That Stubborn Gap

[babylonsister]

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_10/026399.php

THAT STUBBORN GAP.... The top-line results in the new Washington Post/ABC News poll are about what we'd expect given the prevailing political winds -- Republicans are well positioned to make huge gains on Election Day.

But the gap between all Americans and those Americans likely to vote continues to be one of the year's most important trends.

Among registered voters...

* On the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by five points (49% to 44%).

* On which party would do better coping with the nation's problems over the next few years, Democrats lead Republicans by five points (45% to 40%).

* On which party is more trustworthy on the economy, Democrats lead Republicans by five points (47% to 42%).

* On which party better represents your own personal values, Democrats lead Republicans by six points (48% to 42%).

Among likely voters...

* On the generic ballot, Republicans lead Democrats by four points (49% to 45%).

* On which party would do better coping with the nation's problems over the next few years, Republicans lead Democrats by four points (45% to 41%).

* On which party is more trustworthy on the economy, Republicans lead Democrats by four points (47% to 43%).

* On which party better represents your own personal values, Republicans lead Democrats by four points (48% to 44%).

This really isn't complicated. If it were up to the larger population of registered voters, Dems would be poised to do fairly well on Tuesday. But at this point, it's Republicans who plan to show up on Election Day.

—Steve Benen

[glitch]

1. Mistrust the "likely voter" configuration, it is very possibly archaic.

Polls that include cellphones are much more Dem-optimistic as well.

[FrenchieCat]

2. The Media has done as much GOP GOTV as it possibly could.....

the rest is up to all of us.