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Sloumeau

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Member since: Thu Dec 1, 2016, 03:01 PM
Number of posts: 205

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Lots of people are thinking about Iowa and New Hampshire.

What is interesting is, Joe Biden is just not that worried about Iowa and New Hampshire. Why Is That?

First of all, he knows that he could lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and still win the Democratic Nomination. How does he know this? Well, let's look at a little graphic chart from an NPR.org article entitled, "How Predictive Are Iowa And New Hampshire?":

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire

Here's the graphic chart from that article:

https://ibb.co/JqB9cT6

From the blue section of the chart, where the Democrats are, one can see that in 1992 Bill Clinton won neither Iowa or New Hampshire, but Bill Clinton did go on to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

So, how did Bill Clinton end up winning the Democratic Nomination? Bill Clinton did it the same way Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama did it. They all won the South. You see, Democratic Candidates who are strong in the South are basically strong for one reason--they have strong support among African Americans. African Americans, being just as smart as Caucasians, look for a candidate who has a track record of looking out for them. They are powerful enough in the Democratic Party to pick winners and losers, and they are hard-working and dedicated enough to make sure that he or she rises to the top.

Joe Biden has been averaging polling in first place nationally for a long time, as one can see from the RealClearPolitics.com 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination page here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

However, Biden has not been at the top of the polls in Iowa or New Hampshire lately. Why is that? It's because a lot of his support is in other parts of the country, like the South.

Some candidates are pretty strong with Caucasians but don't do so well with African Americans. Some of them will do well in Iowa or New Hampshire. However, some of those same people may not do so well in the South. If things continue as they have been in the past, the person who wins the South will win the nomination. I'm betting that that person will be Joe Biden, and I'm betting that he will win the Democratic Nomination even if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire. I've got my fingers crossed.

Biden Still Has The Best Average Of The RCP 2020 Democratic Nomination Polls

From the RealClearPolitics.com website in the 2020 Democratic Nomination Polls section where they average the polls [link:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html|] , we get the following image:

https://ibb.co/tPZKLvq

I'm still trying to learn how to embed pictures on DU.

Biden is still in good shape!

Kelly beats Kobach 51% to 41%

Source: MSNBC

Just now. according to MSNBC for Kansas Governorship:
Kelly total: 334,101
Kobach total: 268,830

Read more: television source
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