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reggieandlee's JournalBTRTN Iowa Caucuses Prediction: Bernie with a Solid Win, Biden Comfortably in Second
Born to Run the Numbers provides its prediction of the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-iowa-caucuses-prediction-bernie.html
Excerpts: "Caucuses are more difficult to predict than primaries, because that time-consuming voting process demands much more of voters than a normal primary, and thus voter turnout is quite low. It is difficult to discern the impact of this degree of commitment in polling – it’s hard to tell who is actually going to show up and stay. And the two-stage process adds its own unpredictable dynamic. Plus, relative to past Iowa caucuses, predictors like BTRTN do not have the benefit of a final Des Moines Register poll, typically the last of the cycle. Nevertheless, we at BTRTN have done well in the past. We correctly predicted the Clinton win in 2016 as well as Ted Cruz’s victory over Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the GOP caucus. Both were extraordinarily close...
"So we venture forth again. Polling of late shows that Bernie Sanders has achieved some level of separation in the last few days from Joe Biden, and has some modest momentum. He also has a better “ground game” than Biden. Biden has been steady in January at about the 20% level, and is behind Sanders, while Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren are trailing Biden. Amy Klobuchar has been on the rise, but despite reaching double digits for the first time ever in Iowa in some polls, she remains in fifth place, and, importantly, below the 15% threshold. She will be zeroed out in a number of precincts, perhaps in a majority...
"The official Born To Run The Numbers prediction for the Democratic Iowa caucus is a solid win for Bernie Sanders, with Joe Biden finishing comfortably in second. Our prediction for the final vote is as follows..."
BTRTN: No Guardrails, No Restraint...No John McCain, No John Bolton
Born To Run The Numbers' "month in review" for January, 2020, clearly the most consequential and calamitous in Trump's Presidency:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-no-guardrails-no-restraintno-john.html
Excerpts: "At the beginning of the month, with Nancy Pelosi executing her “not quite yet” mode of withholding the articles of impeachment, attention shifted to the volatile Middle East. Trump ordered the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani of Iran in retaliation for an attack, selecting the most aggressive option on the table, with flimsy and inconsistent justification, resulting in further destabilization in the smoldering Middle East. With potentially far-reaching unintended consequences mounting daily, it was clear that Trump’s entire Iranian strategy was literally blowing up in his face.
"Pelosi’s gambit failed to influence McConnell’s trial rules, but succeeded in spotlighting the issue of what constituted a 'fair trial,' and the witness controversy became the central drama. More revelations cemented the storyline, featuring Lev Parnas and culminating with The New York Times’ story that John Bolton confirmed that Trump had told Bolton directly that the release of military aid was completely dependent on a Ukraine President Zelensky announcement of Biden/Burisma/Hilary Clinton server investigations. The Senate trial featured a highly effective, just-the-facts-and-logic story, wrapped in impassioned pleas to GOP Senators led by the House Manager Adam Schiff to abide by the Constitution, protect separation of powers, and remove Trump from office. Republicans filled their airtime with the kitchen sink -- even the incredible defense that if Trump felt his reelection was in the national interest, then anything to achieve that aim was fair.The month culminated with the drama of whether the Senate would call John Bolton as a witness, echoing the tension of the Obamacare votes that hinged on a small set of moderate Republicans.. But Lamar Alexander and Lisa Murkowsky opted for no witnesses, setting the stage for the acquittal for Trump to open February, ending the sham of a trial..."
BTRTN: No Guardrails, No Restraint...No John McCain, No John Bolton
Born To Run The Numbers' "month in review" for January, 2020, clearly the most consequential and calamitous in Trump's Presidency:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-no-guardrails-no-restraintno-john.html
Excerpts: "At the beginning of the month, with Nancy Pelosi executing her “not quite yet” mode of withholding the articles of impeachment, attention shifted to the volatile Middle East. Trump ordered the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani of Iran in retaliation for an attack, selecting the most aggressive option on the table, with flimsy and inconsistent justification, resulting in further destabilization in the smoldering Middle East. With potentially far-reaching unintended consequences mounting daily, it was clear that Trump’s entire Iranian strategy was literally blowing up in his face.
"Pelosi’s gambit failed to influence McConnell’s trial rules, but succeeded in spotlighting the issue of what constituted a 'fair trial,' and the witness controversy became the central drama. More revelations cemented the storyline, featuring Lev Parnas and culminating with The New York Times’ story that John Bolton confirmed that Trump had told Bolton directly that the release of military aid was completely dependent on a Ukraine President Zelensky announcement of Biden/Burisma/Hilary Clinton server investigations. The Senate trial featured a highly effective, just-the-facts-and-logic story, wrapped in impassioned pleas to GOP Senators led by the House Manager Adam Schiff to abide by the Constitution, protect separation of powers, and remove Trump from office. Republicans filled their airtime with the kitchen sink -- even the incredible defense that if Trump felt his reelection was in the national interest, then anything to achieve that aim was fair.The month culminated with the drama of whether the Senate would call John Bolton as a witness, echoing the tension of the Obamacare votes that hinged on a small set of moderate Republicans.. But Lamar Alexander and Lisa Murkowsky opted for no witnesses, setting the stage for the acquittal for Trump to open February, ending the sham of a trial..."
BTRTN: "McConnellism"... Power, Party, and the Death of Good Faith
Born To Run The Numbers provides its view on the deaf Republican ears and blind Republican eyes at the Senate impeachment trial:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-mcconnellism-power-party-and.html
Excerpts: "It is a downward spiral of circular logic: Republicans want to clear Donald Trump of abuse of power by essentially acknowledging that he successfully obstructed Congress by refusing to allow witnesses to testify, so there are no direct witnesses to his abuse of power. But, uh, he also isn't guilty of obstructing Congress. Go figure...
"Is what we are witnessing merely the latest chapter in history of people in power scheming and bending the rules to preserve their power? Is it just a torqued-up, steroids-era, 21st century version of 'the ends justify the means?' Or are we witnessing something entirely new… something that would make Machiavelli himself shudder in awe?...
"What, exactly, is McConnellism? (1) the belief that loyalty to party – and maintaining the party’s power -- is more important than loyalty to country. (2) the belief that time is better spent destroying the opposition party and denying it any accomplishments than to actually accomplish anything. (3) It is a rarified hyper-hypocrisy that shamelessly applies different standards to the actions of one party than to one’s own, and stubbornly refuses to apply the same standards to comparable actions taken by both parties. (4) It is a parasite that lives and thrives by sucking off the lies of others, be it Fox News or the President of the United States...
"The signature philosophy of McConnellism was laid down in Barack Obama’s first term, when Mitch McConnell announced his intent and purpose as Senate Majority Leader: 'The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.' The particular aorta that Mitch McConnell severed the day he uttered those words cut the flow of blood to a particularly American notion of public conduct… to act in good faith..."
BTRTN: "McConnellism"... Power, Party, and the Death of Good Faith
Born To Run The Numbers provides its view on the deaf Republican ears and blind Republican eyes at the Senate impeachment trial:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-mcconnellism-power-party-and.html
Excerpts: "It is a downward spiral of circular logic: Republicans want to clear Donald Trump of abuse of power by essentially acknowledging that he successfully obstructed Congress by refusing to allow witnesses to testify, so there are no direct witnesses to his abuse of power. But, uh, he also isn't guilty of obstructing Congress. Go figure...
"Is what we are witnessing merely the latest chapter in history of people in power scheming and bending the rules to preserve their power? Is it just a torqued-up, steroids-era, 21st century version of 'the ends justify the means?' Or are we witnessing something entirely new… something that would make Machiavelli himself shudder in awe?...
"What, exactly, is McConnellism? (1) the belief that loyalty to party – and maintaining the party’s power -- is more important than loyalty to country. (2) the belief that time is better spent destroying the opposition party and denying it any accomplishments than to actually accomplish anything. (3) It is a rarified hyper-hypocrisy that shamelessly applies different standards to the actions of one party than to one’s own, and stubbornly refuses to apply the same standards to comparable actions taken by both parties. (4) It is a parasite that lives and thrives by sucking off the lies of others, be it Fox News or the President of the United States...
"The signature philosophy of McConnellism was laid down in Barack Obama’s first term, when Mitch McConnell announced his intent and purpose as Senate Majority Leader: 'The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.' The particular aorta that Mitch McConnell severed the day he uttered those words cut the flow of blood to a particularly American notion of public conduct… to act in good faith..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: Wide, Wide Open...Four Way Tie in Iowa with Billionaires Ready Down the Road
Born To Run The Numbers with their brand new (just posted this morning) summary of the status of the 2020 Presidential campaign race, with detailed analysis and all the latest polls both nationally and in the early primary states.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-2020-vision-wide-wide-openfour.html
Excerpts:"The Iowa caucuses are, for all intents and purposes, a four-way dead heat. With just three weeks to go, Elizabeth Warren slightly lags behind Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, who are in a virtual tie for the lead. The Democratic field narrowed to 12, and with the latest departures – Cory Booker, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson – gone went the diversity that had characterized the Democratic field of nominees (if never the leaderboard)...
"The debate on Tuesday night in Des Moines was widely viewed as a non-event, a rather cautious affair given the stakes, with none of the expected fireworks materializing, especially between Sanders and Warren (though there were some sharp words on stage after the debate ended)...
"In general, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are on an upward swing... Biden’s jump back into winning contention in Iowa raises the possibility that if he performs well there and in New Hampshire, he could take a commanding lead heading into better terrain for him: Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday. Sanders won the fourth quarter money stakes, and is built to last, having totally re-invigorated his campaign, against all odds, after his heart attack...
"But watch out for the billionaires…Tom Steyer is suddenly polling well in both Nevada and South Carolina, and Mike Bloomberg is obliterating the airwaves in Super Tuesday states with more than $200 million in ad spending to date, about three-quarters of what the rest of the field has spent (mostly by Steyer at about $140 million)...
BTRTN: Warren Had the TV Moment, but the Debate's Real Winner May Have Been Bloomberg
Born To Run The Numbers provides its analysis of last night's Democratic debate:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-warren-had-tv-moment-but-debates.html
Excerpts: "Elizabeth Warren clearly had the most impactful soundbyte of last night’s debate, but it did not appear than any of the six candidates sustained a decisive, break-out performance for the full evening. So if last night amounted to a draw in which few minds were changed, it is entirely possible that the Iowa caucuses themselves will be a very close affair with no candidate emerging with a turbo-charge of momentum. If that is indeed true, then the real beneficiary of last night’s debate may have been the guy who decided to stand on the sidelines...
"It’s likely that Elizabeth Warren picked up some ground on Bernie Sanders in their zero-sum contest to lead the progressive wing of the party. And all that does is put the two them back at even with each other. It is the worst case scenario for the progressives: Sanders and Warren remain deadlocked, preventing either from leveraging the full power of the progressive wing. It is mutually assured destruction.
"In the centrist lane, Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar each did enough to hold their own supporters, but no one seemed to be taking the risks you need to take to break out...
"The bottom line: there simply will not be much movement in the polls based on this debate. And which campaign is going to benefit the most from that? Somewhere in a high rise in Manhattan, Michael Bloomberg was watching this debate, seeing no one break out from the pack. And if indeed no candidate breaks out decisively in these early races, it will have the effect of diminishing the entire field. The conclusion will not be that the five major candidates are equally good, it will be that none of them is good enough...
And who stands to gain in that scenario?"
BTRTN: Forget "Wag the Dog." "Fail Safe" is the Telling Movie Parable for Trump's Iran Gamble
Born To Run The Numbers thinks that the pundits who invoke "Wag The Dog" to criticize Trump's decision to assassinate Soleimani are worried about the wrong movie. 1964's nuclear terror "Fail Safe" provides the more terrifying analogy:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-forget-wag-dog-fail-safe-is.html
Excerpts: "Donald Trump threw the Middle East and, by extension, the world, into an incredibly dangerous moment when for 72 hours, the stability of the region and the world became the responsibility of a rogue, economically-ostracized state that sponsors terrorism. He created the circumstances in which the fate of the Middle East was contingent on Iran being the grown-up in the room.
"Ordering the assassination of Soleimani was the equivalent of the sending bombers toward Moscow in 'Fail Safe.' Once the bombers were en route, the ability to calmly manage a chaotic, rapidly unfolding, unpredictable situation is radically reduced. Intentionally triggering such chaos dramatically increases the likelihood of misinterpretation, mistrust, and pre-emptive aggression...
"My second point: the long-term implications of this action are far from understood...Here are the likely bets
1)Tehran will race to build nuclear bombs, (2) Iran will will now be united in its hatred of the United States, (3) the murder of Soleimani will only embolden Iran to continue his legacy of proxy wars and state-sponsored terrorism. Hey, we can hope I am wrong. Maybe Iranians will see a whole different way to retaliate. Maybe instead of overtly fighting Trump, they will realize how easily he can be manipulated into serving their goals, and follow the model of Kim Jong-un… who has been sucking up to Trump for television cameras as he buys time to fully ramp up a world-class nuclear weapons arsenal. Maybe Iran will contact Trump and offer to help him by interfering on his behalf in the 2020 elections. Iranians may realize – like Putin before them – that it is far easier to get what you want out of Trump if you’ve got kompromat on him..."
BTRTN: Forget "Wag the Dog." "Fail Safe" is the Telling Movie Parable for Trump's Iran Gamble
Born To Run The Numbers thinks that the pundits who invoke "Wag The Dog" to criticize Trump's decision to assassinate Soleimani are worried about the wrong movie. 1964's nuclear terror "Fail Safe" provides the more terrifying analogy:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-forget-wag-dog-fail-safe-is.html
Excerpts: "Donald Trump threw the Middle East and, by extension, the world, into an incredibly dangerous moment when for 72 hours, the stability of the region and the world became the responsibility of a rogue, economically-ostracized state that sponsors terrorism. He created the circumstances in which the fate of the Middle East was contingent on Iran being the grown-up in the room.
"Ordering the assassination of Soleimani was the equivalent of the sending bombers toward Moscow in 'Fail Safe.' Once the bombers were en route, the ability to calmly manage a chaotic, rapidly unfolding, unpredictable situation is radically reduced. Intentionally triggering such chaos dramatically increases the likelihood of misinterpretation, mistrust, and pre-emptive aggression...
"My second point: the long-term implications of this action are far from understood...Here are the likely bets 1)Tehran will race to build nuclear bombs, (2) Iran will will now be united in its hatred of the United States, (3) the murder of Soleimani will only embolden Iran to continue his legacy of proxy wars and state-sponsored terrorism. Hey, we can hope I am wrong. Maybe Iranians will see a whole different way to retaliate. Maybe instead of overtly fighting Trump, they will realize how easily he can be manipulated into serving their goals, and follow the model of Kim Jong-un… who has been sucking up to Trump for television cameras as he buys time to fully ramp up a world-class nuclear weapons arsenal. Maybe Iran will contact Trump and offer to help him by interfering on his behalf in the 2020 elections. Iranians may realize – like Putin before them – that it is far easier to get what you want out of Trump if you’ve got kompromat on him..."
BTRTN: What You Can Do TODAY to Help Defeat Trump in November
Born To Run The Numbers provides readers concrete actions that can be undertaken today to help defeat Donald Trump in November:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-what-you-can-do-today-to-help.html
Excerpts:
"This is the game plan that Democrats across the country must follow to consign Donald Trump to the junk heap of history this coming November 3rd:
1) Find the best candidate, the one most likely to defeat Trump in the general election
2) Unify behind the eventual nominee, whoever that is
3) Work for that nominee -- as passionately as if the nominee had been your first choice candidate – to get out the vote
4) Contribute financially to the nominee’s campaign if you can
5) Vote!!!
But we can all do something today that will benefit the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is. And that is: you can help register Democratic voters in swing states. In such an emotional election, when most minds are made up along partisan lines, the absolute key is turnout: getting out the vote. And that means registering every possible Democratic voter we can."Swing Left" offers an excellent platform for registering voters..."
(Born to Run the Numbers goes on to provide specific direction on how to sign up with "Swing Left" and get to work...)
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