Another Alaska poll (Rasmussen). SSDD. Miller 35, Murkowski 34, McAdams 27

[FBaggins]

Hmmm... Rasmussen appears to have switched to a paid subscription model for internals.

Yeah... like that's going to happen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2010_state_polls/alaska/crosstabs_alaska_senate_october_13_2010

[AtomicKitten]

1. It would be hilarious if Murkowski beat the teabagger.

Polling in Alaska is notoriously inaccurate, a rASSmussen poll doubly so.

It's official: It's a crapshoot.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

2. The race is not out of reach for McAdams. AK is notoriously hard to poll. nt

[TheWraith]

3. One has to ask, are all of Murkowski's people really going to vote for her?

Winning on a write-in is a long shot. How many of them are going to register support for her in a poll, but when it comes to the ballot box, are going to vote for someone they think can win?

And in that case, how many of those people vote for the Teabagger who beat her versus the Dem challenger?

[Blue_In_AK]

4. If you missed it, please read my post here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9317209


I continue to believe that Murkowski cannot win a write-in campaign. Not everyone is as plugged into the politics as we are. Most people go into the voting booth and vote for one of the names on the ballot. There have been three prior attempts at write-ins here by three popular politicians -- Ernest Gruening, Wally Hickel and Robin Taylor. All three failed.

Taylor's case is particularly instructive here. The Republican nominee that year, John Lindauer, imploded in the time between the primary and the general, much as Joe Miller is doing this year. The Republican Party rapidly put together a write-in campaign for Robin Taylor and actively supported him, but he was still unable to garner enough votes and Tony Knowles became our governor. Many people still voted for Lindauer even though he had been thoroughly disgraced and over 6,000 people misspelled "Robin Taylor" so badly that their intent could not be determined. "Lisa Murkowski" is much more difficult to spell than "Robin Taylor."

Even Wally Hickel, one of the most popular politicians in Alaska's history, couldn't win a write-in campaign. With Scott gaining momentum and Joe going down, I believe that some Democrats who had been planning to write in Lisa to stop Joe will now be motivated to vote their consciences.


This race is anybody's guess, and polling is meaningless.