*****BREAKING***** Washington Post/ABC A + Rated National Poll Clinton 51 - Deplorable 43

[DemocratSinceBirth]

new WashPost/ABC poll: Clinton +8 over Trump (51-43) in two-way matchup, +5 (46-41) in four-way including Johnson/Stein

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/774816277110018048




http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[vadermike]

1. Wowza

Trump campaign can go suck it Lets kick his ass Now I see why Hillary campaign won't back down

[SCliberal91294]

2. nt

[OhZone]

3. But - but - but -

The trend lines - the coughs - the emails - Ben Gazzi!!!!


OHMY!

[Democrats Ascendant]

6. Try as they might...

Our HRC kicks ass!!!!

[misterhighwasted]

4. Slipping deplorably in the polls..

[LakeArenal]

60. That's what they're gonna say...

Falling in the polls and dying soon..

[vadermike]

5. Well

Now the narrative is going to shift again till the debates Hillary campaign going into high gear not backing down They must see her internals Looks like 3rd party's decreasing People are horrified of the Putin thing too looks like

[Democrats Ascendant]

7. Exactly!

Their own polling is probably the best in the world!

[vadermike]

8. And

If the trumpets go after Hillary tmmrw they fuck themselves people won't put up with it Its sept 11 and u think people getting tired of the shit That goes for Hillarys campaign too which I think she will respect Trump won't be able to help himself I think tmmrw

[elleng]

9. 'National' poll

[pnwmom]

14. And Morning Consult's 50 state poll had results in line with this. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. We have an Electoral College but a candidate winning the popular vote by eight percentage points...

We have an Electoral College but a candidate winning the popular vote by eight percentage points is very likely on his or her way to an Electoral College landslide.

[longship]

38. If she gets over 50%, there's no way Drumpf can win.

It won't even be close.

So sometimes national polls say something meaningful.

That would be true of this one.

[vadermike]

10. National

Is a good indicator She is still up in majority of states she needs not just blue states WAPO is pretty good

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. A Freaking Plus at 538

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[tinrobot]

11. Above 50% is very, very good.

[Loki Liesmith]

12. Way better than I expected.

But I did get the timing right at least.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. My e- buddy figured out the URL

I saw the poll about two hours ago.

[Dem2]

15. The trend is good in this one. +4, +7, +8 over 4 weeks

So, that makes this good news.

[vadermike]

16. And

That's when they threw everything at her emails emails , coughing bullshit this bullshit that and she's ahead and gaining They have no idea that trump is fucking them Good

[bluestateguy]

17. 21.5% are deplorable

though the numbers could vary from state to state.

[geek tragedy]

20. And that is with Dem enthusiasm depressed due to non-stop media

feeding frenzies over emails and the Clinton foundation.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

31. Hillary is firing up enthusiasm by engaging and beginning to own the news cycle with "deplorable".

Trump is being Trumped with his own technique. He's an entertainer and that is all he's got, trying to dominate the news cycle.

[Johnny2X2X]

34. Yes

Last edited Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:33 AM - Edit history (1)

And the difference might be is that Trump just flies off and says something outrageous that hurts him, this struck me as calculated. Not in a bad way, but it would not surprise me if Hillary's team planned the statement, the aftermath, and the non apology that allowed her to stick to her guns and still look congenial. It was well played. Contrasted to Trump's regular outbursts and it was quite thought provoking and well crafted.

[MFM008]

43. That just makes me angry

And more determined to vote.

[still_one]

21. LOL

[bmstee01]

22. I needed to hear this

[calimary]

53. Welcome to DU, bmstee01!

Remember - it's "D" for Donald, AND "D" for Deplorables! See how it all fits? The "D" is the thing! Grades him on the most favorable curve possible and he STILL gets a "D"!

[vadermike]

23. I winder

What the effect of today's brouhaha will have on it I'm glad Hilary's team is not backing down on pointing out racism etc I'm nt not gonna get too worried about it Hillarys team must be confident with their internals

[Johnny2X2X]

24. RCP

Now watch, RCP will take a few days to add this to their average and then they'll remove it as soon as possible after. RCP is right wing and their methods are suspect. The lone poll that showed Trump ahead will spend 3 weeks in their average while this one will spend less than a week. Watch.

[SCliberal91294]

25. The methodology concerns me..

It sample 10% more dems than Republicans. This should cancel out that CNN poll at least

[Johnny2X2X]

26. Sigh

It's a random sample and there are somewhere between 6-15% more Dems than Reps.

[RandySF]

27. There are more Dems than Republicans in the country.

The 50/50 nation is a myth.

[SCliberal91294]

28. I know,

Shouldn't it be more like 34% dems and 28% republicans? Obviously we would still be winning, but maybe subtract 1-2 points.

[Johnny2X2X]

29. Nope

Math doesn't work like that.

[SCliberal91294]

30. True,

Obviously the CNN poll was way off. At a very minimum it should have had Hillary up 2 in LV and up 5 in RV.

[Johnny2X2X]

32. Random

It's called random sampling for a reason. You don't pick a sample and then start throwing away parts of it because it doesn't match what you expected(they do throw out some for other reasons). And pollsters aren't asking people their party affiliation before they start the poll. +10 Dem is what they reported, +10 is within reason. This is the best pollster out there, if someone asked me what the Dem-Rep ratio is in this country I would say a recent ABC-WAPO poll put it at plus 10 Dem and that would likely be the latest and most accurate number we have.

Again, this is just one new data point, just like other polls, but this one means slightly more because it's from the strongest rated pollster. Hillary could reopen a decent lead, but Trump will likely find a way to close the gap again. Hillary has been in the eye of the country a lot more recent though and she's leading a strong campaign. She's a solid favorite to win.

[Persondem]

55. Actually this would be a stratified random sample

"A stratified random sample is a population sample that requires the population to be divided into smaller groups, called 'strata'. "

So if you know your total sample size will be say 500 voters then based on demographics you try to match the sample's characteristics to the population as a whole. So if 34% of voters are D's then you stop taking data on D's when you get 500 x .34 = 170 D's contacted. Rinse and repeat for other categories.

[0rganism]

33. question is, what turnout model(s) did they report

previous poster is correct in that there really are more self-identified Democrats than Republicans. however, this has always been a problem for pollsters using random sampling - sometimes you get too much of a demo, sometimes too little. so in the case of an election poll the results of each demo get weighted to match a turnout model. to a certain extent this immunizes the poll to demographic inconsistency, but it does introduce a few other problems (e.g., accuracy of the turnout model). sometimes pollsters compensate for this by reporting several turnout models to adjust their sample, and sometimes the news picks up on the results of one such model to support a given narrative.

for instance the turnout model for the recent CNN poll that had people here shitting bricks included the highest proportional turnout for white voters in decades. it will be interesting to look at the turnout model used in this poll by way of comparison.

[Johnny2X2X]

35. The polls are biased right

Look at the last two GEs, almost every poll had Romney closer to Obama, basically only 1 or 2 out of a few dozens of polls were slightly biased left, the rest all were biased right.

We'll see this week, but it I suspect we'll see a slight widening again.

[0rganism]

54. there are a couple reasons for that, i think

first, iirc, many polls use a demographic "likely voter" model that overweights voters who align more to GOP these days - white, elderly - and discounts minority votes. so we see Clinton ahead 10 points using a "registered voter" model, and then that lead drops to 5 points using the "likely voter" screens. there's probably a more accurate middle ground with Clinton up 7 or 8 now.

then that "likely voter" model gets reinforced every couple years during the off-year elections where a lot of Democrats somehow decide there's something more worthwhile to do than voting.

and the mass media, bless their stony little hearts, has long since opted for a "horse race" narrative as the most profitable source of advertising revenue so they'll tend to select poll results where the turnout model has been used to boost the major underdog(s). even when multiple turnout models are presented, they'll only report on the one most favorable to the pre-established big picture.

over the last year, the worst effect of this has been a normalization of racism and bigotry through an editorial slant that promotes false equivalency: "see? the two parties are still the same, it's just the other side of a fair coin." when one of the parties has gone full-on sithlord, false equivalency is poison for democracy.

[Democat]

40. It concerns you because Clinton is ahead?

Or some other reason?

[molova]

41. Welcome to DU, concerned one

How do you know that there are not 10% more Dems than Republicans in the nation?

[Loki Liesmith]

46. Party ID is fluid

How many times do people have to say this?

[bluestateguy]

36. And Trump's honest/trustworthy number is 4 points LOWER than Hillary's

Sad!

[ffr]

37. Teflon works both ways I see.

Hillary should make more comments like she did today.

[world wide wally]

39. I would suggest only one per week.

She doesn't need to get into a pissing contest with Dipshit Donald, but a cold slap in the face now and then is just what the doctor ordered.

[murielm99]

42. Deplorable Donald

That is his name now, since he calls her Crooked Hillary. She doesn't need to say anything. We will say it for her.

[napkinz]

50. yep ...

see http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028157558 posted by kpete

[livetohike]

44. K&R

[Vinca]

45. That might stop my hyperventilation . . . for today.

Is it 57 or 58 days to go?

[mcar]

47. I wonder if the reasonable 3rd party supporters will start moving

To Hillary?

[helpisontheway]

48. Go tweet that Donald! Nt

[riversedge]

49. Clinton net advantage over Trump on issues: economy +4, terrorism +3, immigration +2, taxes +9, trad

TWEETS
John Harwood Verified account
?@JohnJHarwood

Post/ABC Poll, Clinton net advantage over Trump on issues: economy +4, terrorism +3, immigration +2, taxes +9, trade +16

7:47 AM - 11 Sep 2016
48 retweets 68 likes


Reply to @JohnJHarwood


VetsForObama ?@VetsForObama 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Shorter version: @HillaryClinton is better at everything related to being President
0 retweets 2 likes

Ken Buddha ?@jwellingtonpeev 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Poll: Clinton, Trump tied in 4 battleground states http://politi.co/2cAV0hU | Getty
0 retweets 1 like
ESQUELETO ?@ES_QUEL_ETO_ 1h1 hour ago

. @JohnJHarwood Thanks for pointing out that this poll is faulty. It's clear by those results this poll is completely wrong.Great reporting!
0 retweets 0 likes
Gadiri Diallo ?@gadiri28 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Trade +16? Impossible...take this shady poll and dump it in the trash where it belongs!
0 retweets 0 likes
Macro Insight Group ?@macroinsightgrp 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Trump doing a better job lately of making this a referendum about HRC, not himself.
0 retweets 0 likes
BS400 ?@blacksmith400 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood In my white/educated neighborhood folks have started to put up Trump/Pence yard signs. I would say 5% reluctant to say.
0 retweets 0 likes

[workinclasszero]

51. Tuck Frump!!!!!

America finds orange Hitler deplorable!

[Uponthegears]

52. Oh dear

and I so wanted to spend today on some serious hand-wringing.

Thanks for ruining everything.

(Actually, just thanks . . . even though I imagine there are some who really will be disappointed).

[TonyPDX]

56. And even THESE numbers are closer than they'll be in November!

[alfredo]

58. As the election nears, third party candidates numbers soften.

[lonestarnot]

57. In a fucking landslide! Take that deplorable et al

[bucolic_frolic]

59. Hillary may have tagged him for the Ages

The Old Pretender
Old Hickory
Tippecanoe and Tyler Too
Old Kinderhook (Martin van Buren, and the origin of the term OK)
Tricky Dicky

How about

Old Deplorable?

[Beartracks]

61. Why the frack is it only 8 points??

Is that solid? Comfortable?

I'd rather see it be more like 15-20!

Honestly, how do Trump supporters sleep at night? What fantasies must they tell themselves?

====================

[catbyte]

62. Man, Deplorable just can't get above 45% for love or money. Awwwwwwww

Little Donny haz a sad. Especially after tape of his despicable comments on 9/11 were aired. Even in the middle of a national crisis, Don the Con managed to make it all about him.

[shenmue]

63. Yes

[SusanCalvin]

64. "Deplorable"