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Amishman

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Member since: Wed Nov 12, 2014, 12:35 PM
Number of posts: 2,675

About Me

A blue dot in the red sea of PA\'s amish country.

Journal Archives

two looters dead in Philly last night

One shot attempting to loot a gun shop by the store owner (occurred inside the store)
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/south-philly-gun-shop-owner-shoots-kills-looter-police-say/2416373/

There was a string of ATM bombings last night in Philly as well
https://6abc.com/several-atms-vandalized-overnight-in-philly/6226433/

It appears the bomber messed up eventually and fatally blew himself up
https://www.fox29.com/news/police-man-24-dies-in-attempted-atm-explosion
(excuse the Fox article for the last one, only source I could find)

Sounds like some more serious thieves are using this unrest as cover. The group robbing the gunshop were armed and organized, and the ATM bomber is also not your common rioter.

The wheels seem to be coming off the quarantine in PA

Beaver county is allowing businesses to open in defiance of the stay at home order. Some other counties are making noise about following their example. Several county DA offices say they will not pursue charges against businesses violating the governor's orders.

Several county sheriff's departments say they won't take action against businesses over the quarantine.

Police are increasingly unwilling to cite for violations, endlessly just issuing verbal warnings or ignoring it completely.

Again, this all in purple or red parts of the state, I don't know if this is true in Philly/Pittsburgh.

Anyone else seeing growing defiance? I'm not talking about a handful of right-wing nut jobs protesting, I'm talking about in the mainstream.

At the beginning of April I posted repeatedly that we were 4 weeks or so from a social breaking point, and now it does seem to be beginning

Why is the far right so obsessed with the idea of our switching nominees?

I'm seeing this all over, it's bad enough that my wife asked me about it as her right-winger relatives are bloviating about it and flooding her Facebook feed.

Why do they think we are going to swap in someone who wasn't even running? When Bernie was the frontrunner, it was talk of a convention swap. Now it's claiming that Biden will drop out and the 'real' DNC pick will come forward.

They seem to be fixated on Hillary, Michelle Obama, or now Gov Cuomo being inserted.

I don't get it. I just don't. Is it because they know they cannot beat Joe?

How much longer can we keep things shut down?

I'm starting to see stay at home orders extended into May, and new infections do not seem to be declining.

Some businesses are putting together contingency plans for this running well into summer or fall. I don't think we can extend the lockdowns that far without economic collapse that no amount of stimulus will resolve.

I am starting to think the only way to get out of this is about six more weeks of stay at home. During that time we need more improvised hospitals, mass production of vents and protective equipment, crash training of additional medical staff, large scale coordinated trials of every proposed vaccine or treatment, public training on proper use of masks and gloves.

Then we open back up, with masks mandated in public.

The problem is the 'moon program' needed in the remaining shutdown needs a strong hand to do it, and we have a citrus fruit for a president.

Am I missing something? The way I see it the state lockdowns are outside Trump's control

They were instituted at the state and local level, and at a glance I can't find anything that would allow him to overrule them.

He can have all the tantrums he wants, but the states hardest hit have D governors, who will gleefully tell him to fuck off. major metro areas across the country have Democratic mayors, almost without exception

He is powerless on this matter.

9-0 SCOTUS ruling against asset forfeiture, this is a big deal

Just came out an hour ago

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/430742-supreme-court-clamps-down-on-excessive-fines-by-states

This is a really big deal as it is the first time the 8th amendment has been applied to limit penalties and forfeiture at the state / local level. It opens the door wide to additional challenges against unreasonable fines and the common practice of seizing unrelated assets from suspects.

The case in question involved an individual with a drug related offense with a maximum fine of 10k. He had purchased a car with 40k of money from a life insurance policy paid out when his father died. His car was seized under the pretense that it had been used to transport drugs.

Bump stock ban is finalized, banned from sale and 90 days to surrender

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/11/28/politics/final-bump-stock-ban/index.html

My worry is that this too good, especially from Trump.

By executive order and with no compensation offered, I am wondering if this is intentional to try and set up a quick Supreme Court ruling overturn a lot of existing laws now that they have their right wing majority firmly in place on the SCOTUS.

Anyone have updates on where Tester's race stands?

Is the 16% outstanding absentee votes or just precincts which couldn't report last night for some reason?

If it's the latter, I think Tester survives easily. If it's the former I'll be nervous as absentee usually older voters who trend more conservative

Can't seem to find any info on when we might know this one

please ignore 538, their model is spazzing. Try the NYT

The NYT site is easy to use and their predictor factors in where votes are outstanding, not just what is in so far

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

they don't seem to have enough results for the latter to be running yet

Montana Senate just got tighter, libertarian candidate withdraws and endorses Republican

https://www.yahoo.com/news/libertarian-backs-republican-tight-montana-senate-race-180339933--election.html

Nate Silver's adjusted lead on the last to polls were 4 and 6 percent with a tightening trend. This will probably give Rosendale an extra 1-2%
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