http://gawker.com/5826921/yes-there-is-a-student-loan-bubbleYes, There Is a Student Loan Bubblesnip
The report also points out that colleges are steering students towards ever larger private loans, and that, since demand for education actually rises during bad economic times, we're now smack dab in dynamic consisting of more people taking out more loans for school that will not provide them with a job that will enable them to pay back those loans, leading to higher loan defaults and, ultimately, the risk of a collapsing bubble—which, in this case, would be bad not only for the normal economic reasons, but also because it would discourage enrollment in higher education over the long term, giving America a less educated work force over the coming decades.
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http://image.exct.net/lib/fefb127575640d/m/2/Student+Lendings+Failing+Grade.pdfStudent Lending’s Failing Gradesnip
Delinquency rates on student loans have not improved as have the rates for other kinds of consumer loans, raising the prospect that significant numbers of student loan borrowers will be unable to repay their loans in the coming years, Moody's Analytics says in a new report assessing the stability of the student loan market. The report notes that the student loan market expanded during the last part of the 2000s, in contrast to mortgages and other kinds of borrowing that was significantly tightened during the economic downturn. But while delinquency rates on those housing and car loans that were issued after the worst of the downturn have improved, those for student loans have flattened, Moody's says. "Unless students limit their debt burdens, choose fields of study that are in demand, and successfully complete their degrees on time, they will find themselves in worse financial positions and unable to earn the projected income that justified taking out their loans in the first place."
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http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/CollegeAndFamily/CutCollegeCosts/StudentLoansAnotherBubblePops.aspxStudent loans: Another bubble pops?Has the U.S. created an "education bubble" fueled by easy money and over-borrowing by families desperate to pay rising tuition costs?
Expect a hastily sputtered "no way" from economists, university officials and student-lending specialists. They attach a high monetary value to academic degrees, no matter how fast tuition rises. As proof, they cite the big and growing income gap between college graduates and people with just high-school diplomas.
But the student-loan market has been riddled with signs of trouble lately. Default rates are rising. Big-name lenders are pulling out or scaling back. And investors who used to snap up bonds backed by bundles of student loans have instead snapped their checkbooks shut.
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/277941-shorting-student-loans-the-next-major-credit-bubbleShorting Student Loans: The Next Major Credit BubbleAmerica's debt crisis did not end with the subprime mortgage crisis. Mortgages, may set off the trigger, but the student loan debt is an overlooked bond bubble waiting to crash.
Student loans have surpassed credit card debt for the leading type of private debt among Americans. The cost of higher education has been outpacing inflation since 1982, as the real cost of education has increased 339%. Societal pressure to go to college and some students' decisions to go to non-Ivy League private schools has students from middle income backgrounds racking up anywhere between $50,000 to $200,000 in student loan debt. That figure does not include graduate school, where many students will add more loans that easily surpass six figures to obtain a masters, law degree, MBA, or medical degree.
With the current state of the job market, many if not most of these unfortunate borrowers will not be able to pay off their debt with a lower than expected income. This trend is showing itself through increasing default rates of student loans. Three-year default rates have risen from 11.8% for loans issued in 2007 to 13.8% issued in 2008 (most recent data available). Meanwhile, the fundamental factors driving these defaults have not changed since.
Historically, investors have not worried about the default of these securities because of their explicit government guarantees through FFELP. In addition to this, student loans are the only debt that cannot be forgiven through bankruptcy. Student loan collectors have gone to the extent of garnishing wages and racking up penalties that can double the borrower's debt in the name of "forgiveness" to maintain a return for bondholders.
This story sounds similar to housing: If the borrowers fail to pay, lenders seize the asset (house for a mortgage, garnished wages for student loans). The story will end the same way, as students lack the income to maintain their living expenses plus the debt or even just the interest payments if they are unemployed. The other option that students will begin to take more is moving abroad to avoid collectors. Financial distress will make it practical to exile oneself to avoid a lifetime of debt slavery. The combination of lower incomes for college grads and expatriation will increase the default rate to even high levels than current record rates.
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http://www.good.is/post/when-will-the-bubble-burst-student-loan-debt-swells-511-percent/When Will the Bubble Burst? Student Loan Debt Swells 511 PercentIt's no secret that American students are being crushed by student loans. We're on track to cross the $1 trillion mark in total student debt, exceeding household credit card debt, sometime later this year. That sounds pretty insane, but thanks to our colleagues at The Atlantic
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/08/chart-of-the-day-student-loans-have-grown-511-since-1999/243821/ we can see just how far out of hand the situation has spiraled.
The magazine tapped data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and found that total student loan debt increased a whopping 511 percent between the first quarter of 1999 and the first quarter of 2011:
We all know how much havoc the housing bubble wreaked on our economy, but it turns out the growth of student loan debt was twice as steep as the growth of mortgages and revolving home equity from 1999 to the peak of the housing bubble in 2008. One thing is for sure: if mass numbers of students start defaulting, or if they stop spending on other things because their money is going to paying off loans, a day of reckoning is surely coming. The only question is when?
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Classic catch-22, as the economy and job market worsen, more students will go into univeristies. Then to fight the economic situation, The Federal Reserve is debasing the US dollar even further, thus leading to increasing costs. Finally, as the jobs continue to vanish in America, there are fewer ways the pay back the massive debts being rung up in student loans. As the salaries earned by college graduates decrease in many, many fields in terms of real dollars, the fortunate ones to find jobs will face a longer and longer term of their life in chattel debt servitude.