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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:00 AM
Original message
The silver linings.
From the moment President Obama took office, there has been various efforts to define him by meme.

From this moment until 2012, some people are going to focus solely on Obama and try to define him by meme, and they'll use Democrats to do it. Consider this idiotic WaPo article: How Pelosi's determination could hamper Obama.

Nancy Pelosi has been Speaker since Democrats won in 2006 and through the gains in 2008. She was instrumental in helping the President to secure his policy triumphs. Republicans hate her for that.

Boehner and McConnell have a 14 percent and 12 percent approval rating, respectively

No one in the media is calling Boehner and McConnell divisive.

In 2007, both Reid and Pelosi had higher approvals than those idiots, and no one called for them to step down after they got their butts whipped in 2008.

We know the GOP's goal.

They're hoping that if their characterizations of Barack Obama stick, his Presidency will be seen as a failure.

First order for Democrats, stop allowing Republicans and their media shills to continue vilifying Democratic leaders.

The GOP shills are not going to write history, no more than Bush's people could define his legacy. FDR had his detractors, but they did not define his place in history.

Anyone looking at elections over the last 75 years and didn't prepare for the worse was kidding themselves. Democrats main goal should have been to minimize the damage. It might not be all that apparen, but they did that by keeping the Senate.

Being distraught and harping on the GOP house victory for the next two years isn't going to change anything. Democrats losing 30 or 60 doesn't matter when the other party gains control of the House. The Dems gained only 31 seats in 2006 to control the House (with about the same margin Republicans now hold). Dems gained another 21 House seats in 2008 to increase their majority to 257, which is 17 seats more than the new Republican majority.

Also, unlike 1994 and 2006, the party out of power failed to take control of both chambers of Congress, that is significant. It keeps Republicans at a disadvantage.

Some Democrats are going to blame the President's agenda. Expect the media and Republicans to do the same.

Peggy Noonan asked in a WSJ commentary: Was it worth it?, which is really more of this

The President had a window of opportunity, and decided to take full advantage of it.

As Rachel Maddow commented

<...>

Democrats had a choice when they became the governing party. When they won those last two elections and they took control of the two branches of government that are subject to partisan control in our country, they could have governed in a way that was about accumulating political capital with the primary goal of winning the next election. They could have governed in constant campaign mode.

Or they could have governed in a way that was about using their political capital, not accumulating more of it, about spending the political capital they had to get a legislative agenda done, to tackle big, complex, longstanding problems that had languished.

The record of legislative achievement of the last 21 months was not designed to win the midterm elections and it will not win the midterm elections. The pendulum will swing back toward the Republicans and we‘ll go back to divided government again.

The legislative agenda of the last 21 months was policy, not politics. It was designed to get stuff done for the country. And in that sense, it‘s an investment in long-term political reward, not short-term political reward, as Democrats expect after a list of accomplishments like this to be judged as the party that took on problems when it had the chance, even if they had to pay a short-term political price.

<...>


President Obama and the 111th Democratic Congress racked up historic achievements.

The votes are (mostly) counted. The Republicans have clearly and decisively won. But did the Democrats actually lose?

They lost the election, certainly. And many of them lost their jobs. But the point of legislating isn’t job security. It’s legislation. And on that count the members of the 111th Congress succeeded wildly, even historically.

<...>


And despite the losses, the election had its silver linings: Progressives Caucus remains intact, becomes a plurality of House Dems

In the Senate, 10 of 12 incumbent Democrats won:

  • Arkansas — Blanche Lincoln (lost, not unexpected)
  • California — Barbara Boxer
  • Colorado — Michael Bennet
  • Hawaii — Daniel Inouye
  • Maryland — Barbara Mikulski
  • Nevada — Harry Reid
  • New York — Charles Schumer
  • New York — Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Oregon — Ron Wyden
  • Vermont — Patrick Leahy
  • Washington — Patty Murray
  • Wisconsin — Russ Feingold (lost, heartbreaking)
Democrats retained seat of retiring Democrats in Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal replaces Chris Dodd) and Delaware (Chris Coons replaces Ted Kaufman)

Republican pick ups occured where incumbent Democrats retired or lost the primary:

Illinois
Indiana (Democratic candidate was a House incumbent)
North Dakota
Pennsylvania (up until Arpil 2009, this seat was held by a Republican)

The most telling race of this election cylce was in Nevada. Reid, the Senate face of the Democratic agenda, won despite the predictions.

Mark Blumenthal: Not All Polls Were Wrong In Nevada

WASHINGTON -- In Nevada, polls predicted the wrong winner of this week's Senate election. Or did they? While public media polls in late October consistently gave a slight advantage to Republican Senate challenger Sharron Angle, the internal campaign polls gave Democrat Harry Reid the edge and campaign pollsters on both sides attribute the difference to a combination of greater care in modeling the demographics of the electorate, more persistence in reaching all sampled voters and the added value of registered voter lists.

With 99% of the precincts counted, the Associated Press reports that Reid defeated Angle by five percentage points (50% to 45%), but the public polls told a different story. In Nevada, we logged 15 publicly released surveys fielded in October, and all but two -- including all eight fielded in the last 20 days of the campaign -- gave Angle nominal advantages of between 1 and 4 percentage points. While none of the margins on any one poll was large enough to attain statistical significance, the consistency of the results demonstrates that Angle's advantages did not occur by chance alone. Our final "trend estimate" gave Angle a nearly three-point lead (48.8% to 46.0%) -- enough to classify the race as "lean Republican."

But the internal polls sponsored by the campaigns were telling their clients a different story. The final tracking polls conducted for the Reid campaign showed Reid leading narrowly throughout the fall campaign, according to Reid pollster Mark Mellman. Their final tracking poll, conducted during the final week of October, showed Reid leading by five percentage points. "There was really no point," Melman told me, "where Reid was actually behind in this race."

Gene Ulm, partner at the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, confirms that their surveys for the Angle campaign showed a similar pattern. "We were typically tied in the low to mid 40s -- which as a rule are not good for any incumbent," Ulm said, while several days of tracking showed them "down by single digits."

<...>


Teabaggers to Congressional Republicans: repeal health care or risk severe backlash

That's a silver lining too.


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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
1. No comment? n/t
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
2. Yes the Indiana Democratic Senate candidate was a Democrat from the US House
Edited on Sun Nov-07-10 11:24 AM by LiberalFighter
BUT he didn't run as a candidate for the whole state of Indiana. He ran at best as a candidate from his old district. The 8th District is not the same as all of the districts in Indiana combined.

BUT he didn't run an operation that included field offices in different areas of the state. It was basically out of Indy and maybe down in his home district.

BUT he didn't run an operation that pooled resources with other state-wide candidates.

BUT he didn't get respectable support from quitter Senator Evan Bayh.

BUT he didn't have a very good campaign.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. He was also
Edited on Sun Nov-07-10 11:24 AM by ProSense
a blue dog. They didn't have a good track record this election.

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RBInMaine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
4. MOST of the Obama/Dem agenda is COMPLETE, & R's can't reverse it. So now on to the ECONOMY ! And, if
the GOP decides to block everything again, WE can define THEM more clearly. There is an AWESOME opportunity to actually drive a wedge between the pugs and the people IF we message right. The House Dems have a MADE IN AMERICA MANUFACTURING agenda. Add to that trade reform and continued efforts to stop tax breaks for shipping jobs overseas, and then make the R's look like asshats when they come out against all that. There really is OPPORTUNITY here IF Dems get united in their agenda and their messaging.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Exactly, and
Edited on Sun Nov-07-10 11:44 AM by ProSense
it's not all that clear that Republican can do much about the economy. The notion that they can stop additional stimulus, which couldn't pass anyway, is not going to impact anything.

The President still has options in terms of stimulating the economy, and the policies he put in place are going to begin paying dividends.

Republican Governors are also on the hot seat. What are they going to do?

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Politicub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. Agree 100 percent! It makes me sick that we don't hold the house
but it may work in the Dems favor to have a party to unite against in opposition. We will be able to put dem policies in stark contrast to conservative ideas.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
5. Great post, Pro. They spent their political capital on substance. Rachel's segment before the
election on how LBJ knew he had 6 months after his 64' landslide to get big things done and then be prepared for the backlash - because there always will be one when we do big things. The RW will always freak out and the middle (who doesn't have a strong sense of which philosophy is correct) will always be scared by change (even if they had said they wanted it and they voted for it).

"Go big or go home."

I know people scoff at the Health Reform we got as being "big" but it is - we've been trying for almost a hundred years for it. It's the foundation and will be added to and modified for decades or centuries.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Thanks. n/t
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
8. A Skirmish Lost, A Great Battle Won

A Skirmish Lost, A Great Battle Won

William Saletan has a perspective-stretcher at Slate.com that might get a more receptive reading as a year-ender, but also makes a point worth considering, post-mid terms. As Saletan writes in "Pelosi's Triumph: Democrats didn't lose the battle of 2010. They won it,"

...In the national exit poll, voters were split on health care. Unemployment is at nearly 10 percent. Democrats lost a lot of seats that were never really theirs, and those who voted against the bill lost at a higher rate than did those who voted for it. But if health care did cost the party its majority, so what? The bill was more important than the election.

I realize that sounds crazy. We've become so obsessed with who wins or loses in politics that we've forgotten what the winning and losing are about. Partisans fixate on punishing their enemies in the next campaign. Reporters, in the name of objectivity, refuse to judge anything but the Election Day score card. Politicians rationalize their self-preservation by imagining themselves as dynasty builders. They think this is the big picture.

They're wrong. The big picture isn't about winning or keeping power. It's about using it.

Saletan quotes former Bush speechwriter David Frum to bring it home:

Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now. ... No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the "doughnut hole" and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents' insurance coverage?

Saletan concedes that there will undoubtedly be amendments to the HCR law. He may be understating the case. Boehner and his minions may try to sabotage it, and with some success -- but not without a price.

Saletan adds, "Most bills aren't more important than elections. This one was." He predicts, optimistically,

A party that loses a House seat can win it back two years later, as Republicans just proved. But a party that loses a legislative fight against a middle-class health care entitlement never restores the old order. Pretty soon, Republicans will be claiming the program as their own. Indeed, one of their favorite arguments against this year's health care bill was that it would cut funding for Medicare. Now they're pledging to rescind those cuts. In 30 years, they'll be accusing Democrats of defunding Obamacare.

As for Speaker Pelosi's legacy:

...By the thinnest of margins, they rammed a bill through. They weren't going to get another opportunity for a very long time. It cost them their majority, and it was worth it...And that's not counting financial regulation, economic stimulus, college lending reform, and all the other bills that became law under Pelosi. So spare me the tears and gloating about her so-called failure. If John Boehner is speaker of the House for the next 20 years, he'll be lucky to match her achievements.

Not to diminish the consequences of the electoral rout Dems have just experienced and the challenges that lie ahead in rebuilding a congressional majority. Those for whom electioneering is the end goal of politics will not find much comfort in Saletan's take. But under the leadership of Speaker Pelosi, as much, if not more than President Obama, House Democrats have enacted reforms that will save countless lives and make American society better for millions. As time passes the 2010 mid terms will be viewed in context as a political skirmish, but it's likely that the 2010 HCR law will go down in history as a landmark reform.


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derby378 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-10 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. They won by passing corporatist Republican legislation?
Gee, and here I was told we'd have change we could believe in. Wheeee.
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SidDithers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
9. K&R...nt
Sid
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opihimoimoi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
10. KnR Off to the Greatest Page...#5
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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
11. One silver lining.
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Chan790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
12. Now the past is past...
Edited on Sun Nov-07-10 06:04 PM by Chan790
you're right, we won a lot. (I think we could have won more but that too is in the past.) Let's turn this liberal war machine on the GOP and make every day of the next two years hell for them. The time for infighting over what we can achieve is over; it's time for trench warfare against the enemy of the American people...the orange man.

We won the lest legislative session in Congress, let's win this one in the public arena. Starting today. AFAIK, Johnny Orange hasn't created a single job yet so let's ask him again:

"Hey Boehner, where are the jobs?"
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SeaLyons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
13. K&R
great post
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FBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-10 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
15. K&R for good news.
Edited on Sun Nov-07-10 07:25 PM by FBaggins
N/t
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political_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-10 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
17. K and R.
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