Some predicting a housing rebound next year.

[DCBob]

After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a rebound.

In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline.

<snip>
Industry analysts and players cite a number of reasons - some traditional (employment), others unique to the post-credit bubble era (foreclosures) Â - for the long-awaited sea change. An analysis of industry and government data also support the forecast.

"It has become increasingly apparent to us that the pieces for a housing rebound next year are beginning to fall into place," declared Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim in a recent note to investors.

more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/residential-housing-ready-awaken-180608056.html

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I have not read an article like since the housing bust started. If this is true then we will surely see a significant economic upturn. Housing got us into this mess.. housing could lead us out. Of course, the crisis in Europe could derail everything.

[Bryan Buchan]

1. The US housing market will not recover until

Phoenix, and its large burbs recover, LasVegas and its burbs recover and Parts of Florida. When they improve this crisis may see a rebound. Anything else is just talk. IMO

[JuniperLea]

4. What do you base this on?

Those are all considered resort/retirement properties and are historically the first to suffer and the last to recover.

[Bryan Buchan]

10. Just about every expert who has discussed the issue

They are not all retirement homes. And the fact I own property in metro phoenix. I am one of the few who has listened to the market, and act so I (knock on wood) don't loose what I have.

I could also add to this list, texas, michigan, ohio, penn, indiana...but they are secondary to the epidemic.

[Vincardog]

2. Home prices can not recover before WAGES recover. HTF are people supposed to pay for the homes?

[DCBob]

3. There are alot of folks like me who are renting and paying more for rent than a typical mortgage.

Not sure I could come up with the downpayment but the main reason Im not even trying is because I fear I would buy a house that would worth much less a year from now.

[robinlynne]

5. a mortage is more than rent for the same size home. It just is. Plus buying

menas repairs, taaxes, insurance, etc. So the idea that you can buy a home and pay less than rent is really a myth. (I'm a renter too.)
obviously if you downsize a lot, a mortgage might cost less than rent.

[DCBob]

6. but you also need to consider the tax break on a mortgage..

and the peace of mind of owning you own place. Its a complicated and difficult choice but I might be more willing to go for it if I thought housing values had bottomed.

[Vincardog]

11. You need to realize that after 30 years of flat wages MOST of America is not in your position. Not

everyone can afford to take on a mortgage (even if the banks were lending which they are not).
They system is broken because the rich and greedy have taken 99% of the productivity grains for the last 30 years.
They system is broken because the average take home pay for the average worker has not risen for the last 30 years.
The system is broken because the financial parasites have corrupted the law makers to legalize their formerly illegal activities.
The system can not be fixed until these fundamental errors are corrected.
That is in spite of your personnel circumstances.

[Huey P. Long]

12. Let me just say I think you'd be wise to wait a few more years, imo.

Prediction 6 months from now, 'unexpected home value decline' headlines.
One cannot predict an absolute bottom. Better to buy on consecutive upswings. "Never try to catch a falling knife".

[izquierdista]

7. Must be all those returning servicemen.

I've got a clue to sell these analysts: it's not 1946. There are no factories and jobs to come back to, no Interstate highway system to be built, no space race to win, and no lack of housing. If they need a model economy to base their projections on, they should look at Japan and the lost (two) decade(s).

Other than that, I'm completely optimistic at the possibilities of a recovery! :bounce:

[Speck Tater]

8. Some are predicting snow in hell too. Who, I wonder, are these "some"...

... who are always predicting stuff that never, ever actually happens?

[DCBob]

9. read the article and you would know who the "some" are.

;)

[spanone]

13. not if the republicans can stop it.

[Xicano]

14. Rebounding to what? Another massive bubble? How is that gonna happen?

The real estate market is already rebounding. Its rebounding back down to its real value. The only way the real estate market can rebound back upward to where it was is to re-inflate that bubble.

Real estate prices are a product of wages. With the current massive unemployment problem and real wages being stagnant for over a decade, and, with all the mortgage fraud having been exposed, not to mention the current banking crisis, how is this bubble suppose to be re-inflated? All the cheap credit and fraud mortgage lenders were providing which drove that bubble is done. All that's left now is to try and pick up the pieces.

Vincardog's post is correct: "Home prices can not recover before WAGES recover." Although I would argue that "recover" in this case means lower real estate prices because previous real estate prices were a massive bubble and like all bubbles, they pop.

Real estate in my opinion is a dead market for at least the next ten years or more.