Gallup: Latest Generic Congressional Ballot Tied. Republican enthusiasm remains high.

[flpoljunkie]

September 27, 2010

Midterm Election Landscape Still Points to Republican Gains
A summary of Gallup's key indicators to date
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's analysis of key indicators relating to the 2010 congressional midterm elections continues to suggest that the Republican Party will make significant seat gains. President Barack Obama's job approval rating is below 50%, and both congressional job approval and satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. are well below 40% -- all levels that generally predict large seat losses for the party of the sitting president.

Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. 20-26 shows the race tied among all registered voters. However, Republicans' continuing higher enthusiasm coupled with the usual GOP turnout advantage suggest a significant Republican edge in the nationwide vote for the U.S. House, and, in turn, significant Republican House seat gains.

With five weeks to go before the Nov. 2 elections, and campaigning intensifying, these indicators could shift, but it would require a major reorientation of voter sentiment to shift the probabilities significantly in the Democrats' direction.

Generic Ballot for Congress

Gallup's generic congressional ballot provides a summary measure of Americans' current voting intentions for Congress. The generic ballot has proven a highly accurate predictor of the national vote for the House of Representatives in midterm election years.

At this point, the generic ballot shows 46% of registered voters choosing the Democratic candidate and 46% the Republican candidate, based on more than 3,000 interviews conducted Sept. 20-26. Three out of the last four weeks have found the generic ballot among registered voters essentially tied.



From a broader perspective, the generic ballot among registered voters so far this year has shown four phases in the election campaign. The two parties were roughly tied from March through June, Democrats did better in July, Republicans had a strong month in August, and in September the two parties have returned to parity.

Given the usual Democratic advantages in party identification among the general public, it is rare for Republicans to lead on the generic ballot among registered voters. This was the case even when Republicans were the majority congressional party from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. Turnout is crucial in midterm elections. With at least 80% of Americans registered to vote but only about half that number likely to vote in the midterm elections, registered voter and actual voter preferences can differ significantly.

Turnout typically favors Republicans, and a tie in the generic ballot among all registered voters (as Gallup found in the final pre-election poll in 1994) more than likely means Republicans have a lead among those likely to vote. Gallup will begin estimating voting preferences among the projected electorate using likely voter modeling beginning next week. At this point, it is probable that Republicans will do better among those estimated to be most likely to vote than among all registered voters.

Enthusiasm About Voting

Republicans have maintained a significant advantage over Democrats in enthusiasm about voting since Gallup began tracking the measure weekly in March. In Gallup's latest update, from Sept. 20-26, 48% of Republicans said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 28% of Democrats.



Generally speaking, the party whose identifiers show an advantage on voting enthusiasm tends to fare better on Election Day. For example, Republicans had enthusiasm advantages in 1994 and 2002, while Democrats had an advantage in 2006. In 1998, a very close election, neither party had an apparent advantage.

more...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143243/Midterm-Election-Landscape-Points-Republican-Gains.aspx

[ProSense]

1. Voter preference is tied, but Republican enthusiasm is very high

At this point, with Democratic candidates making gains or leading, I'll take these enthusiasm polls with a grain of salt.

[Name removed]

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[Aramchek]

2. Dems are surging as People condsider who they would actually be electing.

The poll is Generic but the People taking the poll now know who their choices are.

[DemocraticPilgrim]

3. "You don't need to be enthusiastic to vote, you just need to vote."

[Qutzupalotl]

5. Fear is a remarkable motivator

and unfortunately for the Republicans, most Tea Party candidates scare the hell out of people. Instead of the terrorist bogeyman, we've got actual nutjobs who want to get their hands on the levers of power.