https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Not because there isn't hope for Democrats, but because the elections shouldn't be remotely this close.

They are giving Stacey Abrams only a 9% chance of defeating Kemp, in part because, as cited in Bloomberg:

One-third of Black men registered in Georgia haven’t voted in the past several elections, with pollsters saying these disaffected voters just don’t think the outcome will improve their lives. In recent years, Black men also have shown they’re more willing to vote Republican, in Georgia and nationally. About 1 in 5 Black men voted for Donald Trump in 2020, up from 2016.

Together, these two groups -- Black men who typically don’t vote and those who have crossed party lines -- could determine the outcome in November. The key is figuring out the reasons for their choices and persuading them to change their minds.

“What they’re doing is consciously choosing to stay away from elections,” said W. Mondale Robinson, who founded the Black Male Voter Project in 2015, adding that little progress has been made in addressing many of the issues affecting the lives of Black men.

“It’s not a problem created by Stacey Abrams. It’s not a political phenomenon,” Robinson said. “We haven’t seen a decrease in the number of Black men killed by police. Black men are still unemployed at twice the rate of others, and those who are arrested and can’t pay cash bails sit in jail even though they haven’t been proven guilty. This is a conscious choice from people who do not see politics addressing their issues.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/black-men-are-showing-tepid-enthusiasm-for-stacey-abrams-in-georgia-race

I just . . . I really canNOT wrap my head around it. Surely Donald Trump did not get 20% of the black male vote. Seriously? Are you fucking kidding me? I mean, I know we are not a social or political monolith, but what . . . the . . . actual . . . fuck.

EDITING to ADD: Whew! Reality of Trump’s share of the black male vote was 12%, not 20%. Still 12% too high, but . . . whew!

“Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. (His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.) https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/07/06/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/

I already voted, and I do still have hope that America will find its moral fiber, but if 538 is anywhere near accurate, I may need to be heavily medicated on election night.

Sure, some of the "undecided" folks are just attention seekers trying to disguise themselves as critical thinkers, but given the state of America's political environment with Republicans labeling anything moderate as "wokeism," I just assume that when someone says they are "undecided" or "independent," they will be voting republican or not voting at all.

Same-same when someone starts spouting "both sides" bullsh*t.

The workers say it better than I could.

https://twitter.com/QasimRashid/status/1464651767132610566?s=20

I received this notice from my bank this morning:

“New USPS service standards may add delivery time for important documents and payments.

Have you heard?

The United States Postal Service (USPS) has revised its service standards for certain First-Class Mail items, adding one to two additional days for mail traveling longer distances. These changes take place beginning October 1.

Please keep this in mind for anything we send to you, or that you may send to us, via mail. This may include monthly statements and payments, to name a few.“

The Republican Party is essentially a wrecking ball brazenly destroying our government.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/southeast/miami-packed-with-partiers-ahead-of-new-years-eve/

The video is of Miami partying hard. Mostly maskless, of course. The Uber driver working though frightened and feeling powerless when people refuse to wear masks in HER car? That's America writ large.

"Covid-19 is like gravity. You don't have to believe in it. It doesn't require faith, it's immune to prayer, and it doesn't discriminate. At this point, if people choose to deny gravity and jump off buildings while calling other people sheep, the best the rest of us can do is keep our distance so they don't fall on us." Anonymous Unknown

https://twitter.com/MattNavarra/status/1338454049541287937?s=20

Yipee! They are back up!

I’m sure this had nothing to do with Russia’s recent cyber warfare against the U.S. as Trump sucks Putin’s thumb.

Just yesterday I was on the phone with someone in Louisiana telling me she rarely sees anyone wearing a mask. Young adults the world over generally feel invincible, but the long term health effects of Covid-19 are a big price to pay.

Editing to add that the sense of taste or smell doesn’t always return.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-patients-lose-senses-of-taste-smelland-havent-gotten-them-back-11591007522

Well, I hope it was only one. She voted Biden for President, but apparently someone put a bug in her ear about the need for "checks and balances" in government, so (and yes, I damned near threw up) she voted for a republican John Cornyn for Senator.

Ironically, she was ranting about how evil republicans are after I mentioned how Biden would need the Senate to make any real headway, so I almost missed it when she said something about "checks and balances." Huh?, I managed to say after my heart dropped into my lower intestine. "You got to have checks and balances," she said. A moment or two passed before I remembered to breathe. I asked "How many republicans did you vote for, mom?" She said "Well . . ." When my mom says "well," in that manner, it's her way of saying she's out of steam and can't really explain herself. She's over 70 and got an 8th grade education in rural Texas back when Texas was loathe to spend resources on educating black people.

I couldn't be mad at mom, but I could be angry with myself. I had preached to my cousins about the importance of voting down ballot and I spoke to my uncles and aunts, but I thought mom was a sure fire straight ticked Democrat.

"Just one," she said. "Maybe two, I think."
"That's how they hurt Obama, mom. Republicans fought tooth and nail when they were in the minority in the Senate, and they essentially shut progress down when they got the majority."
My words sounded kinda hollow at that point. The election was over, and I kept telling myself it was only one vote. I kept thinking, though. If "they" convinced my mom and her circle of friends and relatives, that's more than just a few votes.

I remember hearing McConnell or Graham or one of the other evil f*cks talking about checks and balances a while back, and I thought little of it. They were simply switching gears to limit republican cross-over votes. Silly me didn't consider that it would be an effective way of getting Democrats to cross-over.

Live. Learn. Fight.

Peace

Given that MAGAvangelicals are convinced that our election system has been corrupted by an obese Venezuelan living in his grandmother's basement, maybe this is the perfect time to push for nationwide election reform with primary goals of election security ("hack-proof" systems) and election integrity (paper ballots?). I'd go one further and tie significant federal funding to state compliance with security measures because they are a matter of national security.