Is Cell Phone Bias Skewing Polls?

[babylonsister]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/13/is_cell_phone_bias_skewing_polls.html


Is Cell Phone Bias Skewing Polls?


A new Pew Research study finds that not only can landline-only surveys exaggerate the Republican enthusiasm because cell-only users tend to vote more Democratic, but they also may be even more biased than in 2008.

In three of four congressional election polls conducted since spring, estimates from landline-only samples had slightly more Republican support and slightly less Democratic support. One of the polls showed no difference. In the most recent congressional poll, Republicans led Democrats 46% to 45%, among landline-only users who were registered to vote. But when cell-only registered voters were included, Democrats took the lead, 47% to 44%. Among likely voters, Republicans held a 12 point lead among those with landlines only, 53% to 41% but the lead shrinks to seven points, 50% to 43%, when cell-only voters are added.

Jon Cohen: 'While Pew's update to their long-running research on cellphones and surveys isn't a broad rebuke to pollsters who don't interview on cellphones, it raises fresh doubts about the precision of the reams of polling data fueling estimates of what may happen on Nov. 2."

[rpannier]

1. K&R Thanks for posting this

Questions do need to be asked about their validity.
There's a lot of information out there and while I realize it's difficult to run these polls if you include cell phone users, maybe these pollsters should consider running fewer (much fewer) polls so they can concentrate on accuracy -- Hint to the media ACCURACY.
The politics of this society seemed to do fairly well before everything had some damned pollster asking people what they thought of every damned thing out there -- political or otherwise
Professional pollsters are just a bunch of get rich quick frauds

[Sherman A1]

I too think they should run fewer polls

and exclude Republicans. :bounce:

[Sherman A1]

2. delete -- dupe

[Bitwit1234]

3. With the economy as it is a lot of people can't afford land-line

telephones, that's why republicans are more dominant in the polls. A lot of people who vote Democratic buy the throw away kind to use for emergency occasions. How are they counted? I think this polling crap has just about run it's course.

I don't know if you remember or not, but the person picked to win the primary of one of the races in Florida had an overwhelming lead. Then he lost overwhelmingly. So Razzypoops polls was way way way off.

[mstinamotorcity]

4. Who has the tendency to have more land lines

Older voters. When I go to the family farm in the south mostly the older people don't have cell phones unless their children insist they have one. Didn't need a poll to tell me that. Funny how they always poll the things you can already see with your eyes.

[babylonsister]

5. Conversely, I don't own a cell phone and would consider

myself middle-aged. :shrug: I know, I'm living in the last century still.

[mstinamotorcity]

6. You are not living in the last century

You just choose not to have one. nothing wrong with that. I think my point should have been made that polls don't signify every aspect of our lives. And some things we don't necessarily need a poll to tell us what we already see. I did not mean to paint a broad brush on cell phone usage. But I did want to paint a broad brush on polls. I have yet to be solicited by a pollster on my political opinion. And none of my family,friends and co-workers have either and we come from all walks of life. I guess when they get an all walks of life poll then they will call. I have land and cell lines.:hi: :hi: :hi:

[Mojorabbit]

8. I keep a land line for emergencies

ie, after a hurricane or power outage for any length of time cells do not work though texting will but my land line was always open.

[Divine Discontent]

7. it's just so obvious. and was in 2008. even more so now.

I cannot name anyone under 30 I know with a landline.... unless they are living with their parents.

[marlakay]

9. To each his own!

We are 54 & 60 and have cells only and my neighbors across the street don't have a computer. My husband has been printing things out of craigslist for him to buy something.

It's hard for me to relate because I have been on them since the 80's when you had to actually know something to work on them...now the software does most everything...

[pstokely]

10. The pollers probably don't consider people without landlines to be likely voters

Even those with landlines don't answer unknown numbers if they have caller ID

[Jbowers]

13. But didn't pollsters accurately predict the elections in 2008?

Didn't an average of pollsters predict an Obama victory by 7.6% and he won by 7.3%?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[BootinUp]

15. I am not counting on a cell phone skew

but I do think it is harder to handicap the races in a midterm election. If you look at Nate Silvers projections or watch his recent interview on GMA posted around here somewhere, that is basically what he is saying, more uncertainty than 08, (on edit: and turnout is the real question.)

[Manifestor_of_Light]

11. I switched to a cellphone when I moved to the country.

The reception is improving -- there were no towers here until two or three years ago.

I got rid of a listed landline, because in Houston it was a complete nuisance. Most of the calls were boiler rooms, hangups, or static. About one in 20 calls was a live person I wanted to talk to.

And I had to go thru and delete 10 to 20 trash calls a day.

Now I don't have to worry about pest calls. And I am a baby boomer. I occasionally text my daughter. I have the knid with a keyboard that slides out to the side. I don't use it for anything other than calls.

I don't use it in the car either.

I think there is a definite skew towards older Republicans using landlines.

Dad told me about a poll in the 30s that showed Roosevelt losing. Only rich people had phones then so their polls were wrong. Maybe the same thing happened with Dewey & Truman; I don't know.

[marlakay]

12. i hope thats true

and thats when i switched too when we moved to the country. if power goes out in small town every neighbor is there to help for emergencies, once i got snowed in while husband was sick and neighbor plowed my whole driveway so i could get to work!

[Aramchek]

14. of course it is. Landline : Cellular :: Newspaper : Internet

basing polling on a dying technology is beyond dishonest.