https://fivethirtyeight.com/
Not because there isn't hope for Democrats, but because the elections shouldn't be remotely this close.
They are giving Stacey Abrams only a 9% chance of defeating Kemp, in part because, as cited in Bloomberg:
One-third of Black men registered in Georgia haven’t voted in the past several elections, with pollsters saying these disaffected voters just don’t think the outcome will improve their lives. In recent years, Black men also have shown they’re more willing to vote Republican, in Georgia and nationally. About 1 in 5 Black men voted for Donald Trump in 2020, up from 2016.
Together, these two groups -- Black men who typically don’t vote and those who have crossed party lines -- could determine the outcome in November. The key is figuring out the reasons for their choices and persuading them to change their minds.
“What they’re doing is consciously choosing to stay away from elections,” said W. Mondale Robinson, who founded the Black Male Voter Project in 2015, adding that little progress has been made in addressing many of the issues affecting the lives of Black men.
“It’s not a problem created by Stacey Abrams. It’s not a political phenomenon,” Robinson said. “We haven’t seen a decrease in the number of Black men killed by police. Black men are still unemployed at twice the rate of others, and those who are arrested and can’t pay cash bails sit in jail even though they haven’t been proven guilty. This is a conscious choice from people who do not see politics addressing their issues.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/black-men-are-showing-tepid-enthusiasm-for-stacey-abrams-in-georgia-race
I just . . . I really canNOT wrap my head around it. Surely Donald Trump did not get 20% of the black male vote. Seriously? Are you fucking kidding me? I mean, I know we are not a social or political monolith, but what . . . the . . . actual . . . fuck.
EDITING to ADD: Whew! Reality of Trump’s share of the black male vote was 12%, not 20%. Still 12% too high, but . . . whew!
“Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. (His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.)
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/07/06/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/
I already voted, and I do still have hope that America will find its moral fiber, but if 538 is anywhere near accurate, I may need to be heavily medicated on election night.