Just what if the economy improves in 15 months then what?

[bigdarryl]

Everybody is assuming the unemployment will still be high as it is now but remember last month there were 117,000 new jobs created.What if this is a trend that gets better every month up until election time.Also remember there have been jobs created every month since Obama has been in office sometimes only slightly like in April when there were only 39,000 jobs that month but he has never not lost jobs as did Bush 700,000 a month so my prediction is these jobs numbers will get better next year.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Bush Got The Republicants Fired

.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. If Americans feel better about the economy, it will be good for Obama...

If they feel worse, it will be bad.

Neither guarantees a win by Obama or means the Democrats will retain the Senate or win seats in the House. But it will be better if the economy gets better.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. If The Economy Was To DRAMATICALLY Improve Obama Would Be A Shoo In

The converse is pretty close to being true also.

[bigdarryl]

4. he's already a shoo in for the popular vote

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x681394

[Mr Deltoid]

33. Republicans cheat though

That is the big problem

[GillesDeleuze]

5. LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!

What if unicorns farted muffins?

[scheming daemons]

8. 15 months is a long time

[GillesDeleuze]

its going to get worse before it gets better..

global housing slump
eurozone decline
record low global shipping
capital preservation from investor class

everything adds up to disaster. there is nothing the president or congress can do short of a real stimulus (massive infrastructure) program that will have any affect on the us economy.

the federal reserve has interests at 0 for 24 months.

[Skittles]

35. do you understand

that right now, NOTHING is in place to get a great number of jobs, but PLENTY is in place to SHED them

[moksha]

40. Yeah, but we're 32 months into Obama's 1st term will very little to show.

How in the world is our dysfunctional government going to substantially improve the economy in 15 months?

[JoePhilly]

10. Its fun watching "democrats" hope the economy fails.

And of course, the fact that the economy has improved under Obama should be ignored.

How else does Rick Perry, stimulus recipient, become President.

[elleng]

11. Thanks again JoeP; always give me a 'lift.'

[GillesDeleuze]

19. "improved"

you use that word like it means something.

short term gains in the past do not add up to a successful anti-recession strategy.

[bertman]

29. JoePhilly, is there some miraculous economic comeback happening in Philly these days?

Cause it sure as hell ain't happening where I live. It's WORSE--far WORSE--here than it was last year.

We never saw the 'green shoots' and we don't see any light at the end of the tunnel now.

HOPING hasn't done jack shit for getting this Administration to FIGHT for the WORKING CLASS.

[muffin1]

30. I read that post. I don't see where the poster "hopes the economy fails".

From the remarks, it sounds like the poster doesn't think the economy will improve markedly in 15 months.

And "democrats"? Are you implying the person is not a Democrat? I didn't think that was allowed here.

[scheming daemons]

6. republicans would simply shift back to "Kenyan birth" mode

That's where they were when the economy was rebounding over the winter

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. If Unemployment Was < 6%

If unemployment was less than 6% the Pugs could say he slept with Muammar Khadafy's Little Green Book under his bed and he would win in a landslide.

[GillesDeleuze]

21. id much rather have that debate

then the 14-16% unemployment we will be looking at

[ksoze]

7. If based on unemployment numbers - it will be a stretch to catch up

I believe I saw where it will take that recent job growth rate just to hold the unemployment number where it is when you factor in population growth. The question is what does the rate need to be at election time to make a difference - getting it down like a full point may require adding 300K jobs now every month for a year. Hopefully, if the trend continues just adds each month will win over voters, but the actual unemployment rate may not be that great by the time the election cycle is in full force.

[JoePhilly]

12. A key question is "What was the rate when the stimulus passed?"

It was about 8.4% in feb 2009, and then 8.7% in March in 2009, and increasing FAST.

It hit 10.2 by Oct 2009, and then, as the stimulus took effect, started to drop ... down all the way to about 8.9% in Jan this year. The stimulus REVERSED the collapse.

In Jan 2011, the GOP takes the House and SURPRISE, they pass no jobs bills, and unemployment increases back to 9.2

GOP Governors are laying off public workers like it is a competitive sport ... and if Democrats don't figure out who the real enemy is, then we'll get to enjoy one of these right wing GOP nut jobs for 4 years, who will continue to dismantle our government.

[scheming daemons]

15. no...the key question is what would it have been without the stimulus?

Mark Zandi of Moody's estimated that it would have reached 12% without the stimulus.

[RaleighNCDUer]

17. But the REAL question is, what would it have been if the stimulus was

the size it needed to be, twice the size it was with none of it tax breaks which NEVER work.

With a decent stimulus it would be no greater than 7.5% today, and the Dems would be sitting pretty.

But no, let's negotiate that away - gotta compromise with the people that crashed the economy, after all.

[JoePhilly]

22. Can you explain how YOUR magic stimulus passes the House and the Senate?

I thin you can't. And I challenge you to try. Forget Obama. YOU are the President.

And before you start to try, let me remind you that when the stimulus passed in Feb 2009, Al Franken was not yet seated. So the GOP can filibuster you.

And then, when you explain how, as President, your MAGIC stimulus plan passes Congress, please also explain how you get it to pass in FEBRUARY 2009.

Again I think, you CAN'T. Because it's impossible. But feel free to try.

And so .... rather than complain about it needing to be bigger ... simply explain how YOU as President get the votes needed.

Should be easy for you. And remember, you need to act FAST. Get your Bigger stimulus passed!! Go!!!

Explain how YOU do it.

Thanks.

[GillesDeleuze]

26. for starters, you actually have to make the case to the public

but thats just for starters

obama capitulated on tax cuts before the debate hit the floor.

[JoePhilly]

27. That's the best you can do ... ??

Come on ... forget what Obama did ... YOU are the President ... you explain how you get the votes.

As I said earlier, I don't think YOU, or the person I responded to can get past what you call "for starters" ... but PLEASE, PLEASE, try.

Well?

Come on, the economy is collapsing, YOU as President want a bigger stimulus, and you need it FAST.

GO!!!!!!!!!

Explain how YOU as President get it. Don't just say "for starters" ... actually do the political math ... where are the VOTES???

Again ... should be easy.

[GillesDeleuze]

36. again, it is easy.

you cant shift the framework of the debate by starting with where you think you have common ground.

obama-lovers pretend like obama comes out swinging and then settles for the votes. but as ezra klein said the other day: if you ALWAYS start with what you think the political realities are, you'll never fundamentally change the debate.

what would republicans do? demand everything they want, right way. then you give up the tiniest ground, inch by inch until you beat them into submission.

in other words, you start with a $4T package (0 tax cuts) and ram it thru Pelosi's house. A real FDR work program.

Then, on to the Senate. But where the baseline for Obama was 33% tax cuts and 1.2 T, the baseline is now $4T and 0 tax cuts. when republicans knock it down to $2T and 20% tax cuts, they can go back to the tea party and claim victory while Obama would have actually saved this economy.

Instead, we got $.8T and 40% useless tax cuts. Great job, chess-negotiater in chief.

What would you have done? Roll over and play dead? Give up medicare and social security for a week of unemployment insurance.

come out swinging. stay on offense. politics 101, son.

[RaleighNCDUer]

32. I pull an LBJ on them. I make it clear to Reid (it already having passed

the Dem majority House) that if he can't whip the Dem Senators into line, he will get NO help from the party in the next election. Lean on him to lean on them. As for the Republicans, I cajole the few monderates, like Snow, and I threaten to shut down military bases, shut off the spigot to the recalcitrant opposition. If you are willing to play hard ball there is ALWAYS a way to get somebody who hates you to vote for you. What are they going to do? Hate me more? Where it will work, I offer to OPEN the spigot, make sure they get credit for the huge new contract going to their state.

Browbeat, bribe, cajole and threaten - THAT is how you deal with people who are immune to reason. Use the bully pulpit, to make sure the public knows who is keeping THEM from getting jobs.

It really ain't rocket science.

[GillesDeleuze]

37. but thats playing hardball! democrats need to capitulate so

the public thinks were nice people!

you get it. fight fire with fire.

[JoePhilly]

18. correct ... and more importsantly would it have turned around at all?

And why ... lacking the stimulus there is no reason for the reversal, or a turn around.

[golfguru]

39. Problem was not stimulus, problem was

how it was applied. Lot of the stimulus money went to support government jobs, federal, state & local. Some money went to infrastructure. Some money went to finance new businesses in green energy area. However none of that contributes to increasing tax revenues for more than a short term. Once the construction is finished, so are the jobs. And government jobs require lot more in paychecks and benefits than is brought in taxes.

If 100% of stimulus had applied to small/medium businesses ALREADY operating profitably via tax incentives, we would have had a booming economy by now. Financing upstart businesses in any area including green energy is extremely risky since majority of new businesses fail.

[GillesDeleuze]

20. the tax cut "stimulus" bill: obama's first capitulation

[JoePhilly]

28. We've just decided that you are President back then ...

Explain how YOU as President pass a larger stimulus bill.

When you do so ... please explain where the Congressional votes come from for YOUR magical stimulus plan.

Go.

[Sherman A1]

13. What if the sun rises in the West?

As much as I would love to see the economy recover & return to it's robust former self... This just ain't gonna happen.

[bemildred]

14. False hypotheticals are so much more comforting than being realistic.

The economy may or may not "improve", but it is not going to put us all to work at a good wage unless the government drops all this impotent babble and starts to do its jpb.

[Cali_Democrat]

16. It won't

The economy will either remain stagnant or fall into recession.

it is what it is. We need structural reform and we're getting more Reaganomics.

[PurityOfEssence]

23. The Republicans will claim it as a victory for their policies and Obama won't contest it

What's so hard to understand?

They will do everything they can to fuck him, and claim that any good results are of their doing. Obama, ever needy to be loved by everyone, will let them get away with it.

By the way, it's not going to happen: the economy is fucked and getting worse.

[woo me with science]

24. Oh my fucking god.

He is pushing for massive spending cuts, and you seriously expect the economy to IMPROVE?


He is sinking this ship because his corporate Masters are more interested in filling their own pockets than in our ability to feed our children.

People need to wake the fuck up. He is a Third Way Democrat working for the banks, not us.

[GillesDeleuze]

25. ^^ this.

we need about $2T. in stimulus.

[santamargarita]

31. That Rat Fuck Bush would get the credit

[Safetykitten]

34. It's not.

[Enrique]

38. then we might conclude that conservative economic policies work

extending the Bush tax cuts, drastic cuts in spending is the solution to economic problems.

I'm not expecting this to happen.