As this Romney "Paid no taxes" Scandal Develops,

[MineralMan]

and just before the GOP convention, I'm seeing a real crisis developing. The problem is simple: If Romney releases his tax filings and the story is true, it will be impossible for him to win the election. If he does not release those filings, then the story becomes automatically true in the minds of many voters, and he cannot win the election. That this information became public just before the convention puts Romney and the GOP in an extremely difficult position. What are the options?

1. Romney stonewalls - This will not work with the Convention, because further information will become available after the Convention that will destroy his candidacy. The GOP knows this, and knows they cannot do anything about it.
2. Romney caves and releases the filings - Disaster again, since he cannot possibly win if he truly paid no taxes for 10 years, and he'll drag down legislative candidates, too.
3. Romney withdraws from the race - This possibility saves Romney's ass, but there's not time to field a candidate who can win the Presidency at this late date, and the race and the GOP are already tarnished badly.
4. The GOP simply accepts that they will lose in November - attempts to minimize the damage and regroup. They nominate Romney and skulk off to lick their wounds. This seems the most likely course of events to me. They decide to punt, and give the other team the ball, and hope they can keep the game alive for the future.

Bottom Line: The GOP is in a lose-lose-lose-lose position. Millions of moderate Republicans become disgusted with the party and either skip the election or vote for the Democratic candidate in multiple races. The Democratic Party wins big.

Anyhow, that's how I'm seeing it today.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. Things are going to be hot in Tampa...

Their convention will resemble the '68 Dem convention in anger and angst. As this scandal goes on, the Paulites and the Tea Baggers will be at the throats of the Repug establishment and their candidate.

I usually don't watch the repig convention, but I might this time.

[MineralMan]

3. I'm not going to actually watch the GOP Convention,

but I'm going to follow it closely in the media. It promises to be a very entertaining event, I think.

The Democratic Convention will be a love-fest.

[DCKit]

2. So it's pretty much a given that Rmoney is toast... how are we doing in the Congressional races?

Our President isn't going to be able to do shit without a working House to back him up.

[MineralMan]

5. A sinking ship takes the lifeboats down with it.

If this all works out as I think it might, the GOP turnout will suck, generally, and that's going to help Democrats in Congressional races and state legislative races. The worse the scandal on the GOP side, the better for Democrats.

I vote for a crippling scandal.

[DCKit]

10. That's my personal fantasy, but I won't be banking on it.

My ultimate fantasy is that all 46 freshman teabaggers will be sent packing, and all the (R) incumbents who converted for the 2010 election along with them.

If we don't take back the House, 2013-2017 is going to be more of the same.

[MineralMan]

15. We can have something to do with that, you know.

Working locally to get out the vote for legislative candidates is what we can do. And we should do that - as much as we are able to. Legislative races are local races, with the exception of the Senate, and those are just statewide races. Campaigning hard for your state and federal legislative candidates is rewarding, and can produce real results. It's hard work, though, if done right.

[DCKit]

22. I live and am registered in DC. I've got no voice beyond DU.

In my adopted home in western VA, they threw out the establishment last November, in both Bath and Highland counties. The Republicans did that. I'm hopeful.

[s-cubed]

54. Help us in VA! nt

[MineralMan]

62. You can help in VA or MD. nt

[jmowreader]

66. Idaho's 1st CD can help you with that...

Our representative's campaign pitch amounts to bragging about the fact the teabaggers have done nothing but obstruct the people's business, and the Democratic Party is running a retired football player named Jimmy Farris--who, unlike Walt Minnick (the Democrat Raul Labrador beat), seems not so blue-doggy.

[pnwmom]

45. Wishful thinking. We need to work as hard on Obama's election as ever.

The race is still tight according to all the polls except one.

[Zen Democrat]

4. 4. is it. And he stonewalls. No way he caves or withdraws -- he's His Royal Highness.

Within his disturbed mind, that is.

[MineralMan]

7. Yes, that's what I think, too.

On the other hand, it's possible that some faction of the GOP might make it impossible for him to stay in as a candidate. Another scandal, introduced by the Republicans, could force Romney's had. The result would be the same, though...disgrace for the Republicans.

[cleduc]

6. I'm not in a place where I've figured out how this will all turn out

But there's little doubt that Romney's had a bad couple of weeks. I suspect that will hurt him some in the only place he seems to understand: money in his bank account via campaign contributions.

Some of this stuff has to make some of these billionaires backing him nervous because his campaign could blow up. A lot of these guys made big money minimizing their financial risks. After this week, a number of them are probably holding back to see how this plays out and whether their money would be better spent further down the ticket.

[cally]

41. Yep. I'm hoping campaign monies are redirected to Dems

Some of these businesses will have to hedge their bets and make up for the massive amounts thye gave so they have a chance with their agenda in DC as it becomes more likely that Obama wins.y

[davidpdx]

71. That's a good point

If Romney's money starts to dry up it's over. It's probably wishful thinking because these people throw around millions like it's a $10 bill, but it could happen.

BTW Welcome to DU!

[malaise]

8. A perfect storm for ReTHUGs

and I'm lovin' it

[MineralMan]

9. So it seems. Fortune is smiling on us.

May it continue.

[Nye Bevan]

11. Stonewalls, nominated anyway, loses.

It would take a bigger man than Romney to withdraw from the race.

[MineralMan]

16. The only way he withdraws is if he is forced to

by a bigger man that he is. It's possible, but unlikely, I think.

[uponit7771]

12. If Romneys taxes are legit he has a win win, if they're not he's gonna lose. Why didn't his dumb

...ass think of this earlier

[MineralMan]

17. Even if his taxes are within the law, if he truly paid no taxes

for 10 years, it's really not going to be OK with middle class taxpayers, regardless of party. It would kill his chances, slim as they already are.

[closeupready]

21. He didn't think of this before, because his greed blinded him.

He avoided taxes legally (and maybe illegally), but didn't realize the American people weren't going to appreciate his fiscal fancy dancing for the brilliance he thinks it is.

[doohnibor]

26. They don't go in for horse dancing

And they certainly resent tax return dancing.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Never Underestimated How Stuck On Stupid This Country Is...

Willard and his big money handlers know it. They know there's a solid 40% of the electorate that hate the coloured fella so much they'll vote for Mittens no matter what. His "campaign" is based on hoping there's another 10% out there...be it racist or ignorant or both...that can be swayed and get just enough to "win" (or be stolen if that hasn't already been fixed). Many of these people "in the middle" live by the false equivelency game of "both sides do it" so you try to make the other side look uglier than your side. Thus any attacks on Willard are quickly turned against the accuser in hopes to gain sympathy and salt the earth for both parties.

Willard will be the nominee and there are many within the rushpublican establishment who think not only he's a credible candidate but he will win. The worst thing Democrats can do at this point is think Willard is so flawed or damaged that he's unelectable. He's the ultimate corporate puppet and there are many poorly informed voters out there.

This is going to be a brutal final 100 days...and Democrats better be ready for the kitchen sink to be thrown and also ready to get out every single voter they can.

[hamsterjill]

37. Absolutely 100% Correct!

Take NOTHING for granted. I sincerely hope that the OP is correct and that Mitt will be easily defeated, but after George W., *I* will take NOTHING for granted.

The Dems should fight this fight like it is the dog fight of their lives (because it is!) and not let up until the outcome is final.

Remember: The Repugs hate Obama more than they love this country!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

48. really. I will never forget the day it was obvious Bush and Cheney lied us into a war. I was

absolutely positive that there was no way in hell he would be reelected.

[silvershadow]

51. Aint that the truth!

[Rozlee]

47. That's certainly true.

It was a stroke of genius when the corporate establishment married into the social conservative movement. Those religious conservatives will shrug off Mitt's tax evasions saying that he earned his money and the government doesn't have any right to it. I've heard Rethugs earning poverty wages, deluding themselves that they're middle class, going on about how the government is taking all their hard-earned taxes to give to loafers while they're still getting the earned income credit and other government programs. The cognitive dissonance totally escapes them. One woman once told me about what a great provider her husband was. He was on disability SS. The corporate GOP has taught these rubes that government is bad and that it's preying on everyone--especially them. You can see it in the old pensioners holding up signs saying: KEEP YOUR GOVERNMENT HANDS OFF MY MEDICARE. They'll defend Romney and his tax evasions. He deserves his hard earned money.

[KharmaTrain]

55. They're Ready To Accept Even Less...

I just dealt with a Paulbot who believes all government is waste and evil (he kept spelling it waist...I didn't have the heart to play grammar cop) and how corporate welfare and greed isn't a problem. I asked him if he paid taxes last year and a general percentage of his income. He said he paid about 25%...and the only deduction he has is his little house that's seen its value plummet over the past 4 years while his mortgage payments have more than doubled. And he thinks government is the problem? I asked him what he thought of someone who earned more paying less...and, amazingly, he believe that the rich "earn" and are "entitled" to paying less. Of course I asked him why those "job creators" hadn't created jobs during the boooosh years or what about running two wars for corporate profit on the credit card that led to today's defecit and you could hear a forest of crickets. As I say, there's a portion of this country truly stuck on stupid.

Cheers...

[slackmaster]

14. Obvious set-up is obvious

Step 2 will be "Romney releases tax returns, and they show nothing unusual."

[MineralMan]

18. You know, I don't think so this time.

That assumes complete idiocy on the part of Harry Reid and other prominent Democrats. That's an incorrect assumption. The gloves are off on this one.

[slackmaster]

34. I figured out a long time ago that elected officials aren't any smarter than the rest of us

And even intelligent people sometimes make colossal strategic blunders.

I'm pretty sure that someone is making one in this situation. That may be Mitt Romney, but I'm not willing to bet any money on it.

[cbdo2007]

61. They've gotten a month of negative publicity over this SO FAR....

its ridiculous that he's hiding nothing and taking a hit that big.

[randome]

19. The GOP already knows they have lost.

Not only will the Romney disaster materially affect other elections, with all the public support for marriage equality, etc. happening, I think we are on the verge of a new Progressive era to replace the Republican nightmare.

It will soon be Democrats and Republicans versus the Tea Party. People like La Tourette and, yes, Boehner, know the GOP they knew is gone.

[MineralMan]

20. I'm beginning to think you're right, actually.

Even in state legislatures, like mine in Minnesota, the 2010 bunch of GOP freshman legislators have been in panic mode for the past two years, attempting to introduce every possible right-wing piece of legislation they could. They know that their position is temporary, at best. In Minnesota, they bankrupted the state GOP organization to do this. The GOP in Minnesota is in shambles.

They tried a classic bluff move, but aren't holding the cards they need to have. Now, it's time to show their hands, and they're holding crap. I have a good feeling about all of this, and hope like Hell I'm right.

[99Forever]

23. My bet is on stonewall.

This sociopath is so far gone that he can't wrap his mind around the concept that there are other human beings that aren't driven by unbridled greed. He cannot even acknowledge that there are people who's primary focus in life isn't accumulate piles of money with which to crush anyone and everyone that dares to even question him. Compassion doesn't exist in the world of his ilk.

[FSogol]

24. Number 3 will never happen. The Romneys of the world consider themselves above the law.

Number 4 is unlikely also. They'll just get nastier and pour more money in. When Obama wins in a landslide, they'll pretend the election was stolen.

[AllyCat]

35. If this happens, maybe THEN we'll get paper ballots counted in public?

If both sides want it, it would happen. Maybe.

[FSogol]

36. I doubt it. THe GOP would just up their voter suppression efforts in the future. n/t

[Cognitive_Resonance]

25. The term "checkmate" comes to mind. nt

[d_r]

27. there are a lot of people

who will vote for hannibal lecter if the gop sends him out.

[flamingdem]

28. He won't release them and the GOP will go along with it

because they know that Republican voters always support the tribe, no matter how criminal..

[democrat_patriot]

29. 5. The story isn't true? Or he has had all of this time to 're-do' his tax filings...

and hides what he really paid....

[wiggs]

30. I doubt the returns will show anything worse than what we already know about

him, which is pretty bad. That's why his unfavorables are epically low for a nominee. Yet...he is practically tied in polling.

It doesn't matter who the GOP puts up (GWB, for instance)...they've put themselves in position to deceive and manipulate just enough of the voting public so that their candidate, or congressional candidates, will have a showing. Billions of dollars of media investment since the 60's, creation of conservative propagandists masquerading as think tanks, decades of polarization campaigns, willingness to lie and foment hate, etc allows them to create strongly held voter beliefs that trump thinking.

gop voters are willing to look the other way on science, facts, logic, morality, and other normal human traits that most eight-graders are capable of. I'm pretty sure they'll find a way to justify Romney's low taxes and they'll find a new way to hate Obama and they'll renew polarizing attacks on some segment of citizenry (teachers, San Franciscans, muslim americans, Chicagoans, brown people, gay people, immigrants, government workers, union members, liberals, people who have been to Europe, windsurfers, Californians, atheists (always), Ivy-leaguers, public school advocates, etc etc etc).

[mainstreetonce]

31. Question

Is it possible for him to have paid taxes but less than 13%?

There has to be a reason why he won't answer that question.

[valerief]

32. Don't you have ANY faith in voter suppression and super-secret proprietary software voting machines?

What's America coming to these days?

[AllyCat]

33. You forgot about the rigged voting machines.

They didn't bother to vet this guy because they know they have the elections in the bag with those friggin' cheat-machines.

[CanonRay]

38. Or they just hunker down until November and then buy/steal the election.

[onenote]

39. One other possibility: he doesn't release them and the story dies

Its going to take more than an anonymous assertion to keep the story that Romney paid no taxes alive. If nothing more/no one comes forward, I think the story becomes nothing more than a footnote in the overall election calculus.

[DesertRat]

40. I think that's a real possibility n/t

[cyberswede]

42. I think they've been looking to 2016 all along.

I think the RNC has known all along that Romney won't win, and they will have a better chance in 4 years.

[RedSpartan]

43. There is also option 5, that he releases the returns and they show he did pay taxes.

Not what he should have paid, of course, and likely at an offensively low rate due to his offshore accounts, etc. But the story will then be - - at least in the twisted minds of some - - that the story was not true. Not that I think that will really matter in the end (although Fox, Rush, et al, will run with it), but I'm just saying that it's also possible.

[Rose Siding]

73. I think that still plays poorly for him

It calls his judgement into question. Why the stubborn opacity over nothing? It's practically derailed him. Is that how he would govern?

There's also the angle that he caved to critics and that always appears to be weakness.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

44. Something to watch is whether his money stops rolling in.

And according to a DU post another thing to watch is TRMS tonight.

[libodem]

46. They must be scared

Glans Bleck is calling Harry Reid a pedophile rapist, and laughing hysterically.

So uncool.

[jwirr]

49. Are we so sure we want him to quit? I do not like the thought of taking a chance on Ron Paul.

[grantcart]

50. he is not going to releaseanything

They are going to have to rip the nomination from his cold politically dead fingers.

[Stuart G]

52. I hope this is correct...(I never use the word "right" anymore..)

[Roverticus]

53. Breaking News: Politicians waste nearly one trillion on elections

That's Mexico's entire GDP.

[Quantess]

69. But it stimulates the economy.

There is a seasonal campaign industry. Nothing wrong with spending some rich old coot`s money on a campaign.

[DonRedwood]

56. I have the same hopes

[Life Long Dem]

57. Number 4, no matter the tax issue outcome

"hope they can keep the game alive for the future.". Their own game yes. Anything else they could care less about.

[apples and oranges]

58. We'll know if option 4 is true if the big donors

stop donating. So what are the moderates and independents saying about all this? Do they care?

[mountain grammy]

59. It's all local, folks

Robme will probably lose, thank God, but watch those local elections! Get involved and stay involved. That's where the real power is and that's where the GOP has done the worst damage to the working class backbone of our country.

[MineralMan]

64. Absolutely. Legislative races need our help.

We can do this!

[Tarheel_Dem]

60. This is the scenario that excites me most.

"Bottom Line: The GOP is in a lose-lose-lose-lose position. Millions of moderate Republicans become disgusted with the party and either skip the election or vote for the Democratic candidate in multiple races. The Democratic Party wins big."

[MineralMan]

63. Me too! nt

[eridani]

65. Please don't forget Congress

The Repugs can cause an awful lot of damage if they own both houses.

[jmowreader]

67. You forgot option 5

At this point in time, there have GOT to be people in the IRS and the SEC who are thinking, "maybe we need to look at this man's business dealings a little closer."

No one has ever gone from the campaign trail straight to the Big House, but there's a first time for everything.

[B Calm]

68. Don't forget the Ron Paul delegates will be at the

GOP convention. . .

[JCMach1]

70. Romney is going nowhere... he will be the nominee- you forget-- Republicanism is not a reality-based

party.

[quaker bill]

72. Watch where the big money goes (or doesn't)

If the big money shifts to senate and congressional races, then the players have cashed out on Rmoney. If it sticks with him, they still think he has a chance. Note that some will stick with him regardless for the sake of party loyalty, but is the support token or assertive? I think it will be token support, with the major share shifted to damage limitation in the context of his defeat.

My instincts at this point is that Rmoney will not release more tax info. He has already suffered most of the political damage from not doing so, and doing it at this point only opens a new front for additional damage. If his tax info told a favorable story, he would have released it before the damage started accumulating.

The republicans do not have a viable national alternative to running Rmoney at this point. Short of an indictment, they will stick with him and work to limit the damage he does down the ticket. If there is an indictment or something close enough to cause a switch, they will run a placeholder.

The way to read these tea leaves is to watch where the money goes.