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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 02:35 PM
Original message
Hedging austerity in Italy
Looks like Italy may be next in line for the austerity/financier windfall that's becoming an all to familiar patter.

In looking up some info about G20 agreements to austerity I came across the following two articles about Italy.


{b] Italy’s austerity budget gains approval{/b]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/adc1b10a-a813-11e0-9f50-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RjOdSdyY
July 6, 2011 10:13 pm

Presenting the package, Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, reaffirmed the centre-right government’s intention to reduce the budget deficit to 3.9 per cent of gross domestic product this year and gradually to zero by 2014.

But if the intention was to bring clarity to the mix of cuts and projected revenues, ministers at a news conference only added to confusion over the total amount of budget-tightening measures and provided few details on how the targets would be achieved.

~~~

“Some of the measures are not structural, others will be deeply unpopular, but the prospects for deficit reduction are good provided the growth performance of the economy improves,” said a Mizuho International analyst.



And days later, what do US financiers do?

US hedge funds bet against Italian bonds
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1b83238-aae6-11e0-b4d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RjOdSdyY

Last updated: July 10, 2011 5:52 pm

US hedge funds are placing large bets against the value of Italian government debt, directly shorting the bonds of the eurozone’s third largest economy.

The funds have increased the size of short positions in the last month, speculating that investor concerns over the country’s ability to fund itself may spread from Europe’s periphery to Italy, according to investors in the funds briefed on the strategy.

~~~

As Italy’s funding costs rise, the value of its existing debt falls, creating a profit for those who have shorted it by borrowing the debt to sell and buy back at a later date.

~~~

However, he cautioned: “Ironically, the trigger point for the trade to go wrong could be when it is at its most profitable. If the Italian situation gets too bad then European governments would have to step in and do something.”
If Italy’s economy were to suffer a debt crisis, he argues, then the final policy option available to the authorities will be common eurozone debt issuance funded collectively by the member countries.



I'm no economist, but this looks to me very similar to patterns in Ireland and Greece, which would bode ill for the Italian people, but result in large profits for the financial speculators.




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Octafish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. Funny how privatization goes right along with concentrated power whenever 'austerity' is mentioned.
Thank you for the heads-up, suffragette. Berlusconi and his cronies won't be hurting, but the Italian middle class soon may be history.
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Yes, and funny how the media and administration here are avoiding using the word austerity
even as the proposals being floated are akin to austerity measures being implemented in Europe.

Note also the dates.

From the article above:
"Italy’s three-year austerity package designed to eliminate the budget deficit by 2014 ..."



From Obama at the Toronto G20 summit:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-obama-g-20-press-conference-toronto-canada

So I think this has really been an issue in which there is violent agreement between the parties. We have to make sure we’re not rushing to the exits too quickly and all at the same time. But we also have to be mindful that the debt and deficit levels that many advanced countries have right now are unsustainable and have to be dealt with in a serious way.

~~~

With respect to the first question, we helped to draft this communiqué, which reflects our policies. I know leading up to the conference, leading up to the summit, there was some sense of a divide. In fact, the policies that we’ve been promoting are reflected in the communiqué and entirely consistent with what the G20 leaders came up with.

Keep in mind that we had already proposed a long time ago that we were going to cut our deficits in half by 2013. And so the time frame and the measures that have been adopted are consistent with our view that it is important for us to make sure that in the medium and long term, we are paying attention the big deficits and debts that we have out there.

What we did say coming to this conference is we can’t all rush to the exits at the same time. So countries that have surpluses should think about how can they spur growth and how can they spur demand. Not all of those involve stimulus. Some of them might involve structural changes in their economy. Some of them might involve passing financial regulatory reforms so that their banks are lending again.


G20’s “Violent Agreement” on Austerity Will Smash Global Economy
http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/g20-s-violent-agreement-austerity-will-smash-global-economy

At the G20 meeting in Toronto at the end of June 2010, we witnessed a complete reversal of the policy discourse. With a bit of pressure on the representatives of the developing world, the Western leaders of the G20 pact left agreeing on the goals that had been proposed by the host prime minister, Stephen Harper, and other deficit hawks, such as David Cameron and Angela Merkel. According to the G20 declaration, these government leaders had committed themselves to fiscal plans that would surgically cut their deficits by at least 50 percent by 2013 as well as stabilize and begin to reduce government debt-to-GDP ratios by 2016, all in the name of stabilizing the macroeconomy. Although there was some debate over the precise timetable of their “exit strategy,” Barack Obama emphasized that on the issue of fiscal austerity “there is violent agreement between the parties.”

It is hard to imagine how “violently” the world political elite can “agree” to deflate the world economy in light of the mostly peaceful protests against austerity in the streets of Toronto. However, when asked how the economy is supposed to be stabilized and brought back to a desirable high growth path, these world leaders referred to the positive effects on growth of a reduced burden of overhanging public debt. They pointed to the necessity for public debt stabilization and fiscal sustainability. And they highlighted the need to make way for the private sector in the growth strategy.

~~~

We need policies that sustain growth on a permanent basis, not abort it. As Keynes said, “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.” This kind of policy framework, associated with Keynesian ideas, is known as “functional finance“. It was quite successfully implemented during the early postwar years to achieve full employment before these policies succumbed to the monetarist onslaught. Since the 1970s, several generations of young economists have had little or no exposure to these Keynesian ideas and have been trained to think that there is no alternative to the neoclassical doctrine of “sound finance,” which had been discredited during the 1930s.

There are, however, economists out there who do think otherwise. A good example is the recent letter signed by over 200 Italian economists who affirm that yes we can imagine positive alternatives to austerity and economic retrenchment. They reject the misguided neoclassical ideology that has gripped the European members of the G20. A similar letter was signed by a number of British economists earlier this spring. While the deficit hawks seemed to have won the battle in the Western countries, it is less clear to what extent the G20 leaders from Asia and Latin America are actually swallowing this ideological-driven rhetoric from the likes of Cameron, Harper and Merkel, whose policies that they advocate could drive the world economy into a vicious downward deflationary spiral.





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Starry Messenger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 01:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Thank you for this post.
++++
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Thanks Starry. I just think it's so important to look at the context for the current proposals
These aren't happening in a vacuum but as part of an agreement by G20. The media has been assiduously avoiding this aspect and using "austerity" to describe the process, though that plan is clearly at the root of this.

And we can see from what has been done in Europe that a major aspect of that is cutting social programs, especially what's termed public pensions there and Social Security here.

Another part is privatizing public assets.

I've noticed that Biden's plan makes note of that that, but have found no details on what is proposed to be sold:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/10/us/politics/10debt.html

The narrower package negotiated by Mr. Biden in a series of meetings with House and Senate Democrats was still considered large enough to allow for a debt hike through most of 2012. It combined a series of spending cuts that both Republicans and Democrats had identified in a range of federal agencies and programs, with some new revenue generated through options such as requiring federal employees to contribute more to their pensions, cuts in agriculture subsidies and the sale of federal assets.


We have a much smaller social net here, so any impact will, I think, be magnified.

Of course, as part of this, people like Tepper will likely rake in even more profits:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1388416&mesg_id=1390874




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socialist_n_TN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I personally think that's the whole purpose behind
the "austerity" measures. Privatization of EVERYTHING is the ultimate goal, NOT balancing budgets. That's just the excuse.
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. I agree with your assessment.
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Mimosa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-12-11 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Like ours is becoming? n/t
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sabrina 1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
7. How come the same recipe is being applied across the board
to every country including this one? Are there no more sovereign nations who get to decide how they want to run their countries?

I know the people do not want these measures, they've been out in the streets in France, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and they are being ignored. As if the people no longer matter.

More and more it seems that Global Capitalists, who we sort of ignored when they were only operating in third world countries, or in Latin America even though there were predictions that 'we will be next', have almost achieved their goal of controlling the world economy with little say by individual countries.

It's mind boggling really how effient it was, or maybe it's just because there was no effective opposition since most ordinary people did not know what was going on.

Thanks for the thread, suffragette. Too late to rec, but :kick:
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. People do not want these measures and austerity clearly does not produce
the effect that is the purported goal of stabilizing economies.

However, the agenda appears set and I'm not sure at this point what will stop it.

It is mind boggling.
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sabrina 1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Since what is being proposed is going to be 'painful'
as they say over and over again, although not for them, why not go for the suffering all at once and then begin the rebuilding.

I still think Greece should have defaulted and I don't believe that what has been done their won't need to be done again, and so the suffering continues over a longer period time, but only for the people. Defaulting would truly have made THEM 'share the sacrifice'.

I hate that I am now feeling that even if it hurts the rest of us, just to see THEM have to pay, might be worth it. These austerity measures assure that they will not suffer at all. And that is becoming less and less tenable to many people.

I know, it's mean but no matter how mean we get, we could never catch up to them and being nice sure hasn't worked.
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Then they would neither have the short-term rewards nor the public assets
that they get to buy at bargain rates and privatize.

Not to mention the bonus of breaking labor, both its bargaining power for people and its political power for the future.

And again, that's being done everywhere this is occurring.


I agree with you that that Greece should have defaulted and let those bankers take their "haircuts." And that Iceland's direction is the way to go, but I don't see any indication we're going this way.




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Mimosa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-12-11 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Great explanation (as always) Sabrina.
Thank you, Sabrina. :)
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sabrina 1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-12-11 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Hi Mimosa,
It's just sickening, but I wonder if the speeding up of all of this is a sign that they may have gone too far. They used to be more subtle about it. Europeans especially seem to be catching on. Their propagandists are in trouble, Murdoch eg, and maybe I'm imagining it but there is a desperation about their actions for the past two years.

And of course the Wikileaks cables have helped people see behind the curtain in many instances, not so much here, but definitely in other parts of the world. Their takeover of the World's economy might not have been possible had the people known what they were up to. It really did depend on the ignorance of populations about to be raided of their resources.

And Wikileaks changed all of that ...
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