Are we in the double dip? And is it time to start to panic?

[BernieSandersIsGod]

The economy seems to be stalling. I believe this is what the republicans wanted and this is what they're getting.

[msongs]

1. this "Titanic" has no captain unfortunately nt

[Rosa Luxemburg]

38. the problem is the iceberg not the captain

[Speck Tater]

2. What used to be called "dip" is now the new normal. Get used to it. nt

[Dark]

3. Sigh. No and no.

We're in a liquidity trap. Basically, everyone's hoarding money, because they don't know if they'll lose their jobs/businesses don't know when things will pick up.

The answer is massive government spending (1.5 to 2 trillion dollars) that won't happen. The massive growth in the stock market we saw won'tcontinue -- instead, it will (maybe already has reached a) plateau, like Japan during the 1990s. So, as the middle class gets back in to the 401k deal, they won't make back their losses in 2008.

As for the republicans, they don't want an economic collapse, as many would blame it on them. They want a stagnating economy they can blame on the Whitehouse.

[razorman]

4. Yes. Now is the time to panic.

[Ichingcarpenter]

5. Don't Panic

the answer is 42

[vaberella]

6. Evidence?! n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

9. Recent data points to evidence of an economic slowdown

ADP shows that only 38,000 jobs were created in May. That's down from an estimate of 190,000. As this number was released, investment banks lowered their BLS non farm job creation estimates. Keep in mind that BLS numbers can vary wildly from ADP number so they could very well show 200,000+ job growth. However, when looking at the ADP numbers in conjunction with other economic indicators, an economic slowdown appears to be the case.

ADP shows that only 38,000 jobs were created in May:

http://www.fxtimes.com/fundamental-updates/us-adp-employment-change-strongly-undershoots-forecasts-for-may-nfp-to-follow/

ISM Manufacturing Index plunged today to lowest level since Sep 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/timberrrrr-manufacturing-ism-lowest-lehman-bankruptcy

Chicago PMI fell sharply in May:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/kbc-news-picks/2011/06/01/

Also keep in mind that US GDP growth numbers in the first quarter were cut to 1.8% not too long ago. Also, the US economy needs to add 130,000+ jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. We're barely adding that as it is. At the current pace, it would take many years to just get back the jobs we lost from the great recession.

If we are in a double dip, we won't know for sure until late this year because of the lag time when the US government reports GDP numbers. GDP is really a backward looking indicator, the numbers I posted above are much more current because they are May numbers.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Cali_Democrat]

12. The problem is that we need real structural reform of the economy

which we're not getting. The only thing that's really been done is that the Fed has introduced more liquidity.

[ClarkUSA]

22. Wrong. The problem is the Teabagger House is blocking every single economic initiative by the WH.

We all know why, too. They want to cause the economy to worsen so they have a chance of winning the Presidency back by next year. Republicans are also introducing uncertainty into the market by refusing to raise the debt ceiling and via Ryan's budget obstructionism.

The economy has been turning around quite nicely until May's numbers (outside of the housing market, whose numbers took a big hit during the terrible winter weather that lasted from December 2010 to the end of March 2011).

[Mimosa]

34. IF people were feeling good about the economy TBggers couldn't pull off trix. n/t

[tekisui]

45. I predicted after the 2010 elections that Dem leaders would be happy

to have a new excuse for their failures. Predictable.

Although, their inability to correct the market (especially jobs) prior to the election is what put the repukes in a position to regain the House.

[Mimosa]

32. ITA with you, Cali. n/t

[ClarkUSA]

21. BS. "recent" = May? Yet hiring hit a FIVE YEAR high this April and a THREE YEAR HIGH last November.

<< At the current pace, it would take many years to just get back the jobs we lost from the great recession. >>

That was always the case, so don't act like this is anything new.

[ClarkUSA]

7. WTF are you talking about? The economy is growing, albeit slowly.

Private sector hiring has been hitting highs not seen since before Bush II's Great Depression hit.

The only expected double-dip may occur in housing, but that is hardly news.

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. 'Private sector hiring has been hitting highs'

Another consequence of labor-market flexibility has been the shift from full-time jobs to temporary positions. In 2010, 26 percent of all news jobs were temporary – compared with less than 11 percent in the early 1990′s recovery and just 7.1 percent in the early 2000′s........ Mac Jobs and Temporary jobs.



Job Growth Falls Well Short Of Estimates

(RTTNews) - Private sector employment in the U.S. increased by much less than anticipated in the month of May, according to a report released by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday, with the report likely to add to recent concerns about the labor market.

ADP said private sector employment increased by 38,000 jobs in May


That sounds really fantastic!! Not


Read more: http://www.rttnews.com/Content/USEconomicNews.aspx?Node...


U.S. home prices have fallen more than in Great Depression

U.S. home prices as measured by the Case-Shiller index have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression, according to Capital Economics.

Paul Dales, senior U.S. Economist at Capital, said the Case-Shiller index released earlier on Tuesday — which tracks prices of single-family home in 20 major U.S. cities — are now 33% below the 2006 peak and back at a level last seen in the third quarter of 2002, edging out the 31% dip seen in the Depression of the 1930s.

“On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first fell,” Mr. Dales said.

“The similarities between the current downturn and that seen during the Great Depression are striking,” Mr. Dales said in a note. He pointed out that on both occasions, prices initially fell by 31% and, after a temporary rebound, dropped back by 7%, the dreaded double-dip.


http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/31/u-s-home-p ...

[ClarkUSA]

16. In November 2010, it jumped to a three-year high, was up in February and hit a 5-yr high in April.

Now, analysts said it "slumped" in May, although 38,000 jobs is welcome news compared to the 700,00 jobs lost/mo. under Bush II.

Not every month is bound to me a record-breaker. Funny how few lauds the record-breaking months but 38,000 jobs in May brings out baseless fearmongering.

Again, the only "double-dip" is in the housing market which is hardly a surprise. Did anyone think otherwise?

Furthermore, there is no evidence of a double-dip recession.

The OP has yet to answer my request for evidence, BTW. I doubt I'll see any.

[woo me with science]

42. "Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43239586


Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff
Published: Wednesday, 1 Jun 2011 | 2:09 PM ET
By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News


The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.

"It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently," said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.

"US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing."

"And that’s just in the last week and a bit," said Riddell.

(more at link)

[Eagle Mall]

10. Not even close, but that doesn't stop Chicken Littles from popping up daily.

[golfguru]

13. ADP: U.S. Added Fewer Workers in May

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/adp-estimates-u-s-companies-added-38-000-employees-in-may.html

[Safetykitten]

14. It's obvious the catastrophic numbers are getting in the way of the happy talk.

Look for a slow slide, then quite a ride down this fall. Say October/November.

Then the usual, "Who could of foreseen this? This was unexpected!"

[ClarkUSA]

17. Bullshit. 38,000 jobs added in May = "catastrophic"?? What credible economist has said that?

What'd you say after the FIVE-YEAR HIGH in private sector hiring this April? Or the THREE-YEAR HIGH last November? Or the fact that numbers were up in February?

It's obvious that some people are not looking at the big picture or acknowledging the facts.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Vanje]

24. THIS /\

is an incisive, and devastating argument! You have truly vanquished your opponant ................(not)

[Vanje]

15. Home and property prices are still falling.

A Real Estate plunge started this thing, and its still plunging fast.

[ClarkUSA]

18. That's no surprise. No one has expected anything different for years.

<< A Real Estate plunge started this thing, and its still plunging fast. >>

A recession was in effect up until the Great Depression II, which actually began with Lehman-Brothers' failure in September 2008.

Since President Obama has been in office, it's undeniable that the US economy has slowly turned around. There is ample unbiased evidence for that.

[Vanje]

23. Not where I live.

No recovery here.

[ClarkUSA]

25. It is where I live. However, we digress. I'm talking in general economic terms.

So is the OP, only he has refused to back up his concern with evidence, probably because he has none.

See my reply here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=682572&mesg_id=682740

Just curious, where do you live (region, state)?

[Vanje]

26. Where is that

rarified place where happy days are here again? Maybe somewhere near the Beltway?

[ClarkUSA]

27. No. I see you live in rural Idaho from your profile.

<< rarified place where happy days are here again? >>

I never said that, did I? Spare me the obnoxious sarcasm.

[Doctor Hurt]

20. Simmer down

No double dip.

[DCBob]

28. and you no doubt would be leading the way.

thanks for the heads up. ;)

[JoePhilly]

29. This is about the 6th or 7th prediction of the double dip over ...

the last few years.
At some point, this prediction, like the end of the world predictions, will be right.

Maybe the 7th time is the charm.

[Eagle Mall]

47. or maybe the fools will just be wrong, once again.

[paulk]

30. the numbers point to it

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa81cf92-8c3f-11e0-b1c8-00144feab49a.html#axzz1O48rR6gg


Back towards a US double-dip

By Robert Reich

Published: June 1 2011 12:51 | Last updated: June 1 2011 12:51

"The US economy was supposed to be in bloom by late spring, but it is hardly growing at all. Expectations for second-quarter growth are not much better than the measly 1.8 per cent annualised rate of the first quarter. That is not nearly fast enough to reduce America’s ferociously high level of unemployment. The labour department will tell us on Friday whether the jobs situation improved in May, but there has been no sign of a surge in hiring. Nor in wages. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees – who make up 80 per cent of non-government workers – dropped to $8.76 in April. Adjusted for inflation, that’s lower than they were in the depths of the recession.

Meanwhile, housing prices continue to fall. They are now 33 per cent below their 2006 peak. That is a bigger drop than recorded in the Great Depression. Homes are the largest single asset of the American middle class, so as housing prices drop many Americans feel poorer. All of this is contributing to a general gloominess. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence is also down.


The recovery has stalled. It is unlikely that America will find itself back in recession but the possibility of a double dip cannot be dismissed. The problem is not on the supply side of the ledger. Corporate profits are still healthy. Big companies continue to sit on a cash hoard. Large and middle-sized companies can easily borrow more, at low rates. The problem is on the demand side. American consumers, who constitute 70 per cent of the total economy, cannot and will not buy enough to get it moving. They justifiably worry that they will not be able to pay their bills, or afford to send their children to college, or to retire. Banks, with equal justification, are reluctant to lend to them. But as long as consumers hold back, companies remain reluctant to hire new workers or raise the wages of current ones, feeding the vicious cycle. "


a real lack of argument that it isn't happening in this thread....

[Mimosa]

31. I believe Reich more than the people who trash other DUers.

Darn, it's getting ugly around here.

[totodeinhere]

37. Just because we have a Democrat in the White House some people around here refuse to take off their

rose colored glasses. If we had this same scenario with a Republican many of today's naysayers would be on the other side of the issue.

I too trust Reich's analysis. Am I happy about it? No, of course not but burying my head in the sand and denying it won't help matters.

[BernieSandersIsGod]

35. Well i'm in panic mode now. NT

[Enrique]

33. respond forcefully, don't panic

first step: SAY SOMETHING about it. We'll see if that happens, maybe some reporter will ask someone in the government about it.

[RBInMaine]

36. May was mainly an over-reaction to oil prices, plus storms. Chill out. No double dip.

[paulk]

43. I don't see how those factors effect the housing market

which is in a double dip - as the article from Reich points out. The housing industry often is a leading indicator for the direction of the economy.

[lunatica]

39. Sure. Let's all panic right now. What kind of panic should we all start?

LOL!

[golfguru]

40. Ask the 20 million without jobs, and millions being foreclosed

I will bet my bottom dollar most if not all are in panic.

[lunatica]

41. I'm responding to the silly OP about whether we should panic now

I've been through a year where I had to declare bankruptcy and couldn't make my mortgage payments and was swept up in the foreclosure crap. There's no need to lecture me.

[golfguru]

44. Sorry about your foreclosure

How can I be lecturing you if I had no clue you were
subject to the humiliation of foreclosure? My comment
was for the general public being foreclosed.

I know I would be in panic if I was being foreclosed out of
my house which is every man's castle. You are to be praised
for not panicking in spite of foreclosure & bankruptcy.

Good luck to you.

[JVS]

46. It looks like some very serious people blew off Paul Krugman a bit too much.