polls credibility? The poll is ludicrous.

If the OP can expose a fraudulent polling company, why can't the MSM?

Still, if they want to take these absurd polls seriously an increase Republican delusion, so be it.

Just because Republicans are complaining about the polls doesn't mean polls by fraudsters have to be given merit.




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Response to ProSense (Reply #33)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:26 PM

39. Real poll: Post-Debate Colorado Polls Shows 4-Point Obama Lead

Post-Debate Colorado Polls Shows 4-Point Obama Lead
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021488451

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Response to ProSense (Reply #39)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:22 PM

88. HA! nm

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Response to ProSense (Reply #33)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:20 PM

87. Excellent question, ProSense.. If grantcart can

expose a fraudulent polling company why can't Nate Silver?!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:22 PM

34. Great piece, thanks

I had seen them used in some averages and thought they sounded kind of strange.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:23 PM

35. What an impressive report, grantcart!!

If I ever meet a man that inspires me to date again, I want you to check him out for me first!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:24 PM

36. Busted! Bwahahaha!!!



Thank you grantcart. Excellent work!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:25 PM

37. You are a hero sir!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:25 PM

38. They donated to the Romney campaign

I've brought this up several times. They are frauds.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:28 PM

41. Excellent detective work Grantcart

You have a sense of how organizations do hiring and background checks that sounds like you have experience in this field.

What lowlifes republicans must rely on to herd the sheep.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:28 PM

42. Nice Work.... what kills me is he uses the photo you posted on his website (the one of him)...

on his consulting website....it just screams dufus?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:29 PM

43. Is it un-Democratic to want to punch his lights out?

He has that kind of face I just want to, you know, punch.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:34 PM

46. Thank you, grandcart.

Great work.

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Response to gademocrat7 (Reply #46)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:36 PM

49. Sorry, grantcart

typo on my part.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:35 PM

47. I found a blog with Kaplan trying to defend himself in the comments

This is from a few weeks ago, when people simply thought Gravis was heavily biased in its sampling -- and even then they were ripping it apart. Kaplan's own semi-literate responses are particularly interesting.

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html

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Response to starroute (Reply #47)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:51 PM

77. You are so right about Kaplan's 'semi-literate' responses.

Another good find. It appears that even a hint of criticism smokes him out.

That blog btw, was an interesting read. Thanks starroute!

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Response to starroute (Reply #47)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:16 PM

86. Anonymous posted that there is a money trail / Republican paid operative.

Besides campaign contributions, what money trail would there be?

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #86)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:15 PM

110. If he was being paid for campaign services

That would be in the FEC filings of whatever campaigns were paying him.

There's also his own PAC, which I mentioned elsewhere in this thread.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:36 PM

48. I just did the google street view thingie for

their address at 910 Belle Avenue, Winter Springs, FL

It is a smal office strip and lists these businesses:

Central Florida Environmental‎
Integrity Restoration & Remodeling‎
Mars Financial Group‎
Micro Innovations‎
Music Teachers Collective‎
Pro-Co Inc‎
Pro-Rehab Contracting Inc‎
Products Llc JB‎
Solutions of America‎
Total Water Treatment, inc‎










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Response to berni_mccoy (Reply #51)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:13 PM

127. I see it now has 52 comments. nt

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:42 PM

52. Yeah, it was easy to see when he posted here.

What a loser this guy is. I suspect he'll have a show on Faux very soon.

Nice work Grantcart, I hope the move goes smoothly.



Julie

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:42 PM

53. Dude is still a member...

Hasn't been PPred yet.

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Response to trumad (Reply #53)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:27 PM

89. Well, the next time he shows up on a thread

..maybe this one? We can alert his uber bogus poll ass.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:43 PM

54. wow....+1,000,000

*SIGH*

So many crooks...so many scams...so many liars.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:44 PM

55. Fans of Gravis on DU often say "We know it leans GOP, but we need the full data set..."

or some equally incoherent nonsense. And, yes, of course, they point to Silver and others including the Gravis numbers in their averages. This story, and your research here, should put all of that to bed. It will be very interesting to see who continues to post Gravis numbers with just the very weak "qualifier" that they are "Republican leaning." They - supposing these three con artists even qualifier for a "they" - are not merely "Republican leaning. They are just what many of us have always said they were - a pure GOP PR invention, a nothing, a zero. At some point, posting their polls with only that very flaccid qualifier functions as aiding and abetting a fraud, and should at the very least be looked at closely by admins and juries on this board.

Fantastic work.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:46 PM

56. From his website in 2010....

Doug Kaplan was Born in Brooklyn, New York, I grew up as the middle child of seven siblings. Early on, I developed a love of project development. By the age of 14, I had read several books . It was at this time that I knew what I wanted to do with my life. Upon graduating from high school, I entered Valencia and Devry University, I quickly found work developing my first project for Discovery Marketing. I learned a lot with the company, as I was responsible for their first national campaign. The most important lesson I learned was the importance of pushing the envelope and not being afraid to take risks. My technique has continued to evolve to the present day.

I am currently a freelance professional, working from my private office in Orlando I enjoy meeting other professionals and following the latest trends. I enjoy attending conferences and symposiums, as well as adding more books to my reading list. Although I am highly sought after, I am always open to new projects. No job is too big or too small. Call me today at 407-242-1870.

Doug Kaplan
(407) 242-1870
1931 South Prairie Dunes
Oviedo, Florida 32765

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Response to pkdu (Reply #56)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:49 PM

58. A "freelance professional"

Oh my.

I also love "By the age of 14, I had read several books."



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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #58)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:12 PM

64. My Fave line too!.....he left out " I had also graduated from Crayola University" nt

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #58)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:30 PM

91. I know.. I had to read that

twice. "I had read several books."

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Response to pkdu (Reply #56)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:59 PM

100. "By the age of 14, I had read several books."

OMG. My 19 month old has already outpaced him.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:50 PM

59. gravismarketing.com is hiding behind a Domain Privacy Service

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Response to IDemo (Reply #59)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:42 PM

74. Hmmmm.....


Domain Privacy Service
1958 South 950 East
Provo, Utah -
United States
Phone: +1.8017659400

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Response to Aerows (Reply #74)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:20 PM

128. Hmmmm ..... indeed n/t

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:55 PM

60. Excellent work. Is there a way to send this to Rachel, Al Sharpton, Big Ed or even to the

MSM like the NYT?

I'll send it around anyhow. Great job, thanks for doing all that work. So sick of frauds undermining our electoral process and I think it's time to strengthen laws against this kind of fraud.

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Response to sabrina 1 (Reply #60)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:23 PM

65. stopped for gas. I waive all copyright. any use OK.

If it is used by others pls mention DU as the original site.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:56 PM

61. Thanks extremely, grantcart et DU al, for this case study on a vital topic, polling as a business,

rather than as research. Will share!

Please take a bow!


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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:59 PM

62. Great work!

Thank you!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:08 PM

63. Wow! Thanks for all You did!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:23 PM

66. good work

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:31 PM

69. One of my brother's fraternity brothers

attempted to falsify his senior thesis. Rather than gathering statistics, he rolled dice. He flunked.

We have a polling organization that does much the same, with less random results, and his numbers are reported, analyzed and legitimized.

We've got trouble, my friends.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:32 PM

70. thanks for ferreting out this loser and.....

it points out the reason why du is at this moment 1,130 in the alexia us traffic rank...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:37 PM

72. If you have a journal, please save it there so it will be easy to find

If you don't have a journal, you can start one. We used to have a Research section, but it was closed because of insufficient usage.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:38 PM

73. Bravo. You do the DU proud grantcart.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:48 PM

75. Well done!

 

Great work.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:50 PM

76. Doug Kaplan sounds Romneyesque.. no wonder he's

pushing him with phony polls.

Good Job, grant!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:59 PM

79. Bravo!!!! K&R n/t

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:59 PM

80. Wow. Just wow.

Great find.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:05 PM

81. Too lazy to go further but 6 out of 6 pages on Gravis were all updated same day (JUNE 3,2012)

Also, the name of Thomas E Young PhD is listed as author of some (or all) of the PDFs. Tried google on the name with no relevant results.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:15 PM

84. keep kicking this nt

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:28 PM

90. K&R

Great work, grantcart!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:37 PM

92. There's a trail that seems to lead to I Marketing Co.

The address given for Kaplan in one of the comments further up, at 1931 S Prairie Dunes Ct, Oviedo, FL 32765, also appears as the address for something called I Marketing Co.
http://start.cortera.com/company/research/k2k1osr3l/i-marketing-co/

Doug Kaplan appears in any number of listings as the president or the CEO of I Marketing Co. For example, http://start.cortera.com/company/research/k2k1osr3l/i-marketing-co/
http://www.manta.com/c/mm3tk88/i-marketing-company
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Oviedo/doug-kaplan-P1139882.aspx

And it appears that I Marketing got itself in a bit of trouble back in 2005:

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/02/14/news_pf/Business/Disney_adds_to_troubl.shtml

<Jake> Wood, 27, may have a bigger problem on his hands with Disney. Last month, the Burbank, Calif., company added him to a list of defendants it accuses of infringing on its copyrights and trademarks.

According to the suit, filed in the U.S. District Court in Orlando, Wood and several other defendants representing I Marketing Co. of Oviedo allegedly marketed "Disney" vacation packages without Disney's permission. Unsolicited faxes showed images of Disney characters; customers who called the toll-free number allegedly were told they had reached the "Disney Reservation Center" or "Disney Reservations."

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Response to starroute (Reply #92)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:41 PM

94. Kaplan and his pal Jake Wood were in the junk fax business

This mentions the company name "IMC," which is presumably the same as I Marketing Co.

http://www.junkfax.org/fax/profiles/FloridaReservations.htm

Doug Kaplan purchased fax.com's number database from a former fax.com employee and is sending out their travel faxes using this database. So if you formerly got fax.com faxes and are now getting these faxes, it's not surprising.

You've been hit by Kaplan and his associates if you got a fax saying something like this:

5 days and 4 nights in Orlando
Fun in the Sun (As Seen on TV)
response number: 800-617-6442; Remove number: 800-603-1712

<snip>

They used to be at 407-215-8565 and were located at 460 State Rd. 436, Casselberry, FL 32707. They used the company name IMC. 30-40 Telemarketers worked out of the office there but they moved out in late 2004.

Contacts:

Doug Kaplan aka Douglas Joseph Kaplan of Oviedo, FL (age 26) is listed on the DNS registration for floridareservation.net. Doug is famous for Vacation Showroom (see Rip Off Report Vacation Showroom (Doug Kaplan) ) and Rip Off Report VACATION SHOWROOM - Doug Kaplan)
Lance Sawyer, Doug's partner (see Rip Off ReportVacation Showroom, direct Reservations, vacation 123,wcc Travel, wholesale Connection Company ripoff Maitland Florida)
Jason Giza aka Jason A Giza (age 26) (has been doing this since 1999; Richard Z. has details)
Jacob R Wood (age 27) (business partner of Jason Giza)
Anthony Alfred Arrigoni aka Tony Arrigoni (partner of Giza; also well known in the travel business)

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Response to starroute (Reply #94)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:45 PM

96. Wow. n/t

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Response to starroute (Reply #94)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:46 PM

98. LOL - what a group

typical Young Republican shysters

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Response to DURHAM D (Reply #98)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:02 PM

101. I love "Tony Arrigoni"

Watta buncha doot-da-doo's, as we used to say.

It's like the fucking cast from Boiler Room.

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Response to starroute (Reply #94)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:54 PM

99. Complaints about Kaplan at Rifoff Report

http://www.ripoffreport.com/hotel/vacation-showroom/vacation-showroom-doug-kaplan-98j76.htm

Vacation Showroom (Doug Kaplan) rip-off! The company doesn't pay employees correctly. It's a fraud vacation!

vacation showroom is a complete ripoff... first off, they dont pay the staff hourly which is illegal. straight commission. Noone goes by their real names. vacation showroom is located at 2700 westhall ln suite 110 maitland fl 32751 they have also been known as w.c.c. travel "whole sale connection"

lets get down to the brass tax. Douglas Kaplan is the owner. He's a little weird quiet guy who talks behind everyones back. He doesn't say anything to anyone directly because he isn't a big fan of confrontation. his cell# is 407-463-2157 you can call him directly for a refund. he has money. or e-mail him at dougkaplan32765@yahoo.com

Also they only take check by phone. Doug wasn't able to get a merchant account cause noone trusts him at all--actually come to think of it--the resorts he's selling the vacations for doesnt know he's involved otherwise they wouldnt deal with him--so they use other names....

if you get a fax from them just rip it up--actually you know it's from them cause there isnt a business name on the fax - "very clever" it just states you can go to orlando for $99---but it goes to 296.99 right when you call--then if you dont buy it on that call they say they are running out--complete lie----dont buy it..dont call them....dont fall into the same thing alot of people do..i used to work for doug answering phones--he is a complete weasel.


http://www.ripoffreport.com/travel-companies/vacation-showroom/vacation-showroom-doug-kapla-md4ea.htm

VACATION SHOWROOM - Doug Kaplan rip-off It's a fraud FLORIDA vacation Customer Service is rude and hangs up if want to talk to supervisors

MY WIFE RECEIVED A FAX AT HER WORK PLACE SOVEREIGN BANK, ASBURY PARK, NEW JERSEY. It just states you can go to orlando for $99--- but it goes to 296.98 right when you call--then if you dont buy it on that call they say they are running out the vacations--complete lie - they don't accept Credit Card only cheque over the phone - It should have raised a red flag but I don't know how fell into the trap, maybe because my wife received the fax at her work place.

After struggling on the phone for several hours I finally got thru some supervisor named Mary Johnson X 0101 who promised me and my wife that the Refund cheque was processed on April 7, 2004 and that I should be getting the cheque in the mail in 3-4 weeks. It's been more than 5 weeks but I haven't received anything yet. I wish I'd done some background check on the company before paying $296.98 to them over the Phone.

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Response to starroute (Reply #92)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:44 PM

95. Oh -- Kaplan also has his very own PAC

http://www.electionfund.org/Committee/Protect-Candidate-Speech-Pac

Protect Candidate Speech Pac
910 Belle Ave Suite 1042, Winter Springs, FL 32708
Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan

Committee Name: Protect Candidate Speech Pac
Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan
Committee Designation: Unauthorized
Committee Type: PAC
Address: 910 Belle Ave Suite 1042
Winter Springs, FL 32708
Committee Party: Unknown
Filing Frequency: Quarterly filer
Interest Group Category:
Connected Organization:
Last Update: Sep 2, 2012

On edit: Here's the link for the FEC filings.
http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00526020

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Response to starroute (Reply #92)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:14 PM

109. Here are links for that Disney case

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Response to starroute (Reply #109)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:43 PM

118. Brilliant work

Those are good links for people to work from.

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Response to starroute (Reply #92)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:32 PM

114. Kaplan seems to have a lot more ventures

It seems like Douglas J. Kaplan and D. Joseph Kaplan are the same person.

http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Longwood/douglas-kaplan-7558934.aspx

Companies associated with Douglas Kaplan
D K Advertising, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
Discovery Marketing, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Longwood, FL
Fine West Global, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
I Marketing Company President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL


http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Oviedo/1931-S-Prairie-Dunes-Ct-Oviedo-FL-32765-a1086636.aspx

1931 S Prairie Dunes Ct Oviedo, FL 32765

Companies at this address:

K2K End Media, Inc.
D K Advertising, Inc.
I Marketing Company
US Travel Services, Inc.
Dk Equities of Orlando, Inc.
K2K Media, LLC
Douglas Kaplan
Kaplan Consulting Company
Fine West Global, Inc.
Equity Communications Enterprises Inc

People at this address:

Doug Kaplan
Karen Kaplan
D Joseph Kaplan
Douglas Kaplan
Dj Kaplan

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Response to starroute (Reply #114)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:36 PM

115. It just get better and better.

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Response to starroute (Reply #114)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:42 PM

117. Discovery Marketing was also in the fax spam business

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.ftc.gov/reports/mailbox/mailboxreport.pdf

Defendant: Illinois v. Discovery Marketing, Inc. and Source Marketing, Inc. dba Fax Source
Headquarters: Discovery Marketing: Longwood, FL; Source Marketing: Littleton, CO
Product or Business: Unsolicited faxes offering discount vacations without disclosing the full terms and conditions of the offer
Action: Final Judgment and Consent Decree (April 6, 2000)
Court or Agency: U.S. District Court, Central District of Illinois

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Response to starroute (Reply #114)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:49 PM

121. And here's an FCC warning about the spam faxes

http://transition.fcc.gov/eb/Orders/2001/eb01tc027b.html

FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20554

May 11, 2001

Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
1567 Oberlin Terrace 740 Florida Central
Parkway, Suite 1028
Lake Mary, Florida 32746 Longwood, Florida 32750

Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
1931 S. Prairie Dunes Court P. O. Box 521612
Oviedo, Florida 32765 Longwood, Florida 32752

Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
P. O. Box 941990 531 N Hwy 17-92, Suite 6
Maitland, Florida 32794 Longwood, Florida 32750 US

Douglas Kaplan
President
US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. .
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
Box 522493
Longwood, Florida 32752

RE: EB-01-TC-027

Dear Mr. Kaplan:

This is an official CITATION issued pursuant to section
503(b)(5) of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended (the
Communications Act), 47 U.S.C. 503(b)(5).

It has come to our attention that your company recently sent
an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile machine
(see attachment). Pursuant to the Telephone Consumer Protection
Act of 1991 (TCPA) and the Commission's rules, it is unlawful to
use a ``telephone facsimile machine, computer, or other device to
send an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile
machine.'' 47 U.S.C. 227(b)(1)(C); 47 C.F.R. 64.1200(a)(3).

In addition to the violation identified above, it appears
that your company has also violated the provisions of the TCPA
and the Commission's rules that require any person or entity who
sends a message via a telephone facsimile machine to clearly mark
``in a margin at the top or bottom of each transmitted page of
the message or on the first page of the transmission, the date
and time it is sent and an identification of the business, other
entity, or individual sending the message and the telephone
number of the sending machine or of such business, other entity,
or individual.'' 47 U.S.C. 227(d)(1)(B); 47 C.F.R.
68.318(d).

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:38 PM

93. kick

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:45 PM

97. So - Doug Kaplan =

Persona non Gravis...

Among other things. Great work, grant cart!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:04 PM

102. Great job on this...thank you.

I'm impressed with what you've done, and hope to see more deep digging like your post.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:06 PM

103. Good luck. I used to live on Craycroft and Broadway in Tucson

 

back in '01 - and yes, that's where I lived when 9/11 happened.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:07 PM

104. I'm forwarding this to a friend at the NYT

and some people on the campaign.

Anyone else have other contacts?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:08 PM

105. If the Internet had been around in 1968, world history would have been changed for the better!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:12 PM

106. Patting myself on the back for seeing this early

"It is not Republican-leaning. It is a pure GOP front organization."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125193207#post6

"Gravis is not "right-leaning." It is a front organization. Completely non-credible and therefore not worthwhile to post."

http://betterment.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=93245

Also interesting to see who is the biggest sucker / Gravis promoter on these boards. Very interesting indeed.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:18 PM

111. Wow. Good work.

K&R

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:21 PM

112. Kicked and Recommended

and a shout out to you for one fine piece of investigative journalism!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:24 PM

113. On 2nd viewing I realize he looks like John Lovitz, Jr.

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:37 PM

116. Impressive ferreting!

Kudos to you for shining the light on this!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:43 PM

119. Very well done!

Now how many more of these minor "pop-up" pollers are similar scam artists?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:47 PM

120. Thank you Grantcart.

You wonderful you.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:56 PM

122. Great job, another GOTCHA!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:57 PM

123. k&r for exposure. Nicely done. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:00 PM

124. Sent to Sam Wang - along with some math

Sam Wang has a great poll-aggregation site: election.princeton.edu . He also includes your friend at Gravis, and your info via dailykos is already there.

I added my own twist: a math-based analysis of whether Gravis poll numbers look real or made up. (They don't look real. He has his 'favorite numbers' for filling in the after-the-decimal-point digit that makes a poll number sound oh-so-real. I mean, if a pollster goes through the trouble to report values as exact as 43.9%, they sound 'sciencey' and must be real, right?)

Here are the nasty details:


I pulled up a poll from the Gravis web site, that gave a number of 3-significant-figure percent values. I took only the last digit of each poll number (- the number after the decimal point, which should be randomly distributed from zero to nine -) and it looked strange. I counted the occurrences of odd and even digits (32 odd, 10 even) and applied the "Monobit frequency test", and found that this distribution has a 1-in-one-thousand chance of occurring by accident likilihood of occurring by accident. That's way too low - suggesting the numbers were, uh, invented.

It is true that I 'polluted' this test because I first noticed the non-random pattern and then picked a test that was geared to the non-randomness that I found. Also, Monobit requires more than 100 entries; I just had 42. (And that a true random collection of numbers does sometimes look nonrandom.)

But in my defense: this was a quick first effort, from a polling sample picked at random, and a more sophisticated analysis would probably identify an even higher non-randomness.


Gravis poll used for evaluation:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_FL_1001.pdf

Last significant figure of each entry:

307173 94359 07797 0559
37 0394517 4913950 532372.

Frequency of occurrence:
0. =5
1. =3.
2. =2.
3. =8.
4. =3.
5. = 6
6. = 0.
7. = 8.
8. = 0.
9. = 7.
---

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Response to fiorello (Reply #124)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:28 PM

135. Nice analysis. I get similar

results by way of a likelihood ratio chi-square test (x2 = 28.999, p = .0007). Unfortunately, there are too many rows for an exact test with my software.

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Response to fiorello (Reply #124)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:50 PM

137. A more appropriate test than my earlier one is probably a simple

goodness of fit. With this, chi-square = 19.905, p = .019. With the small sample size, Cohen's w = 0.688 -- a very large effect size.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:03 PM

125. Great work, all Americans are indebted to you.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:06 PM

126. You never know something until you "know it"

and I knew Gravis was full of shit. Now I "know" it. Thank you so much. A hearty k/r!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:24 PM

129. knew gravis was fraud

since those suspicious colorado numbers .

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:27 PM

130. I Am Impressed With The Speed This Clown Made Himself A Player

It will be interesting to see how this all ends.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:37 PM

131. K&R ...

Great work, Grantcart ....

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:48 PM

132. Doug Kaplan can't be doing very well

based on the size of his Gold Chain.

A real Pikey would have at least three.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:22 PM

134. Okay, someone has to be shallow.

Damn, that is one shiny shirt.

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #134)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:40 PM

175. LOL

Thanks for the giggle. Nice to see you!

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Response to cyberswede (Reply #175)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:27 PM

176. You too!

Miss ya.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:49 PM

136. Action required:

This article in the Denver Business Journal is pimping the Gravis Marketing "poll" in CO. I don't have any of the accounts required to post a comment, no Facebook, no Yahoo, etc. Can someone please comment at the article and include a link to this thread? I would hate to see the vote depressed by misinformation.

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2012/10/06/romney-leads-in-1st-post-debate-poll.html

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Response to reflection (Reply #136)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:10 PM

143. On second thought: let them waste their money!

If the Denver Biz Journal believes this guy, they'll just end up fooling themselves. So best of luck to him! May he be so successful that next year he can retire to the Cayman Islands aling with Mitt.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:58 PM

138. Well done.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 08:17 PM

139. Very impressive, grantcart, thank you so much

I am kind of behind the eight ball on this subject. Could someone concisely tell me how Nate Silver has been punked? I check his site regularly and his numbers are the ones I trust the most. Did he give too much credence to these guys and his numbers have been adversely influenced? If so, in what way? I hope someone can let me know. I hoping this might mean some of Nate's numbers have been under weighted,* but that is a stab in the dark. I have not been on this train.

Hopefully, someone can fill me in on how Nate's numbers are impacted....

K & R this thread.

Sam

*meaning Romney's numbers are not as good as they seem; Obama's are better than seen. Didn't want to be misunderstood in using these words.

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Response to Samantha (Reply #139)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:09 PM

142. Silver cited Gravis in an article on Saturday as evidence of the Romney "bump"

There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/#more-35637


Gravis is also included in his sidebar state roundups.

DemocratSinceBirth pointed out on DU:

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%

Sloppy work by Nate there.

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #142)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 11:09 PM

146. Thank you so much Denzil_DC

I was hoping someone would say something like that -- that Silver's numbers had Romney overweighted and Obama underweighted. So you have specifically pointed out one swing state where that happened, and I assume there are more. This was something I had noticed myself yesterday, and I could not believe Romney's debate performance (meaning performance art) had changed the numbers in some states that much. I wonder if they influenced Florida in any way?

Thanks again.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #146)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 11:45 PM

147. You're welcome, Samantha

I saw after I posted that ProSense had posted much the same information upthread.

It's not so much a question of weighting (Nate's weighting of Gravis has usually been low - i.e. the amount of significance awarded its results) as outright contamination and manipulation of the narrative and polling averages (along with Nate's singling Gravis out in his post since there was very little CO polling available at that point).

Digging around a few places, it seems that Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has now chimed in in the comments at the Angry Bear blog:

Sam Wang Oct 7, 2012 4:14:00 PM

Sam Wang here from the Princeton Election Consortium.

I think that Mr. Kaplan could allay concerns by specifying whether he follows generally accepted principles of polling as described by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), whether he is a member, and where he gets his technical expertise. To my knowledge, reputable pollsters of all stripes, clientwise, do that.

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html


And Mr. gravismarketing has now been PPR'd.

It's obvious there are other firms out there up much the same tricks. We need to expose them.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 09:23 PM

141. You outdid yourself, my friend!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:45 PM

144. More repube lies. More repube fraud. More repube cheating. More repube democracy-trashing

God I love seeing these vermin getting roasted under the white-hot light of truth.

Thank you, Grantcart. Good for you.

I'm proud to share Democratic Underground with the likes of you.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:59 PM

145. Absolutely outstanding stuff, grantcart! ... Thank you.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 11:58 PM

148. This is real investigative journalism...

Fantastic job of outing a confidence-man who's still actually influencing the electoral process. It's an amazing piece of work, the kind of work that I'm old enough to remember used to be done by actual journalists working for news organizations. Now, those organizations are the ones being duped, to their great shame, by this con-men; still being duped as I write this. Just wow.

It's painful for me to see some of the names of the those being duped! People I respected; but I've been forced to alter my opinions about them. Folks who would fall for this guy when cursory investigation turns up all the two-bit, petty-thief, boiler-room, scam-artist facts, are not worthy of an iota of respect.


This is really something! Well done sir.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:03 AM

149. Nice work...btw

Does anybody know who the dude in the necktie actually is?

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Response to Ken Burch (Reply #149)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 01:00 AM

184. He is a model. He might not even be American.

Those stock photos come from all over the world.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:05 AM

150. Great work! Thank you!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:49 AM

151. Awesome work! Is this being sent to HuffPo? and Silver?

I can't believe they'd use a STOCK photo for the bio pic. It's obviously a stock photo...

This is all so very plausible. One day in the early 90s, I met a well dressed man at a happy hour downtown. He was in town working on a Congressional campaign for a republican woman. He fancied me a bit, so he was talking and talking.. about what he did. He said that anyone can call themselves a political consultant. He told me to basically get some cards printed up, put the volunteer experience I had, and I could get clients right away. He had no real credentials, he told me, just started doing it... It's a world of bullshit.

Man.. I hope that this news gets out EVERYWHERE.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #151)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:40 AM

152. yes, this is awesome. I really hope this has been sent to CNN and everywhere else

so that this ridiculous, manipulative creep can get his due. It is disturbing that one dude can basically make shit up and his made-up, pro-Romney numbers will be cited in a presidential race. And nobody else even bothered to check before a DU-er went after him.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:43 AM

153. The idea that one jerk could depress votes or otherwise impact the election

should have serious repercussions. This needs to be sent to every media outlet that has used this jerk's information.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:57 AM

154. What about "We Ask America"

They look kind of suspicious also.

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Response to AnnieK401 (Reply #154)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:29 AM

155. That one is run by the right wing Illinois Manufacturers Association

IMA is a right wing corporate lobbying group and has opposed a litany of worker's rights. See more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Manufacturers%27_Association

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Response to MessiahRp (Reply #155)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:40 AM

167. Thanks!

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Response to MessiahRp (Reply #155)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:36 PM

181. I did some research based on your post:

I created a new op: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021503745

Thanks for the hedz up! We Ask America is another fraudulent polling outlet.

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Response to Raine1967 (Reply #181)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 05:53 AM

186. Sweet, get the word out!

It's funny as hell that when the polls don't go their way, the GOP claims fraudulent polling however they own a good portion of the polling firms.

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Response to MessiahRp (Reply #186)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 11:24 PM

187. I've been trying!

It's just not getting traction.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:56 AM

156. Holy Crap. I knew that asswipe was a liar.

Excuse my language. I went off on Doug Kaplan yesterday as a fraud for his AA#'s in the CO poll. I knew something was not right.

grantcart, you are brilliant. Now I can go to bed knowing that CO poll is total crap and every other Gravis Marketing poll is worth toilet paper.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #156)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:21 AM

157. This Colorado poll, however, is NOT "total crap"!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:30 AM

158. WEASKAMERICA.

Good work. Like to see the same micro-surgery done to WeAskAmerica.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:06 AM

159. That is one...

friggin' groovy Disco shirt you're sporting there Doogy.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:49 AM

161. I first noticed Gravis when suddenly Allen was up by 5 or 7 against Kaine

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021346488

great research grantcart - thanks for giving us the complete picture.
They are still at it if you check out realcclearpolitics current poll page

Check their "results" in Colorado on Sat. 10/6/12
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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Response to underpants (Reply #161)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:57 AM

162. Yep.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:59 AM

163. I LOVE detective work such as yours!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:15 AM

164. I Was Part Of This Great Unraveling So I Would Like To Add One Caveat

I think it has been established that he has ties to the Republican party despite his protestations to the contrary. I think it also has been established that he has been involved in some shady business deals in the past and has inflated his credentials.


However, I don't think we can say with certainty he doesn't conduct any polls at all. You don't need much of a staff when you use you a predictive dialer.

He can just be a crappy pollster with his finger on the scale who has been involved in some shady deals in the past and lied or misled about his Republican ties.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #164)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:11 AM

166. Agreed - I think it's his competence and methods that are open to question

It looks like a brand-new, one-man band, from someone involved in cutting corners in the past. I found a poll from a few days ago in which he said the Libertarian candidate was polling 10% in Ohio, and Republicans were pretty scathing about that. He may be making the number of robocalls he claims, but they don't look as though there's a decent attempt at making them representative of demographics.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #166)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:01 AM

171. Small Correction

He doesn't use a predictive dialer. Salespeople used predictive dialers. A predictive dialer is when the phone call is placed automatically and the caller speaks to whoever answers it. Our "friend" uses a robocaller with automated responses. A pre recorded voice asks you to press a button on your phone to indicate your answers. You do not need much of a staff to do that but you do need to know what you're doing.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #164)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:59 PM

174. Yes we can until he proves otherwise.


He doesn't have a sustainable business model for a pollster.

He doesn't have academic credentials for a pollster.

and there is no evidence before he started providing numbers on a national race that he had ever done a single poll.

Do a google search and find out what was his first published poll?

I can't find anything in 2011.

Now let me ask you another question if you set a polling operation that published results but never ran a poll and it was done intentionally to induce people to make contributions under the premise that their candidate was doing better than he really was would that be grounds for criminal fraud?

But putting aside the question of whether or not he conducted any polls or not the real issue is that the media has nobody checking at the gate. They have a corral of people they are broadcasting results for and they never put in a couple of hours to check if they were legitimate or not. No matter what standard you use Gravis Marketing is not going to meet it.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #174)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:17 PM

177. what a low state "media" has fallen to

I mourn for the loss of "journalism"

But for you, grantcart--

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Response to grantcart (Reply #174)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 01:15 AM

185. Do they have a "polling" major at Devry? I think not.

I see their rather cheap and sleazy commercials on late-night TV all the time, interdispersed between the cartoons. They have 90 "campus" locations and an acceptance rate of 93 percent, and our hero read a few books when he was a teen, so he was surely a fine candidate. It is a "for profit" educational institution.

The big question here, though is one you raised in your last paragraph--the media has NOBODY CHECKING AT THE GATE. Why? Are they grabbing this info to make a horse race, to hell with the facts, so they can sell ad time? Or is it even more nefarious?

The media wonders why the kids turn to social media and other sources for news and screen entertainment--but when they fall down on the job this way, who can blame them?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:03 AM

165. dKos has it


Gravis Marketing Exposed As A Fraud (via Democratic Underground)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/07/1141340/-Gravis-Marketing-Exposed-As-A-Fraud-via-Democratic-Underground
Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 11:41 AM PDT

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:47 AM

168. k & r.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:46 AM

169. Meet Chris Young - Rhode Island

"Democratic" candidate for Mayor in Providence, Hard right religious lunatic and head case.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:52 AM

170. Bookmarking for GOOD future reference.

here are many people that I think will not like reading this. I don't care

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:11 PM

172. K & R

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:32 PM

173. I was trying to do that google image search thingy

to find out where the photo came from they left a lot of open holes. But I see it already came up as stock art.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:13 PM

178. Kicking in case anyone has missed it. nt

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:36 PM

180. Wow, excellent work!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:45 AM

182. REC 348--if I could rec it a thousand times I would.

You're brilliant, and great work. Thanks for that!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 04:18 PM

188. Possible proof

After reading this, I decided to do some analysis of one of their "polls.

Results are here

http://www.logarchism.com/2012/10/14/a-gravis-fraud/

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Response to dawolf (Reply #188)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 04:21 PM

189. Nice work!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:23 PM

190. Well, well, well... I do believe we discussed this a month ago!

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Response to Raster (Reply #190)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:37 AM

191. Thanks for that, hadn't seen it at the time

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Response to grantcart (Reply #191)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:54 AM

192. I had my suspicions. Your research and tenacity do us PROUD!

We should NEVER underestimate or flippantly dismiss some of the DU contributions to the national political discourse.

Thank you for going the extra mile!

KAPLAN IS A SCUMBAG! His purpose is to muddy the waters and confuse the issues.

Nice takedown!

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Response to Raster (Reply #192)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:08 PM

193. That and not having a TV after a move gave me a lot of time with nothing to do


Other than that I am 100% committed!!

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Response to grantcart (Reply #193)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:18 PM

195. Move to Tucson?

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Response to Raster (Reply #195)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:12 AM

198. Yep

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Response to grantcart (Reply #198)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 05:09 AM

199. Love Tucson. I have family there and go back a couple times a year.

Southern Arizona (Baja Arizona) is completely different from Maricopa.

I grew up in a small town called Safford, in the shadow of Mt. Graham.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:27 PM

194. And people, don't miss part 2 of this story!!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:34 PM

196. Kick

 

Wow

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