Will the aftershocks in Japan continue? Is there any way to accurately predict that?

[mirror wall]

I'm having a hard time finding info on this so any insight is much appreciated!

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Yes for months to come

[mirror wall]

2. Where can I look for that kind of information?

I have tried searching a few different sources including the NYT, Google News and Science daily. Teach a man to fish, will ya? :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. The USGS has info on quakes

as well as handy maps of them as they happen.

But generally speaking they will have quakes, some of them strong, for a few months as part of the cluster.

They already have had a few large ones as well, 7 and above... as days go by the intensity will go down.

[mirror wall]

7. Thanks, I poked around a bit on their site but am still coming up short with predictions.

Is it just too hard to make specific ones? Do we just go with a general sense of it'll take a few weeks or possibly months to settle down?

I did find a predictions page on that site, but it didn't seem to have much information. Can you recommend some other resource, perhaps a bit more accessible by laypeople?

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. We are not at the point of making an ACTUAL prediction

of when a quakke will come or how... just that these things come in clusters.

On the bright side, they actually had a two minute warning in Tokyo before this one hit... which is a FIRST.

[Baclava]

5. There is no "science" to earthquake prediction

Aftershocks are common, for months or years for the big ones.

The earth moves and we little creatures run away.

[Beaverhausen]

11. years- we had them for years after the Northridge quake

and this one was 3000 times stronger. I feel so bad for these people. Many of these aftershocks are stronger than even most big earthquakes.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

4. Nadin is correct --

they will have 24/7 aftershocks for weeks, even months afterwards. After Loma Prieta we had noticable ones for several weeks. They can be just as scary as the original quakes. Buildings that survived the first quake but were damaged can come down in the aftershocks. Plus they are emotionally draining and leave you on edge..

[malaise]

6. Aftershocks?

There was another earthquake about 40 minutes ago in Western Japan - above 6.

And yes aftershocks will continue in the North east for some time - don't know anything about predicting earthquakes.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

9. No way to truly predict yet --

other than the general historical predictions -- like the San Andreas is due for a blow every 100-150 years or so. Earthquakes are on you before you know it. Fun when they are a 5. and under, scary when you start rockin' the 6s.

[Baclava]

12. 18 aftershocks of 6.0 or greater according to USGS...so far

MAG UTC DATE-TIME/y/m/d h:m:s LAT/deg LON/deg DEPTH/km Region

MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 19:31:56 36.962 138.367 10.3 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 19:24:29 35.770 140.639 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 19:02:59 39.372 142.900 24.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 18:59:15 37.037 138.355 1.0 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 18:44:06 36.858 141.029 25.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 18:17:06 36.218 141.685 25.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 18:11:24 37.118 142.160 13.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 17:50:01 37.648 144.991 25.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 17:32:14 37.137 144.572 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 17:30:48 37.418 141.099 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 17:23:57 36.015 141.888 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 17:17:00 37.111 144.145 26.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 17:12:41 37.564 144.069 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 16:55:53 37.779 143.171 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 16:34:22 39.376 143.405 40.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 16:20:52 36.157 141.877 25.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 16:11:27 39.463 143.577 9.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 16:04:53 39.236 144.320 25.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:55:23 36.626 142.162 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:50:59 37.409 142.217 24.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:46:02 36.022 141.958 19.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 15:42:05 36.066 141.515 15.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 15:32:34 37.216 142.233 25.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 15:19:38 36.233 141.856 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 15:13:15 35.997 141.796 18.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:01:39 39.082 142.383 26.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 14:56:16 35.979 141.367 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 14:54:04 35.919 141.819 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 14:44:08 36.655 140.769 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 14:26:31 37.431 142.254 13.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 14:20:20 37.947 143.183 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 14:10:39 37.575 141.963 25.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 14:00:38 36.151 140.845 30.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 13:55:28 38.039 142.831 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 13:48:38 38.426 143.061 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 13:43:10 38.972 144.209 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 13:34:36 36.249 141.850 35.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 13:31:55 39.152 142.837 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 13:16:50 36.304 141.730 30.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 13:15:45 37.393 141.882 30.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 13:02:43 36.755 141.885 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 12:59:21 36.128 141.768 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 12:54:52 38.502 142.120 36.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 12:49:01 36.158 141.711 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 12:34:22 36.912 143.736 39.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 12:33:19 38.374 142.590 29.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 12:28:45 36.166 141.664 29.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 12:24:37 36.525 141.707 27.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 12:12:53 38.052 142.542 21.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 12:04:16 36.351 142.700 38.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:56:16 36.356 141.504 39.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 11:54:02 36.982 142.535 45.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:46:47 36.034 141.055 47.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:44:28 36.709 142.231 31.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 11:36:39 39.276 142.521 11.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 11:21:02 35.759 140.913 25.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:16:51 36.614 141.894 36.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:13:12 36.451 141.789 18.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:10:58 35.534 141.856 27.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 11:00:51 37.813 141.481 28.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 10:58:06 39.060 142.213 30.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 10:52:08 38.534 143.346 29.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 10:45:46 38.466 143.591 41.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 10:35:36 37.044 141.298 25.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 10:28:44 39.447 143.531 29.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 10:20:27 36.966 142.289 21.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.0 2011/03/11 10:10:35 39.248 142.779 28.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:59:57 36.703 142.207 41.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:47:02 39.685 142.938 29.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:42:22 39.438 142.749 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:37:08 35.877 141.585 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:09:15 37.717 143.267 36.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:04:10 37.299 142.655 30.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:00:20 37.056 141.966 20.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 08:52:26 36.763 141.910 35.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:46:48 37.421 142.453 37.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:40:56 37.465 141.122 38.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 08:31:08 37.428 141.200 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 08:19:24 36.200 142.000 19.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:15:41 37.034 144.612 27.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:12:05 36.606 141.557 19.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:10:31 36.394 140.631 30.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:01:59 37.071 142.734 22.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 07:56:16 37.130 142.305 34.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 07:54:45 37.742 141.565 45.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:42:55 36.406 141.919 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:38:27 39.250 142.783 29.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:28:12 36.802 141.911 24.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:25:33 37.916 144.621 15.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 07:14:59 36.648 141.811 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:13:47 36.051 142.347 28.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:11:00 37.899 142.734 30.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:57:15 35.758 140.992 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:48:47 37.993 142.764 22.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 7.1 2011/03/11 06:25:51 38.106 144.553 19.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.8 2011/03/11 06:15:40 36.186 141.192 35.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:07:22 36.401 141.862 35.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:06:11 39.025 142.316 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 8.9 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.322 142.369 24.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

[Vinnie From Indy]

10. LOL!

I ask all DU'ers to consider the following:

What is sometimes found behind a "mirror wall"?

Does it make sense that a person with the skill and intelligence to find their way to DU and post this question could not just as easily have gone to Google or some other search engine?

Why does this poster consistently ask such simple questions claiming to be unable to find any information about the subject in question? (there are over four million hits on Google for the word "aftershocks")

Do you think rats in a maze know they are part of an expirement?

Cheers!

[Beaverhausen]

13. wiki page

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftershock

[JCMach1]

14. Seems like the huge quake is also unravelling some of the other faults

A look at the map of aftershocks has a wide area just vibrating like a bell afterwards... lots of quakes in a widespread area.

[Baclava]

17. Ringing like a bell...

The cracks are all connected, you know

[JCMach1]

18. The same sort of thing was measured with the Indonesian quake that caused the massive Tsunami

The bigger the quake, the more pressure also gets released along the smaller fault-lines.

[SheilaT]

15. Just had a 6.6 near the west coast of Honshu, Japan,

according to the nifty little app I have on this computer.

As others have pointed out, the aftershocks continue for a long time. I think there's a technical definition of what makes an aftershock compared to what constitutes a separate earthquake in the same area. My guess is that different fault zones are involved.

[SheilaT]

16. Now a 6.3 near the east coast of Honshu, Japan.

The aftershocks are going to be constant and on-going for quite some time.

After the Haiti quake I saw many, many aftershocks on the computer.