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Algernon Moncrieff

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Member since: Sat Apr 19, 2014, 11:49 PM
Number of posts: 5,047

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A friend just reported long, slow lines in Nevada

Probably a good sign from a turnout perspective.

On edit: I have gotten this far in life without being able to read time stamps on my social media. Please feel free to "OK Boomer" me at will.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Wed Feb 19, 2020, 11:00 AM (6 replies)

How many candidates do you predict will remain in the primaries after Super Tuesday?

I'm working under the assumption that those in now will stay in until then -- which could very well be incorrect.

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Wed Feb 19, 2020, 08:50 AM (7 replies)

Have any of the Loungers seen Shen Yun?

If so, what did you think? Worth seeing?

They advertise the living heck out of it. It makes the rounds through our area every other year.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:01 AM (16 replies)

If you are still undecided here on DU, why?

Just wondering. No judgment.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Feb 16, 2020, 03:14 PM (14 replies)

Vox: Opinion: Why Medicare for All works for Bernie Sanders -- and nobody else

LINK

Democratic candidates who endorsed Medicare for All did significantly worse than those who did not. The estimated coefficient of -4.6 indicates that support for Medicare for All cost Democratic candidates in these competitive districts almost five points of vote margin — a substantial effect in a close election.

...

Polling data indicates why single-payer might be a liability. At first glance, Medicare-for-all does poll pretty well: 56 percent approval and 41 percent disapproval, according to the most recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey. It could be aided by some misconceptions, though: More than half of people, for example, think they’d be able to keep their health insurance plan under the single-payer system. (Under Sanders’s bill, they would not; most private insurance would be prohibited after the four-year transition period.)

Polling data indicates why single-payer might be a liability. At first glance, Medicare-for-all does poll pretty well: 56 percent approval and 41 percent disapproval, according to the most recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey. It could be aided by some misconceptions, though: More than half of people, for example, think they’d be able to keep their health insurance plan under the single-payer system. (Under Sanders’s bill, they would not; most private insurance would be prohibited after the four-year transition period.)

But public opinion hinges on how you talk about the issue. Support dropped from 56 percent to 37 percent when voters were told the proposal would eliminate private insurance companies or raise taxes for most Americans. (Support correspondingly surged when voters heard the strongest talking points in favor of the proposal: universal coverage and lower health care costs.)

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Fri Feb 14, 2020, 04:33 PM (15 replies)

In 2024, assuming we have free and fair elections, which state should vote first in the Dem Primary?

I realize it's a big assumption at this point.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Feb 13, 2020, 05:58 PM (31 replies)

Let's say Joe Biden's campaign chair calls you to ask you how you'd get the campaign back on track.

What would you say?
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Feb 13, 2020, 05:40 PM (34 replies)

An anecdotal observation about Iowa and Joe

(I'd be curious to hear Omaha Steve's take, as well as any other IA/Quad City DUers)

I live in the Omaha TV market, meaning ads for Western Iowa. I saw very few ads for Joe Biden.

I did not do any studies or formal counts, but I'd say this is the rough order of whose ads I saw most:

Bernie
Steyer
Yang
Mayor Pete (more of that in the past two weeks)
Klobuchar (mostly in the past week)

I can remember seeing Biden ads like 2-3 times in the past six weeks, and maybe twice that for Elizabeth Warren.

I saw billboards and yard signs for Tulsi, and a Farmers for Bernie sign that.

I can't speak to what was shown in Sioux City, Des Moines, or the Quads.

My take was that the Biden campaign chose to deploy resources elsewhere. Maybe a DUer in another part of Iowa saw something different.

I'm neither ready to crown Pete or Bernie, nor ready to write off Biden. I think we have a lot more campaigning and voting to do.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Wed Feb 5, 2020, 01:03 AM (3 replies)

Will this be the end of Iowa going first?

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Tue Feb 4, 2020, 01:11 AM (7 replies)

Good luck to your gal or guy in Iowa.

My guy has virtually no shot. At this point, I'm interested to see who will emerge. I'll also be interested to see if we have a nominee in six weeks, or if the turns into a lengthy slugfest.

The candidate who emerges will be light-years better than the host of The Apprentice.

So good luck to all!
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Mon Feb 3, 2020, 12:29 AM (0 replies)
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