Indicators we should be looking at in order...

[Badfish]

to judge if a recovery is happening ?

A certain group of people just love to tell us all how there is NO RECOVERY , but when asked what indicators we should look at they disappear.

Just the act of asking for indicators will cause people to unrec for some reason , perhaps an issue DU should look at.

Here is the thread for that. Post the indicators here.

[rfranklin]

1. The stock market has recovered...but jobs have not...

We have lost millions of jobs that provided middle class salaries. Those jobs are never coming back. And there will be no "recovery" in that sense.

As America limps to the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the middle class that once formed its core strength seems to be in tatters. The manufacturing jobs that once helped millions get ahead have been in sharp decline for a decade, and now number one-third less than they did in 2000, despite a growing population. Wages have fallen as jobs have migrated overseas, with the typical family's income, after inflation, down 5 percent since 2000. News headlines warn that the middle class is becoming "extinct" or being "wiped out of existence." Elizabeth Warren, the head of the government's new financial watchdog agency, has been warning of a middle-class meltdown for a decade, and said recently that "the system is broken and it's crushing families all across this country."

The rhetoric may be overheated, but the latest data confirms that the middle class is in a rut, to say the least. The total number of middle-income families has stayed relatively steady over the last several years, but with population growth, there are proportionately fewer middle earners today than there were 10 years ago. Compared to the year 2000, the middle-income bracket is about 4 percent smaller than it might otherwise be, after adjusting for population growth and inflation. And the low-income bracket is about 7 percent bigger. Still, incomes typically fall during a recession, and it's oversimplistic to say that everybody leaving the middle class is permanently consigned to something worse. Plus, many longer-term gains in living standards are still in place. So while the middle class is clearly under stress, millions of Americans are still much better off than they were 20 or 30 years ago.

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2010/10/15/how-the-middle-class-is-shrinking

To search every economic report for "green shoots" is foolish. It is beyond this President (or any other President) to bring back the jobs that created a large middle class. The high wage manufacturing jobs are fewer and fewer. The IT jobs are in India or we've imported Indians to do them here. Are economy is too heavily based on Wall Street and the roll of the loaded dice. The top one percent have hoarded all the gains in productivity over the past thirty years.

Dealing honestly with these realities is essential but that too many are trying to paper over the mess that our economy has become. It will lead to no happy ending.

[Badfish]

3. Jobs are recovering right now.

but I see your point , the jobs are lower paying.

Does that make sense to you ? ..that during a large bubble the wages might also be inflated ?

And once the bubble pops the wages also come down ?

Indicators.

1. wages

[rfranklin]

4. No, pay has been flat for thirty years...

as the top one percent have taken all the gains of productivity.

[Badfish]

5. that has nothing to do with the recovery.

more of a long term issue that never gets addresed.

[Badfish]

2. Come on guys...

We are told we can't look at...

Job Creation
GDP Growth
The Market
Consumer Confidence

What can we look at

[rfranklin]

7. Go ahead, look at job creation...

Plenty of new low paying jobs. It's the new normal. I just responded to an opinion piece in the local paper where the Chamber of Commerce president was claiming that public employees were somehow not middle class but something above that. He was redefing middle class downward. Instead of union jobs being held as the standard for good jobs, they are trying to convince us that jobs with lousy benefits, or none, and lower pay are the gold standard.

[fasttense]

6. It's a matter of degrees.

Take a look at the average hourly/weekly earnings of our workforce. There is an increase but it is in pennies. A penny increase over 3 to 4 months does not indicate a recovering economy. Especially if you included "real" inflation (not the silly numbers put out by our government that excludes food and energy costs increases - I know of no one who can survive without buying some amount of food or energy.)

If average earning were to increase by 10% or more in a month regularly, I would say you have a real recovery.

Just because the rich are getting richer does not mean you have a recovery that has trickled down to the rest of us. Just because a CEO excretes out a minimum wage, no benefits crappy job, does not mean it is a recovery for us.

[Badfish]

8. OK...

I see wages brought up 3 or 4 times.

Is it possible that wages in a bubble will be higher than the wages after the bubble pops ?

1.Wages

We can only look at wages

[Dawgs]

9. Easy. Once you see the wealth gap shrink, instead of grow, you will have your indicator.

Until then, all of us in the bottom 98% are fucked.

[Badfish]

10. I disagree.

The wealth gap is a ongoing problem that never gets addresed , it's been around for decades.

Nothing to do with this recovery.

We could be pushing 0% unemployment and massive GDP growth and still have a wealth gap.

[RandomKoolzip]

31. Yes, there has always been a wealth gap...

But it's never been THIS huge before. What we have now is ludicrous - and unsustainable.

[fasttense]

11. BINGO! Dawgs, you are right on the money.

Though you could have a recovery without a wealth gap, if the wealth gap decreases then you are for sure in a recovery for all.

As shredded and weak as our current economy is and as large as the wealth gap is, I really doubt this American society could pull off a real recovery without using the horded wealth at the top.

To pull off a real recovery without the horded trillions at the top would mean the middle class would be driving the new economy. But where is the middle classes wealth to pull this off? We have lost the value of our houses, we have lost our retirement funds, we have lost the majority of our upper middle class jobs, we have lost our manufacturing base. Where exactly would the wealth come from to support a nation wide recovery if we do not touch the wealth horded by the corporate aristocracy?

The wealth at the top will have to decrease to pull off a real recovery.

[Badfish]

12. LOL.

So , we can't look at any of the usual indicators ?

We have to judge the current recovery on when the wealth gap that has existed for decades upon decades starts to tighten ?

Thanks for the laugh.

[Dawgs]

14. THIS wealth gap has NOT existed for decades.

And, it will only get worse as long as Republicans are in charge.

[fasttense]

15. Glad I could amuse you Badfish.

But really the wealth gap in the past, during our booming economy before Raygun, was pretty small in comparison to today.

I'm not saying the wealth gap will disappear, I'm just saying that as huge as it is, it is adding to the problem. Some of that real wealth will have to come down to the rest of us if a real recovery is to happen. The middle class has no wealth to fuel this recovery. It will have to come from the corporate aristocracy.

After Hoover realized he was in a Depression, he upped the tax on the rich to about 90%, and he was a RepubliCON. Without that, I seriously doubt America would have made it out of the Depression.

We have seen no tax increase on the rich. Until that happens, we will not recover.

[mkultra]

23. true, but nothing to do with economic recovery

[dmallind]

13. The honest answer, which will unlikely be given

Doomers are invested in their failure-dreams, and will never be satisfied without unemployment under 2% and a minimum wage of $25+. You only have to watch them piss all over the Clinton miracle to know that UE well under 4, surging GDP, budget surpluses and plummeting poverty rates are not nearly enough for them to acknowledge gains. How do you expect sanguine acceptance of the incremental steps of a painful recovery that is way below that and hasn't really hit jobs significantly even yet?

[Dawgs]

16. Nice straw man.

The reality is that many of us base our opinions on facts.

Have you been paying attention to Wisconsin at all? Do you not see what the Koch brothers and their Republican friends are doing to this country?

Their is zero evidence that good jobs will be created any time soon. There is only evidence that most of the newly created jobs have been low paying crappy ones.

Now if you want to stick your head in the sand and pretend that all will be fine because you have the President you want, go for it. I'm going to continue to live in the real world.

[Badfish]

18. The wealth gap has existed through a few recessions.

It was never used in the past to judge a recovery.

Recoveries have come and gone and the wealth gap still remains.

I wonder why the doomers refuse to look at the usual indicators ? ... I think we all know the answer to that.

[Dawgs]

19. Interesting you respond to my post but ignore #15 that proves you are wrong.

We have NEVER had a wealth gap like this with a recession like this, right?

[Badfish]

20. You were talking pre reagan , thats why Ignored it.

there have been recessions since Reagan , and the recoveries were always measured by the same indicators but forthis recession we can't look at those indicators ?

[Dawgs]

21. Nice try, but there hasn't been a recession this bad since the great depression.

And, you shouldn't ask a question if you don't like the answers.

[Badfish]

26. so ?

All the recessions since the great depression had their recoveries measured the same way , looking at the same indicators.

Why not this one ?

Just cause it was deeper doesn't mean shit.

[BobbyBoring]

22. We're in uncharted waters.

There's always been a wealth gap but this one is different. GWBs final fuck you to the American people was TARP and Obama followed along. There's only so much money and what's happened is the government took OUR MONEY and gave it to the banks and a few people STUCK IT IN THEIR FUCKING POCKETS.

In 2010 Wall St bonuses were 20.7 BILLION. When you have a greedy few sucking up all the money, there can be no recovery. Every dollar these pukes take is a dollar someone else would spend.

Where's Robin hood when you need him.

[Badfish]

27. You couldn't be more wrong.

"There's only so much money and what's happened is the government took OUR MONEY and gave it to the banks and a few people STUCK IT IN THEIR FUCKING POCKETS."

First off , the TARP money was paid back.

Second off , the banks didn't stick it all, in their pockets , they loaned it out and made a mountain of profit from it , then repaid the loans

[Clio the Leo]

17. My fave: "Exports fuel US manufacturing surge"

Exports fuel US manufacturing surge

By Alan Rappeport in New York
Published: March 1 2011 15:58 | Last updated: March 1 2011 15:58
Growing global demand has fuelled a surge in US manufacturing activity, which last month accelerated at its fastest rate in almost seven years, according to the Institute of Supply Management.

ISM’s manufacturing index rose from 60.8 per cent to 61.4 per cent in February, beating economists’ expectations and reaching its highest level since May 2004. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/baf0c1bc-4419-11e0-8f20-00144feab49a.html


Of course, I have my theories on a major factor in that....

[slackmaster]

24. I just heard on NPR that traffic in the most congested areas of the US is up 11% over last year

Because of the improving economy; and that it's only going to get worse.

Los Angeles passed New York City as having the worst congestion.

[last_texas_dem]

25. I won't argue with the claim that,

by many of the traditional indicators used to assess economic growth, a recovery has taken/is taking place.

The bottom line, though, is that, in the end, when people cast votes regarding economic conditions, they are looking at their own status and those of their neighbors. The stock market can be experiencing major growth and the national unemployment rate falling, but if people are still unemployed, beyond unemployed, underemployed, or now working a shit job for shit wages, or know many others who are in such a state, the expert opinion of economists holds little value.

[Badfish]

28. I agree.

people are out for themselves , and there will be a recession till they get theirs.

It's a selfish outlook.

During the USA's best economy ever , there would still be unemployed people calling it a recession because they can't see the larger picture of the state of the union.

[woo me with science]

29. ...

:wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow:

Way to win the confidence of voters who are struggling in this economy...


.

[Exilednight]

30. Here you go

Under the Clinton administration, the wealth gap shrunk (your claim upthread otherwise is either a flat out lie or shows your lack of knowledge on the subject). To his credit, he managed to shrink the wealth gap, not by making fewer people rich, but by pulling people out of poverty.

The middle-class, for the first time in 20 years, began to grow in size, while the number of people living below the poverty line began to recede.

Wages steadily increased, companies offered benefits that were comparable to unions and market prices were stable.

Many mainstream economists are realizing that our current measures for determining recessions are antiquated and need to be revamped.

Some of the measures they are looking at are the number of people living below the poverty line, readjusting the poverty line to show a truer reflection of needs vs cost, the gap between rich and poor and quality of benefits.

[jschurchin]

32. Here is one.

And so the economic "improvement" data takes another big step back after the rumored improvement in claims reverts, following the traditional negative prior revision to 371K, coming at 397K on expectations of 376K.

Keep pumping the "all is well" brother. Tell a lie long enough, and it becomes the truth, worked for the previous administration................well maybe not.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-jump-397k-expectations-376k-prior-revised-368k-371k

[LWolf]

33. My indicators:

Are revenues up in my state? NO.

Do I know fewer unemployed people than I did last year? NO.

Do I know people who have less income than they did last year? YES. I'm one of them; and so are every one of my colleagues who still has a job.

Do I know people who have more income than they did last year? NO.

Has the local job market stabilized? NO.

Has the local real estate market stabilized? NO.

Have we halted the downturn in local population as people move out, leaving to live with families who still have homes, or to try to find work elsewhere? NO.