Great. The "citizen" exit polls don't match in WI. The same "reluctant responder" thing

[applegrove]

the GOP always does. All the GOP has to do is get a small percentage of their voters to refuse exit pollsters and it gets tons of democrats working and talking their butts off re: election fraud. It wastes our resources. It is a win for the GOP to do this, almost as much as the same technique was used to trick democrats into not bothering to vote for Kerry at the end of the day in 2004...because the exit polls had Kerry with a big win (called the exit poll reluctant GOP responder theory).

Great. We can now waste tons of time, resources and might on this false issue instead of getting out the vote. We can now run around and tell anyone who will listen about Republicans stealing votes by machine...alienating ourselves from many people in the process!!! That will garner the GOP a small % of votes...probably equivalent to what you think they have stolen. They are just screwing us another way and we are falling for it.

These were citizen exit polls. And are still vulnerable to those GOP told not to respond to polls.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1738466&mesg_id=1738466

[RandySF]

1. What exit polls?

The press didn't do any for the recall elections. And the results pretty closely match the last poll done by PPP, which only got one race wrong when they had a Republican in the lead.

[EFerrari]

2. Election Defense Alliance did exit polls.

There was a thread about it here today.

[RandySF]

5. Could have been poorly done

Or it could even have been sampling bias. In 2004, the firm that did the exit polling for the media had problems with college students selecting other college students. Regardless, the results pretty closely matched the final PPP polls.

[EFerrari]

9. EDA does good work. Although, there is a group of people

who seems to believe exit polls only work in the former Soviet bloc.

[OnTheOtherHand]

13. not exactly

You make a good point about sampling bias, but it's inextricable from non-response bias. I think those forms of bias are more likely than either hacking or a GOP conspiracy to mess up the polls.

In 2004, the firm that did the exit polling for the media had problems with college students selecting other college students. Regardless, the results pretty closely matched the final PPP polls.

It's true that college student interviewers had larger average "Within Precinct Error" than other interviewers. It probably isn't because they were selecting other college students -- more likely because because of how voters reacted to them.

I'm not sure what you meant by the last sentence. The exit poll in New Hampshire showed Kerry winning by 15 points. That was nowhere near the pre-election polls and really made no sense at all. (And it wasn't all due to young interviewers.)

As far as I can see, EDA's exit poll results in Wisconsin don't make much sense either.

[applegrove]

3. See this DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1738466&mesg_id=1738466

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. You know... stop blaming the turn out and smell the coffee

we have a problem with fraud in this country, and all that faith voting ain't gonna change it.

UNTIL we can really verify them... and DRE machines are NOT it... we will continue to have these issues.

That is all I will say about this here. Me... I still vote... but I ain;t counting on it being counted or being counted RIGHT. I do not engage in faith elections. I know something is rotten and until THE PARTY finally decides to face to it, it ain't gonna change.

Problem is... more than one person will take the other choice... why bother? And quite frankly I can't blame them.

We should have had a Justice investigation a WHILE AGO.

[Hawkowl]

6. Maybe Eric Holder can bust some more pot growers!

That should fix everything. Move along. Nothing to see .here. It's all Ralph Nader's fault for making it close enough to steal.

[applegrove]

7. Maybe the GOP reluctant responders are not specifically told not to respond..maybe they

just have the mantra "TAKE AWAY MY FREEDOM" running through their brains so much that they are paranoid and refuse to respond. Who knows how they do it. They respond at a lesser rate than democrats. If we don't accept that as a fact we give them a small % of the vote by being outraged.

This is not to say Republicans are not using voter IDs and the Supremes to steal elections. I fully believe that they steal elections in lots of other ways. Just not in the difference between the exit polls and the machines because the exit polls are wrong.

[aquart]

8. Of course the election isn't stolen at the exit polls.

It's stolen in the machines we have been forced to vote on. Which is why dear Kathy has to wait to see the returns before she can manufacture her numbers.

[applegrove]

10. Thanks for catching that. Of course I meant the difference between exit polls and the machines.

I changed my last paragraph. Mistake due to sleep-y-ness. zzzz.

[SpiralHawk]

15. +1,000

nailed it

[provis99]

11. that's a bloody silly argument.

Do you have any proof at all that there was a massive conspiracy by the GOP to inform its voters not to cooperate with exit pollers?

Good grief.

Here's what's going on. The exit polls accurately reflected the voters' votes. The voting machines did not accurately reflect voters' votes. Hence, it is reasonable to assume GOP electoral fraud, especially given the past history of electoral fraud carried out in Wisconsin by the GOP.

[applegrove]

12. It is called the reluctant bush responder hypothesis. According to this link, it is found

amongst conservatives in Britain too.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Shy_Elephant_Factor


And this from Pollster.com

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/exit-polls/2006/10/22-week/

[OnTheOtherHand]

14. why do you think you know that?

Here's what's going on. The exit polls accurately reflected the voters' votes. The voting machines did not accurately reflect voters' votes.

Evidence?

ETA: I certainly don't think there's any evidence that the GOP tampered with the exit poll.

[applegrove]

16. I could simply be that the GOP has their followers more paranoid than democrats are.

That could make the difference. Or it could be that the MSM has been run down so much the GOP voter doesn't trust journalist/pollsters. I don't know. But the exit polls were all wrong for kerry and that is what fooled dems into not voting that night (Kerry's win was in the bag) and faulty exit polls continue to trick people into behaviour that costs us democrats votes.