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My Final Senate Predictions--Dems wind up with 53 Senators

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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:33 AM
Original message
My Final Senate Predictions--Dems wind up with 53 Senators
Democrats will win Senate races in:
Hawaii
New York (Schumer)
New York (Gillibrand)
Maryland
Vermont
Delaware
Oregon
West Virginia
California
Connecticut

At this point if the Democrats win those 10 senate seats they will have 50 Senators.

Here are the states which going into tomorrow I believe will be the most competitive:

Washington (some polls show Rossi up by 1 or 2 other polls have Murray up by a couple)
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Illinois
Alaska

I think we will win 2 of those 6: Washington, I think would be the most obvious and that would bring us up to 51 Senators. But I'm also betting on Colorado--where most polls have shown it neck and neck, BUT PPP has Bennet up by 5 in early voting. If Bennet wins, and I think he will, that will bring us up to 52 Senators.

So what about Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Alaska. I actually think the Dems CAN win all four of them, It will come down to GOTV. PPP has Harry Reid leading in early voting by 4 (50/46) However, most polls this month (maybe all but partisan polls) have had Angle ahead by about 4. All the final polls for PA have it at a 3-5 point race for the Republican. Illinois, Kirk is hanging on by about 4 in all the final polls. Alaska, is the most intriguing in that we don't know how a write-in candidacy will fare. Miller has his problems and McAdams is the one gaining ground. PPP shows that Mulkowski is taking about 25% of the Dem vote. However, if it appears that she is fading and that McAdams actually has a chance I think some of those democrats will decide at the last minute to vote for him.

In the end of NV, PA, IL, AK--I think we will win at least one of those four and if we do we end up with 53 Democratic Senators.
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FBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. Better than a sharp stick in the eye any day. n/t
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ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. Is Feingold really a toast?
I still refuse to believe it.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. I hope not, but my feeling is that he will be on the losing end
of course if he wins then it will definitely be a better night for dems than anticipated.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
4. All I Will Say
All I will say that in 06 and 08 when we had the wind at our back we won every close race. We now have the wind at our face. You can infer from that what you want.

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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. very true, but I'm encouraged by some of these early vote totals in some states
like Colorado. If push comes to shove I think we lose PA, IL, and maybe even Nevada. Alaska in my opinion is the wild card.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:47 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. I Can't Opine On Alaska
Edited on Mon Nov-01-10 09:48 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
-because of the fluidity of the race
-the fact that Lisa Murkokski is not on the ballot and to vote for her you literally have to write her name in
-the unreliability of polling in that state

I see a 52-48 Senate.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. You could be right.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. We Can Thank Sarah Palin If When We Hold Delaware And If We Win Alaska
Lisa Murkokski won't commit to canvassing with the Repubs. I think she canvasses with them because it wasn't Republicans in Alaska who threw her under the bus but Palin and the Tea Baggers. Traditional Republicans supported and continue to support her. However if she really wanted to get even with Palin she would canvas with us. This would really make Republicans pissed off at Palin for putting Murkokski in that position...

The drama...
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. No, she has committed to caucusing with the Republians.
She had an ad out today that stated that. It won't do Democrats any good at all to re-elect her, so we have a golden opportunity here to try something new. Alaska had some great Democratic politicians in the early days of statehood and has had many since. There's no reason why we can't send another Democrat to DC. The righties will scream about it, but so what?
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truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. I don't think we'll lose in IL...but Russ I fear is gone...
...and that is far the greater shame...
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
5. I actually think now that Sestak is in trouble
I sense that his debate performances were not strong enough to close the deal.
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PRETZEL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #5
16. The DSCC has been running a radio ad here in the Philly area
the last few days aimed directly at the undecided which I think is going to be pretty effective. Hopefully that will be enough of a push for Joe.
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kick-ass-bob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:43 AM
Response to Original message
7. I'm pissed that DCCC has completely passed on NC
and Elaine Marshall from the very beginning.

She had a chance if she had any sort of support whatsoever.

I'm still hoping here, but it is waning...
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. I agree
early on after the primary polls showed that Marshal had a real chance and Burr was highly unpopular. With the strong African-American vote in NC it never made much sense to me why they wrote NC off from the start. Now it's too late.
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kick-ass-bob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. she was polling a tie about 2 weeks after the primary.
What could have been a better clue than that?

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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #7
22. We ran into that with our 2006 House candidate, Diane Benson
Even this year with Scott McAdams the DSCC hasn't done as much as they could have. They're kicking in here at the end, but Scott's really done most of the work.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-10 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #7
26. The Beltway gang had some lame-ass theory about who they should support
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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
9. Pretty much agree with you but am hoping strong GOTV can turn a few more races.
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ChairmanAgnostic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
15. D: 54, Koch Industries: 14, JP Morgan Chase:22, BofA:7
Accuracy is impotent.
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Cognitive_Resonance Donating Member (733 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 10:04 AM
Response to Original message
17. Spot on analysis. A few thoughts on the competitive list-
Washington-Murray has generally polled ahead of Rossi, and should have the upper hand.

Nevada-Very tight, but two factors work in Reid's favor. The "None of the Above" option should drain a few percent from Republicans too embarrassed to vote for nutjob Angle, but not willing to vote for a Democrat (there are several minor candidates who will also drain votes away from Angle). Latinos have been given a strong incentive to oppose Angle. Even a slight uptick in Latino enthusiasm will have a significant effect.

Pennsylvania-Strong GOTV in Philadelphia and to a lessor extent Pittsburgh should be enough for Sestak to squeak by. The O'Donnell ads in Philadelphia are reported to have hurt Toomey (collateral damage).

Colorado-CO is a blue-trending state. Buck has made enough misogynistic and homophobic statements to repulse the sane voters. I think Bennet can squeak a victory.

Illinois-A blue state, and Pres. Obama's home turf. Another match-up that will be decided by the effectiveness of GOTV efforts.

Alaska-AK is where the action is. ABC reports that the national Republican Party has thrown-in the towel on the ethically deficient hypocrite Miller, and is shifting it's sponsored ads to attack McAdams, the Democrat. That reflects desperation. As a write-in candidate, Murkowski faces an uphill battle as ballots are contested and many inevitably excluded. Keep in mind that 39% of the Alaska electorate voted for Pres. Obama. This race is positioned to be the biggest upset of 2010. If McAdams takes it, the Republicans and their Tea Party sub-brand will be humiliated, and the blame game will become ugly with Sarah Palin in the thick of it.

Just my $0.02
GOTV!
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. For Alaskans, a McAdams victory would kill two birds with one stone
We end the 30-year Murkowski dynasty in the US Senate and we hand Sarah Palin a proxy defeat. It's a win-win for Democrats.
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mikekohr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
18. I see the range from 54-56, with 55 my magic number
Edited on Mon Nov-01-10 10:49 AM by mikekohr
GOTV is key in all the competivie races.

VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN!!!!

mike kohr
Bureau County Democrats (IL)
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com
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rufus dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-10 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #18
27. I am with you, I see it as 55
Outside chance at 56.
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S_E_Fudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
19. I'm gonna be the turd in the pool...
Dems lose 9 seats...Lieberman caucuses with the Republicans to give them control (which wont't mean much since they have had effective control anyway)
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 11:27 PM
Response to Original message
20. In local polls, the undecideds have gone from 6% last week
to 20% this week. That's huge, and I think it works to Scott's favor. Joe's base is static. I really can't imagine that undecided voters are falling his way, and Lisa really hasn't played very well in the past couple of weeks. People on the left and right believe that she's getting special favors from the Division of Elections and she's seemed really angry and desperate in a few of the debates. The last one she dialed it back quite a bit, but those impressions stay with people.

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golfguru Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-10 11:54 PM
Response to Original message
24. Bingo /
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-10 12:03 AM
Response to Original message
25. My Prediction: gotv matters. gotv!
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-10 10:38 PM
Response to Original message
28. Not bad, I think you might turn out to be right
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-10 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
29. You are Nostradamus. You predicted perfectly.
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