Harvard Study: Kids who attend 4th of July parades more likely to vote Republican.

[RandySF]

Attending a Fourth of July fireworks display or flag waving parade as a child slightly increases the likelihood that that kid will grow up to vote Republican, according to a study a team of Harvard University researchers.

Even a single July 4 celebration boosts the chance of turning a kid into a Republican, the study claims.

"One Fourth of July without rain before age 18 increases the likelihood of identifying as a Republican at age 40 by 2 percent, the share of people voting for the Republican candidate at age 40 by 4 percent, and the share of people turning out to vote at age 40 by 0.9 percent," the study concludes.

The findings leave some questions unanswered, a contention that David Yanagizawa-Drott, the assistant professor of public policy of Harvard University's Kennedy School who co-wrote the study with Andreas Madestam of Bocconi University, seems to acknowledge.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/fourth-july-makes-republicans-study/story?id=13979855

[frazzled]

1. That's whack.

Sorry, but we were taken every year to Fourth of July fireworks displays. We took our kids, too, as well as to the local parades. We're all screaming liberals. Depends on where you live I should imagine.

[Mojorabbit]

6. Same here

My Pop took us to air shos also. (excuse the typos as my double u is not orking on the keyboard this afternoon). A master sgt in the air force and the family every year did the fourth up right including attending the pyrotechnics.

[femmocrat]

10. Same here. We even marched in the parades.

And I love fireworks displays! I even have red, white and blue decorations up for the holiday.

Although.... I'll bet the a-holes who set off firecrackers and fireworks from Friday through Monday of this weekend are repukes!!!
What is it with yahoos and pyrotechnics?

[NotThisTime]

42. I just watched the firework display from my house with one of my kids, the other is down at the

display, no R's in this house... we do like fireworks however....

[Wilms]

2. In a related story...

Americans have forgotten why 4th of July is a holiday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x597161

[razorman]

15. Begin rant. I don't even use the term, "4th of July". I say, "Independence Day". Otherwise,

it just becomes another day off work. Other holidays, like Presidents' Day, Memorial Day, and Armed Forces Day have become just another day off for most people. I also hate the way that so many of these holidays have been set to always be on Mondays, in order to arrange a three-day weekend. It just detracts from any true meaning they once had.
After all the hard work to get it recognized, it would not surprise me if, within the next decade or so, Martin Luther King, Jr.'s birthday simply becomes "MLK Day", or "Civil Rights Day" or something. Then, it will become a traditional sale day for furniture stores or something, the same way President's Day has become the day for auto dealers. Of course, Christmas has become uber-commercialized for over a century. I despise the term, "X-mas".
It's a good thing I am such a perfect and concerned citizen, or this would really bug me and I might fall for some of this stuff. Rant over. Thanks for listening.

[Wilms]

41. Rant appreciated.

:patriot:

[Raine]

3. Eh Bullshit

I went to 4th of July events when I was kid also Armed Forces Day parades and I'm hard-core liberal.

[LiberalLoner]

9. Me too. n/t

[Evoman]

34. It's freaking statistics....it doesn't say 100% of people who go to parades turn

through a process of patriotic magic, into Republicans.

[CTyankee]

4. But NOT on Martha's Vineyard....the island is inundated by Dems on the 4th.

The bunting on the old houses in Edgartown is beautiful and impressive. The town is MOBBED. Ferries are packed with people...the best time to go is right after the 4th and before August...beaches are less populated...it's wonderful...I love the vineyard...

[Starry Messenger]

5. Bwah!

Doesn't Harvard have better things to do?

[CTyankee]

7. The Kennedy School of Politics at Harvard specifically does study these sorts of things.

I think their stuff is creative and helpful...

[Starry Messenger]

14. Well, as a long time denizen of July 4th celebrations

as a kid, I think this one is a miss.

[Chemisse]

8. Even if this is true, couldn't it be that Republicans are more likely to attend

yearly fourth of July parades with their kids - or perhaps were more likely during the time period the people in the study were children?

It seems pretty silly to conclude that going to the parade would turn someone into a Republican.

[FreakinDJ]

11. Oh Gawd - The Knights of Columbus must have really fucked me all up

Not only was I at the parade but I was on the Knights of Columbus float

Damm - now I'm fucked for life

[L0oniX]

12. Flag wavers generally are repukes.

It seems like the less a statesman amounts to, the more he loves the flag. – Elbert Hubband

If you have a weak candidate and a weak platform, wrap yourself up in the American flag and talk about the Constitution. – Matt Quay

[Deep13]

13. Yup, symbolism over substance. nt

[gkhouston]

16. What happens if it rains?

:scared:

First fireworks show my kid ever saw was from a Pentagon parking lot and it rained most of the evening.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

17. Well, I think Republicans are more into patriotic symbols

They're into songs, flags, pins, salutes, etc. They're not actually into helping Americans thrive. In fact, they're AGAINST helping this country's people, ecology, economy, etc. But they are definitely into the symbols of it.

[DesertFlower]

18. my grandfather was president of

a democratic club. we always celebrated 4th of july. as a young child i was allowed with supervision to hold a "sparkler" right outside the club.

[Urban Prairie]

19. I witnessed many 4th of July parades and fireworks displays every summer

as a child in the 60s, so I must be an "outlier" in their studies.

My younger sister eventually became a Republican voter, but not until a few years after she married into a mostly wealthy family.

My two younger brothers are both somewhat liberal if not apolitical, pretty sure that one, if not both rarely if ever have voted in local or national elections, and I never asked them if they ever have.

2%, 4% and especially 0.9% isn't exactly a huge difference anyway, and no total(s) were listed of how many, where they lived, where they grew up, who and what cross-sections of the US population were polled or included, and by what means that they used to contact and conduct in their research?

[kwassa]

20. We march in our local 4th parade on Monday.

I have voted for every Democratic candidate since 1970.

[underpants]

21. Are they factoring in the Repub's wrapping themselves in the flag and their proganda?

are they factoring in that historically Republican areas have parades and that may be the only thing going on in town?

[xfundy]

22. Bullshit propaganda.

This spreads the ludicrous meme that Publicans are inherently more patriotic, and that "proper child rearing" will produce the "good kind" of 'Murkkkin."

[kiranon]

23. Nonsense. n/t

[saras]

24. Correlation is not causation

"One Fourth of July without rain before age 18 increases the likelihood of identifying as a Republican at age 40 by 2 percent"

Without rain? So if you live somewhere it rains every Fourth, you won't become Republican even if your whole community is Birchers and you go out to watch the parades anyways?

[Juno2k5]

25. .

odd

[noamnety]

26. DUers reacting to statistics always makes me want to cry.

"You are 2% more likely to be over 6 feet tall if you ate spinach"

"That's bullshit - I ate spinach and I'm only 5 feet tall"

--------
It's like we can't comprehend the whole concept of how statistics and curves work.

[frazzled]

29. Many such studies are poorly done

Inadequate methodology happens all the time--even (and sometimes even often) at Harvard. Often causation is not proven--only correlation. I think you know that.

[Evoman]

32. I get a kick out of it.

EVERY single poll, no matter how it's done, is always attacked by anecdotal "evidence". It's a hoot.

[tsuki]

27. Dad was military. We went to every patriotic celebration, but he was a yellow dog. So am I. nt

[xmas74]

28. This is dumb.

I eagerly attended the parades growing up, hoping to get some good candy and freebies. As I got older I marched in the parades as a member of the band and helped build floats. And I still attend the fireworks every year.

My kid now marches in the kiddie parade and we attend the fireworks together. We also do all the other activities, such as the fun runs and games. And I decorate with bunting that we've had for years, along with putting my flag out.

[no_hypocrisy]

30. I wasn't susceptible to being brainwashed when I attended local parades.

[surrealAmerican]

31. The people who wrote this study ought to be ashamed of themselves ...

... as should the news media for not reading it critically before reporting on it.

The reasoning of the study goes something like this:
a. Fewer people attend parades, fireworks, and other community events if it rains.

therefore

b. If it rains on the forth of July, no children will attend such events.
and
c. If it doesn't rain, all children will attend these events. {This includes children who live in communities that do not hold such events, those who attend summer camps away from their communities, those whose families make other plans, etc.}

They also assume that people all live in the communities they grew up in, except in cases where the authors were able to find the subject's place of birth (when they assume they grew up in the place they were born instead).

[Unvanguard]

33. I used to think that correlation implied causation.

http://xkcd.com/552/">Then I took a statistics class. Now I don't.

[surrealAmerican]

35. That is maybe the best xkcd ever.

[Unvanguard]

36. It is one of my favorites. n/t

[treestar]

37. There is no relationship

Except the Republicans claiming the flag and the patriotic symbols for themselves. Which is BS.

[fujiyama]

38. What a pathetic study

Now I know why the Kennedy School is often considered a joke. I believe Bill O'Reilly attended there too. Maybe I can commission a study and conclude that attending Harvard makes you 50% more likely to be an elitist douchebag.

Seriously though, I would expect more from a study by Haaaavuhd or any other university for that matter. Or at least I'd expect studies being done on something less trivial (maybe on pressing issues like poverty, homelessness, rising gap in inequality, lack of access to health care and decent jobs). Or maybe their conclusions can reflect that correlations do not necessarily indicate a causation or anything for that matter. But then again maybe statistics isn't a prerequisite for studies done by the Kennedy school and their professors are paid for the most idiotic things.

All I do know is they're doing their best to reinforce the perception that republicans are more patriotic. Fuck that noise. I didn't know fireworks had an ideological agenda behind them.

[Peacetrain]

39. Bull Hockey.. Utter and complete Bull Hockey..

[XanaDUer]

40. Every summer I'd attend fireworks displays in Queens, NY

and anywhere else, and I am to the left of Che.