Not a good sign for Obama/Biden 2012....

[matmar]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/08/22/election-model-with-100-success-rate-predicts-romney-victory/

Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory

....God Forbid.

[spanone]

1. bwahahahahahaaaaa

[pinboy3niner]

3. Somehow they failed to take into account Romney /Ryan

[Dawson Leery]

2. Allan Lichtman's model goes back to 1860.

Google: "The 13 Keys To The Presidency".

[matmar]

4. I googled it...

I didn't see any keys for ....

Voter Supression of Democratic Voters

Computerized Vote Tally Hacking

Purchasing of elections (Citizens United) with secret undisclosed cash

[CJCRANE]

5. Apparently it's not a prediction. It's a "postdiction" for the past 30 years

where they analysed data and found the commonalities.

I'm sure you could take different data points and get a different result.

ETA: pointed out in a previous thread here by a new DUer

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=75224

[longship]

6. Extrapolations are dangerous and highly inaccurate.

Every President elected was Caucasian, therefore Obama will be defeated in 2008.

Get it?

Do not extrapolate arbitrary data.

This model seems like confirmation bias.

[leftyohiolib]

8. "Every President elected was Caucasian" false ..nt

[longship]

12. I confess to a bad example.

Another would be helpful. In the last X presidential elections, however state Y voted is who won the election.

We have all heard these things like they are a hard rule. The media plays on them as such. But it is all bullshit.

This is called data mining. You look for a correlation and presume that it is predictive. It is the same thing with books claiming to predict the stock market. Or especially, astrology.

Elections are just as unpredictable as the stock market. Correlations are inevitable. But to claim a correlate is predictive is a statistical fallacy, and therefore nonsensical.

Correlation does not imply causation.

[FreeState]

14. Heres a better one...

Every President has been a non-Mormon

[2Design]

7. stick around and you will come around to believing in obama

[lunatica]

9. Your concern is duly noted

I don't agree with it, but each to their own.

[CJCRANE]

10. More RW "perception management"

intended to demoralize Dems.

Maybe the Dems could come up with some of these type of things too to show the opposite.

[RBInMaine]

11. This is total and complete bullshit, and other models show a strong Obama win i.e. Lichtman's.

It is not just the economy that people vote on by any means, and people understand that the President is not entirely responsible for the economy. If it was, FDR would not have been elected DURING the Great Depression. If it was based on how GOOD the economy was, Humphrey would have beated Nixon. Americans are far more sophisticated that weighing just the economic variable. There are many other factors.

This is a POST-diction model, and it is crap.

[CabCurious]

13. how many times will you post this silliness?

[grantcart]

15. But in good news the DU Bullshit Quotient is up up up

Curious they don't have an electoral college map that actually shows what states they think are going to switch to Romney.