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“We have constructed pyramids in honor of our escaping
This is the land where the Pharaoh died.”
Jim Morrison
Earlier this week, on a thread started by friend “nadinbrzezinski” – one of this forum's most important contributors – she and I had a discussion about the pattern we saw events in Egypt taking. Another good friend asked an essential question: what pattern we we speaking of?
In order to understand not only what is happening in Egypt today (or any other country, including the United States), but to be able to predict what will take place tomorrow, one must have a grasp not only of culture of that nation, but of individuals as well. In this sense, this means the culture of an aging, isolated leader such as Mubarak. An understanding of the thought-processes of such an individual provides the ability to say, with little chance of error, what actions a Mubarak will take when faced with the intense opposition of a large segment of the population of his nation.
Every President of the United States in modern times, for example, is said to “live in a bubble.” They are isolated from the day-to-day realities of the common people. They tend to have contact with their aides and supporters who are invested in promoting that leaders's agenda, something that serves to entrench that group's perception of “us versus them” in terms of any opposition.
Such leaders – elected or otherwise – will always come to view their nation as an extention of themselves. It cannot be otherwise. Hence, for a recent example, Vice President Dick Cheney saw the op-ed by Ambassador Joseph Wilson, which exposed the White House lies about Iraq's WMD programs, as an enemy of the state. Was Cheney also intent upon covering up the administration's criminal actions in spreading those lies? Yes, of course – so much so that he was willing to engage in yet another criminal enterprise with his top aide, Lewis “Scooter” Libby, in exposing the secret identity of Wilson's wife. It is this level of self-righteousness that defines such tyrants.
Two other examples that older forum members will recall would be President Johnson and Nixon. In both cases, these Presidents were in office at a time when a significant portion of the American public was engaged in active protest. There was an intense “generation gap,” the Civil Rights movement, women's liberation activities, and the protests against the Vietnam War.
LBJ provides the best example of how the pressures on an isolated leader can result in delusional thinking. A number of his closest aides, including Bill Moyers, became convinced that Johnson was frequently out of touch with reality. The most stark record of his delusional thought system are found in one of LBJ's rambling monologues: “Two or three intellectuals started it all, you know. They produced all the doubt. …. And it spread and spread. Then Bobby began taking it up as his cause, and with Martin Luther King on his payroll, he went around stirring up the Negroes. …. Then the communists stepped in. They control the three major networks ...” (Arthur Schlesinger; Robert Kennedy & His Times; 1978; page 799). This is classic: LBJ felt inferior to those he considered “intellectuals”; he felt betrayed by both RFK and King, as well as the black citizens; he trusted Hoover's diseased preoccupation with a “communist” threat; and he came to despise the media. Hence, these individuals and groups merged in LBJ's mind as a threat – not only to him, but to America.
Conflict, or even the threat of conflict, brings the absolute essence of a human being to the surface. LBJ was a master of bureaucratic conflicts; he was famous for his using his size and willingness to invade other people's personal space to create the level of discomfort necessary for him to bully his victims. He was also obsessed with being “manly,” and was reactive to what he saw as the weakness of emotions in others. Yet, it was known that Johnson was a coward in the context of conflict that focused upon his weaknesses. Washington insiders had heard stories of how, as a young man, the physically imposing Johnson suffered panic attacks when others invaded his construct of physical safety.
Thus, many believed that if he was faced with a primary challenge in 1968, LBJ would quit. When Senator Eugene McCarthy invaded Johnson's space, he quit. In fact, rather than fully supporting his own Vice President's campaign for the presidency, Johnson would secretly help Richard Nixon. And until 2001, Richard Nixon would be the most dangerous occupant of the White House.
Nixon, as our forum friend Octafish has well documented, rose to power in part due to his connections to the shady characters inhabiting the margins between business and organized crime. To an extent that is unappreciated in the general history of our nation, Nixon served as the first powerful Vice President; under Ike, he manned the “civilian controls” of the nation's covert operations in Central America. That role is only hinted at in the official story of the Bay of Pigs.
After losing a close election to JFK, Nixon would become a company man. After his notorious loss in a governor's race, Nixon would travel around the country, assisting republican candidates. In doing this, he put people in debt to him, and the pay-off came in 1968.
On this forum, we tend to discuss what was known as Nixon's “southern strategy.” However, as older forum members (and readers of Rick Perlstein's 2008 “Nixon Land”) know, Nixon was also focused on what he called “the silent majority.” This was the citizens who were not involved in the protests that were confronting the nation, that ended Johnson's presidency, and that resulted in the police riot at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Only in America could Richard Nixon have run as a “law and order” candidate.
Unlike LBJ, Nixon took all of politics personally. Hence, as President, while he attempted to portray himself as a “man of the people,” his dark side quickly took over. He tended to be as isolated from not only the public, and even Congress, but even from most of his own administration. Nixon created the first model of Dick Cheney hidden in some underground bunker.
The essence of Nixon's being was paranoid, hostile, and vindictive. The protests in America were, in his sick mind, attacks on Richard Nixon. Thus, he viewed criticism of his administration as anti-American.
In one of the most dangerous chapters of the Nixon years, when members of the American Indian Movement occupied the hamlet of Wounded Knee, the administration (under the direction of Al Haig) used the US military, along with domestic law enforcement, to put down the “threat” to the nation. And this from the US President who did more for traditional Native Americans than any other president.
Nixon's downfall, of course, was the Watergate conspiracy and the attempted cover-up. It was far more than a break-in at the Democratic Headquarters. The historic Ervin Committee's “Senate Watergate Report” details the systematic abuses of the law committed by an administration that viewed large segments of the public, the media, and the opposition party, as “enemies of the state.”
In his attempts to punish those who opposed him, Nixon was as willing to attack the foundation of our society, as he was to put an end to the AIM occupation of Wounded Knee. He was, quite literally, creating his own version of “secret police” to carry out his illegal agenda. This included some “former” members of police/intelligence agencies; individuals connected with business; and those on the fringes, at least, of organized crime.
In his journal entry on June 28, 1973, Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote, “Save that Dean's testimony should be shattered, the only thing that will save (Nixon) from impeachment is the fear that so much damage has been done that the Republic dares not risk it.” Indeed, although Nixon resigned in disgrace, numerous aides were incarcerated, and several Congressional investigations would probe related government abuses of power, Washington did not dare to fully cleanse the wounds to our democracy. And because of this, an on-going series of scandals – from Iran-Contra to Plame – have continued to spread the rot.
A strong case can be made that Nixon was removed not so much by Congress, as by an intelligence operation that had the hidden identity of “Deep Throat” ( a legend that does not hold up to any mild examination). Nixon, like LBJ, had a serious psychological break-down, under the pressures of Watergate. It is fair to question if he posed a greater threat to the country before or during this break.
Mubarak is obviously distinct from LBJ or Nixon, just as Egypt is distinct from the USA. A different man, a different culture, and a different time. Yet there are enough similarities that we do well to look for certain patterns. Mubarak is isolated from the common people of Egypt. He suffers (and certainly is the cause of great suffering) from the delusion that those who oppose him are enemies of the state. He believes that “loyal” citizens support him, and became frustrated that the loyal majority were remaining silent in the face of his enemies' attacks on Egypt.
Is Mubarak intent upon covering up his own crimes against his nation and its people? Yes, of course. And this leads to his attempts to use his base, including his own secret police; his business associates, including those involved in criminal activities; and the nation's police forces – if not the military – to put down the unrest.
How far will he go? A good measure is that some dangerous thugs are being released from prisons, with an agreement they can remain free, so long as they assist in the effort to use violence and intimidation, to put down the pro-democracy protesters. A dictator who will take this step will resort to anything in order to survive.
These are the materials that produce the patterns of violence that have happened many times before, and which are playing out in Egypt today.
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