The ones they woo vs the ones they take for dinner with Mom & Dad

[SoCalDem]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Republican_Party_presidential_tickets


Every day we are told of another "possible" republican candidate for president...Bachmann...Palin...Angle...Newtie... some other "new & exciting freshman congressperson with great hair & a nice face"

but when push comes to shove, they are a predictable bunch

The guy who gets the eventual nod will probably be like all the rest of them (except for reagan & bush2..we'll come to them later).

The candidate in '10 will be a bland guy whose "turn" it is.

The mood of the country will probably determine if he wins or not, but the party's choice is usually very formulaic.

Reagan bucked the system, but he was actually a "frontman" for GHWBush, who really ran the show behind the scenes. I think Reagan was not all that aware that he was not really running things, because as an actor, he was used to being "managed", and his advancing age probably made it easy.

GW Bush was an aberration, but think back to the "good people he surrounded himself by"....GHWBush's gang.

I remain convinced that his whole presidency was little more than a vicious payback for GHWB's inability to get his "second term".. and even then we all know that Gore probably really DID win, but had no support strong enough, or the will to forcibly take it away from GW.

All the buzz seems to be about Poor Ole Mittens again, but the rank & file will NEVER select a Mormon to be their presidential candidate.

So who's next?

Not Bachmann
Not Palin
Not Angle
Not Rudy
Not Huckabee

Who's been toeing the line for years?
Who's acceptable to fringe-folks?
Who won't scare the beejeebus out of the "precious independents"?
Who can promise the moon & stars to the "low informationistas"?

Of the 142 years that republicans have been in existence they have managed to get elected for 92 of those years..with many elections in a row in the early years, and after FDR, separated here and there by the occasional democrat, but their method of picking a candidate has been pretty spot on over a very long period of time.

Who's it gonna be this time?

[Demeter]

1. Romney or Jeb

and it won't matter which one

[SoCalDem]

2. I don't think it will be either of them

Romney-Mormon
Jeb- they won't want to "taint" him with a loss..They are saving him for '16

[Hydra]

6. If you think they'll lose in 2012

Then you already answered your question. Think of Bob Dole or John McCain. They will do as you said- pick a bland, controllable Senator that doesn't actually mind taking one for the team. He has to be controllable in case something weird happens and he actually gets elected.

Otherwise they're happy to throw the match in order to let someone else hold the bag while their policies put the country through hell.

I only think they'll do this if one of two things happen:

1) President Obama agrees to keep pushing right for the next 4 years. Bonus for them if so.

2) The economics stay bad- they don't want to be blamed for it.

Otherwise, 2012 is a "historic" chance to overturn the mandate we gave Obama. Think of it as another Reagan moment. Jeb would jump at the chance to be that kind of bulldozer.

[SoCalDem]

8. I still think Jebbie is waiting til '16 when there is an open field

It will be hard for a dem to emerge from Obama's shadow (I think he will be re-elected). There will be no veep running, and it will be a "start-over" election.

I think Jebbie would lose against Obama, since the Bush years are still very present in our lives. I doubt he would want to run in a losing proposition.


Republicans like to assume power with money in the bank & I don't see that happening by '12:evilgrin:

[Hydra]

10. If Obama successfully makes 8 years

Then the Repubs have the same problem they had in 2000- people don't like changing if they don't have to. If Joe Biden choose to run and stuck his foot in his mouth 10 times in a row in front of the NAACP at that point, I think he'd still be safe to win without election tampering.

That has to be a sobering thought for them. That said, bad economy = bad time to be in, and look what they got from Clinton in 2004-2008. It may be tempting for them to see how much more damage can be heaped on the Dem label.

I make that my prediction though. If they put Palin or someone else expendable out there, they aren't going for it. If they send out one of their "boys," expect them to go for the win.

[SoCalDem]

11. Thune is a safe choice..secure in the senate if he loses, and

presentable enough to go up against Obama.. he's well-spoken, smart and good looking.

Biden's age is against him.. We have had two "young" presidents in a row, and I think the new default age is 50-60..especially with the technologies we have now:)

[customerserviceguy]

17. Jeb, never

He isn't "right" on immigration.

[toddaa]

3. Pawlenty or Thunes

Bland, white bread. It's what's for dinner in the GOP.

[SoCalDem]

4. The "other" white meat

:rofl:

[WestSeattle2]

7. I'm thinking Thune as well. n/t

[SoCalDem]

9. That's my guess too.. He's Romney-esque without the Mormon-thing

and he was just re-elected to the senate in '10, so they would not lose an "R" when he loses...

[WestSeattle2]

19. And of course what matters to most American voters is that

he has hair, is taller than 5'9, and is easy on the eyes. Policy positions really don't matter.

He won't really bring much to table as far as electoral college votes, but I think the R's will be running a sacrificial lamb in 2012. Their eyes are really set on 2016.

[SoCalDem]

20. Yep..they may be resigned to losing, but I think they are okay with it

why throw a farmer off his farm with un-planted fields.. best to wait until it's just been harvested:evilgrin:

[WestSeattle2]

21. LOL! A very apt analogy...too funny. n/t

[Lars39]

5. Fred Thompson and Lamar Alexander would have been choices

once upon a time, but they're both getting on up there in years. Bland it will be, though.

[Angry Dragon]

12. maccain/palin

[SoCalDem]

13. mccain= moldy cupcake..palin= frosting

result? dysentery

[Angry Dragon]

14. That works

palin likes to be on top

[ClassWarrior]

15. Bob Dole.

:rofl:

NGU.

[jmowreader]

16. I think it will be Michele Bachmann

This is why.

Right now the Republican Party is getting ready to institute, on a nationwide basis, austerity spending. The International Monetary Fund imposes austerity as one of the conditions for an IMF bailout; in general, the austerity makes things far worse before they improve. I predict fifteen to twenty percent reportable unemployment (I know the current real unemployment rate is about that now, but the numbers I'm talking about will be the people who are both unemployed and who qualify to be counted as such) at the peak of the GOP austerity program. Call me Mr. Gloom and Doom, but I really feel we're headed for a situation where they'll quite fucking around with the soft-and-gentle term "recession" and just call it Great Depression II.

The Republican Party does not want the White House in this situation, because they've painted themselves into a corner. Right now, we need two things in order to pull this country out of the hole it's in. We have GOT to have a WPA-style jobs program--not the "ARRA Stimulus" half-tax-cuts thing Obama signed in 2009, but an all-spending program that puts several trillion dollars into the economy right now--and we've got to raise taxes to at least double what they are now to pay for it. The Republicans are so addicted to tax cuts and spending cuts, their party would dissolve if they attempted to fix the economy properly.

So! In 2012 they are going to run Michele Bachmann for president and someone truly fucking nuts as their VP candidate. I don't know if it'll be Bachmann-Michael Steele, Bachmann-Glenn Beck, Bachmann-Raul Labrador, Bachmann-Reince Priebus or whoever, but the GOP is going to throw the election in grand style: not only is Bachmann going to lose Minnesota, but they'll make sure all the teabaggers they put in office in 2010 are dragged out of office along with Michele. We'll idle along until 2016 with modest growth. At that point the GOP will run either Sarah Palin--by 2016, it'd be easier to get Richard Nixon a third term than to get more than about 10 percent of the electorate to vote for Saint Sarah--and the pukes will do their best to get another FDR on the Democratic ticket.

So, basically, I don't expect a serious Puke presidential nominee until 2024.

[customerserviceguy]

18. We might see a brokered convention

I can envision three or four candidates coming to the nominating convention, each with 20-30% of the delegates. Whoever forms the right coalition can win the nomination, and the rest of the Rethugs will be stuck with him/her.

There's no reason to think that any single Repuke is just going to run away with it as has been done in the past. The news media loves to drag out election contests, look how long they propped Hillary up in '08. If Edwards had done a bit better, they would have loved to have seen a three way tie at our convention.

Being as we have our nominee, the only drama to sell papers comes on the Repig side, and the media will have fun toying with the candidates and the GOP base.

[SoCalDem]

22. and if Hucksterbee runs adain, he'll be sleeping on cots in people's dens

and staying in a very long time...like he did last time. He still has support from the bible-thumpers

[customerserviceguy]

23. He does, indeed

but the law and order types have his number with that pardon he gave to the guy who killed those four cops in Washington State. He'll have to split the fundie vote with Caribou Barbie, who's still got a pretty good hold on them herself.

I can see Hucksterbee, Palin, Mittens, and one of the dark-horse types winding up as the Final Four, and each will have a constituency to satisfy at the convention. It could get messy and ugly, and that's all the better for us.

[SoCalDem]

24. I think he will get a pass on that pardon. Republicans are good at pass-giving

I think Mitch Daniels & Haley Barbour will be in the mix (at first), and Jon Huntsman too..

It will be a full-house in the beginning, but Thune or Pawlenty may end up the sacrificial lamb

[mainstreetonce]

25. Christie

Don't overlook Christie in the mix.

[customerserviceguy]

26. Not gonna happen

but he'd gladly take the VP spot in a heartbeat.