Mr. President: Call. Their. Bluff

[Tom Rinaldo]

As it stands Republicans believe that they have nothing to lose and much to gain by bluffing you in debt ceiling negotiations. Their poker faces are super glued on, they know this routine well by now. It's all about power. As long as they win in the end they don't care how ridiculous their bargaining position may seem to those who are really paying attention now. They count on most people not paying close attention, but most of all they count on you caving.

Republicans are counting on enough Congressional Democrats falling in behind you to provide you with political cover when you cave. After all, many of them answer to the same corporate masters as they do. Republicans are counting on you concluding that the left wing of the Democratic Party has no where else to get but to support you in 2012, even after you cave to Republicans, even though that breaking point is upon us. And simply put, Republicans are counting on you caring too much about the future economic health of this nation to let the United States default on it's debts. And so Republicans feel comfortable blackmailing you now, fully expecting you to cave.

Their are things far worse than temporarily defaulting on loans. Creeping fascism is one of them. An American corporate oligarchy would be worse than America temporarily defaulting on our loans. Bleeding the middle class dry would be worse, and de facto signing the death warrants of thousands of Americas poor would be far worse as well. Not to mention disillusioning an entire generation of Americas youth who you personally pulled into the political process in 2008. That would be worse also.

But the truth is the Republicans are more fearful of America defaulting on its debt than even you are Mr. President. For they are directly beholden to large business interests who would suffer should that happen, so they won't let that happen. They can't bite the hand that props them up with untold billions when all the facts scream against them. Enough Republicans will sign on to raising the debt ceiling for it to pass if you call their bluff Mr. President. The Chamber of Commerce will see to that.

The fact that the national Republicans are willing to crawl so far out on their "no increased taxes, no closed loopholes" branch is directly attributable to their confidence that you will cave in to them if they just hang tough. It is time to saw off that branch. Call their bluff. That is what your country needs from you now. You were elected as a Democrat Mr. President. It is time to remind this nation of what a real Democrat stands for.

[Parker CA]

1. Great post. Your 4th and 5th paragraphs in particular really nail it. K&R!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. How I hope he will call their bluff...

But I am not very hopeful.

He has caved too many times for me to be hopeful.

I so hope I will be proved wrong!

Recommended.

[yurbud]

3. calling the GOP bluff on a budget battle was the best thing Bill Clinton did and it earned him

political capital.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. Exactly, and the converse also

When people conclude that you don't believe in your core values enough to fight hard for them, they begin to suspect that maybe the other side is right after all.

[yurbud]

8. yep, stupid people think whoever shouts loudest, most confidently, and digs in their heels

Must be right.

[annabanana]

5. This one is for all the chips, Mr. President.

Call their bluff on behalf of ALL Americans.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. That's not an overstatement

The income of average Americans is dropping, public workers are under attack. Republicans have their daggers pointed at the heart of our New Deal bedrock, one of the key turning points in American history. The gates of social mobility are slamming and we are on the verge of becoming a rigid class economy with all power vested in the upper class. all of the marbles are in play.

[applegrove]

7. Yup......

fight!

[ClarkUSA]

9. So far, that's what he's been doing. I'll trust his political instincts. They've carried him far.

President Obama's news conference tomorrow will no doubt deliver a whuppin' to Republican hides.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. They got the Bush tax cuts renewed last time there was a brinksmanship showdown

It does the President no harm for him to be able to point out that his own base is at least as determined as the tea partiers. If anything it helps get the point across to the Republicans that Obama can't afford to fold even if he wanted to. They see power in those terms.

[stevenleser]

10. You're #4 and #5 paragraphs are wrong. Big business would rather keep their taxes low and default

on the national debt. Just like with the latest downturn, the wealthy, i.e., those who own the businesses, did just fine.

We have no cards to play here. The Republican base is telling their representatives that they dont want the ceiling raised and they want us to default on our debt. Republicans in the House win by doing nothing. It energizes their base and hurts Obama since he is ultimately going to be held accountable for the economy.

[Hippo_Tron]

11. I don't think Wall Street wants the markets to drop due to panic

Except for the people who are primarily invested in commodities. I think they will put some pressure on the Republicans to moderate their position. But by moderate, I mean that they will accept cuts at levels also acceptable to the White House. Anybody who thinks we're getting tax increases on the wealthy out of this, is dreaming.

[stevenleser]

12. But think about it, markets come back. The taxes are the more constant and they want those low.

in the meantime, the wealthy will buy up stocks and properties at a discount and once again, when the economy comes back, they will have made a fortune.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. The super wealthy like the certainty of steady sailing on calm seas

They perfect the status quo to their liking and like it kept that way, because as long as that status quo holds they know they will prosper undisturbed. Sure during times of panic and crisis there is always an opening for some to join the ranks of the super wealthy by dancing nimbly through the wreckage, but back in 1927 there really were big bankers jumping out of windows on Wall street also.

The super rich are greedy and for the most part always strive to keep their money working to make them richer, so they tend to be highly leveraged. They like to pick their gambles carefully and control their downside. I know one such person through a business connection. He told me there really was near panic in 2008 when it looked like we were heading toward another Depression.

Here's the thing. That Republican base you talk about, those are the ones who are most angry about the last round of government bail outs of Wall street. Yes the special interests got their heads spun round so that they focused their anger on government and not on Wall Street, but if the economy crashes again there is neither the money left nor the political will present on the left or on the right to bail out the super wealthy and their institutions again. The people living well on the upper floors of a house of cards don't want strong winds blowing on it.

If the U.S. defaults because of Republicans holding to extreme rigid ideology, it will not only destabalize the world economy, it will prove that Republican ideology sabatogued our economy for the second time in four years, right before a Presidential election.

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. If it comes down to the U.S. defaulting because the GOP won't stop tax subsidies on Big Oil

... or any similiar ridiculous scenario the public will end up furious with the Republican Party in the 2012 elections. Even as it stands now, a large majority of the public still blames Bush for this recession, not Obama. It is obvious that the Democrats have agreed to massive cuts in spending. If the Republicans torpedo raising the debt ceiling over an obsessive no tax stance that defies common sense and hinges on protecting companies that pay no taxes and outsource jobs, they will be exposed and blamed for what follows. The blowback would be fierce.

And while some speculators may benefit by mass market turbulence, major corporate institutions do not, and the Chamber of Commerce is very much opposed to a default scenario.

[Chan790]

19. I can confirm as well...the financial PTB are also very very very opposed.

Investment firms, insurers and banks are risk-adverse by nature, you can guess what their opinion of fiscal sabotage would be.

Does Wall St. and the USCoC have the means and power to figuratively destroy the Tea Party or the moron wing of the GOP on the behalf of the people they take orders from? Yes, I think they do. They're waiting for a capitulation from the WH...when it becomes obvious that none is forthcoming and the President is willing to ride the default wave into oblivion and take them with him...they'll force the GOP to make the best deal available. What we've got to do is make sure that the Democratic offer rolls back towards sanity as the GOP rushes to compromise. We'll have to give a little but we'd better not give a lot. It's a bum horse trade...we'll get (some) tax increases but likely have to give (some) social-welfare spending.

[verges]

15. Amen. nt

[annabanana]

16. kick. . .n/t

[Jakes Progress]

18. You are right that the repubs have the weakest hand on this.

So if we cave, what would that tell us?

[FiveGoodMen]

21. It would tell us that some of 'us' are really some of 'them'.

I won't mention any names, I'll just look toward the White House and whistle.

[RoryK]

20. Heartily Recommended.

Your president is facing a group of bullies, and we ALL know the proper response to those.

[RoryK]

32. I can't re-recommend?

Pity, as I absolutely support your president in his efforts against political thuggery.

[bertman]

22. REC. The President already started this whole budget deficit thing on the wrong foot.

We are suffering from a revenue deficit caused by our failure to tax the wealthy and corporations at rates that are fair and necessary for this nation to survive fiscally. By acting as if the budget deficit is due to the social service programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and others the President started the negotiations in the hole. Cut military spending. Bring our troops home. $3 TRILLION and counting gone down the fucking drain or into the pockets of the corrupt and the MIC while our service members are dying and being maimed is despicable. Our corporations are dodging their taxes left and right while you and I are busting our asses to survive. That this President did not even mention these elements and TRY to rally Americans to do the right thing was just cowardly. This tough talk he's handing out now is just part of the show. We will be screwed by the time it's all said and done. I lost confidence in this man over a year ago.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Why are people assuming that he's NOT fighting? We don't know what's going

on behind closed doors.

[Tom Rinaldo]

26. I'm not making any assumptions

You are right we don't know what's going on behind closed doors etc.

I am just stating my opinion about something that I feel strongly about. If nothing else it never hurts to have a strong wind at your back blowing you toward where you need to go.

[Sportsguy]

24. Very Good Tom

I agree. Wish I had your way with words.

[MikeMc]

25. Prez O. gave a good presser today, Tom. NT.

On edit, +1, thanks.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. I agree. That's what we need and more of it. I was glad he did. n/t

[MikeMc]

33. It was poorly covered by corp. media around Western PA.

NBC broadcast affiliate just ignored the president, and continued running Wimbledon.
ABC covered the speech 'til noon, then cut to local news.
CBS ran the whole thing.

He sure can speak when he puts his mind to it, unlike l'il bush. Funny how media fell all over themselves covering W., and he was barely coherent and functionally illiterate.

[certainot]

28. heads of GOP, limbaugh and hannity, been saying 30 hrs a week that defaulting will be no catastastro

phe- no big deal. they are already calling those in GOP who would raise the debt ceiling, traitors.

all GOP politicians ride the limbaugh bandwagon and to vote to raise the debt ceiling means he will bring some teabagging/dittohead shit down on them and they know it.

this would never have gone this far if the left had been challenging the radio monopoly instead of ignoring it. hell this whole disaster could have been avoided.

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. True, but if we hang tough there will be enough Republican votes to pass it.

Some Republicans will get promised big money support for their reelection if they vote the way the Chamber wants them too. And some Republicans will be told to walk the plank if need be. Some Republicans understand that a default caused by their obstructionism will result in full blame for what follows falling on Republicans heading into the elections.

And it is possible that most of the economic fallout from a default could be reversed if the House quickly reverses itself and ups the debt ceiling after all. The presasure on them to do that would be tremendous - and I think they would but by then Republicans will have taken a major hit. They would be far better off accepting some face keeping deal and bragging about having forced Democrats to seriouisly trim the budget heading into the elections.

Rush and the like make a living off being flamboyant. They'll be fine either way. But if Obama calls their bluff, Republicans will be hurting because you are right; deep splits in their current coalition will be open and raw.

[certainot]

30. one of today's main talking points on limbaugh and then hannity was that obama's 'porkulous' bill

included incentives for exec jet purchases, so they claim he's being hypocritical for using it now to go after the GOP, not mentioning it was the GOP demanding it in the first place.

it's a great eg of the talk radio blowhards, with call screeners to protect them, always getting it both ways. and with their volume and repetition i would take nothing for granted.

but i like your analysis and hope you're right.

[Hand_With_Eyes]

37. It's called 'Message dicipline'

They are all playing off the same script. They are playing a brinkmanship bluff.

[sulphurdunn]

31. I don't think President Obam

is much of poker player. I don't think he knows how to recognize a bluff or how to call one. I think he'd be more likely to fold a royal flush to a pair of deuces gone all in. Americans are poker players not chess players. Our President would make a superb European head of state. Any traditional American head of state would bust the opposition if he had a winning hand and call it a bipartisan agreement. Obama has a winning hand. The Republicans have a pair of deuces.

[erickregger]

34. With all due respect to the OP...

...progressives need to call Obama's bluff. Stop thinking that he's on our side and working for our interests. HE. IS. NOT. If you want to know whose interests Obama is working for, just look at his campaign donors. This goes for ANY politician, regardless of party affiliation. Never forget it, unless you want to be duped again.

In the meantime, do a google search of Tom Furgeson's Investment Theory of Politics.

[cstanleytech]

35. I believe he will be calling their bluff.

He seems to know that the whole nation is going to be screwed if he doesnt do things like closing the loopholes that the wealthy and corporations are exploiting in order avoid paying their share of their taxes while the majority of us have still have to pay our share.

[defendandprotect]

36. Why are we begging and pleading with a Democratic president to do the right thing?

[defendandprotect]

38. kr