In the fight over tax cuts, rethugs seem to be cornered

[babylonsister]

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/76563/how-fight-the-tax-cut-wars


How To Fight The Tax Cut Wars
Jonathan Chait

The next big fight in Congress revolves around extending the Bush tax cuts. Unlike issues like climate change or stimulus, where the public does not accept the Democrats' basic analysis of the problem, on the tax cuts the Democrats hold the whip hand. The question is whether they emerge with a political win, a public policy win, or both.

snip//

So we're down to a game of chicken. Here's why the Democrats hold the whip hand. They can pass an extension of the middle-class Bush tax cuts through the House. If Republicans let the bill pass, then they've lost their leverage to extend the unpopular Bush upper-income tax cuts. If they filibuster it, then Democrats can blame them for raising taxes on middle-class Americans. It would let Democrats out of their pledge. (Hey, they tried to keep the middle-class tax cuts.) Then nothing would pass, and we'd instantly revert to Clinton-era rates across the board.

What kind of effect would that have on the deficit? A huge one:


That dark orange stripe is the portion of the deficit attributable to the Bush tax cuts. That would be wiped out. Ending the tax cuts would basically solve the medium-term deficit problem.

The key factor here is that, just as Republicans got to frame the debate in 2001 by combining the tax cuts into an up or down vote, Democrats can frame the debate now by separating the policies Republicans pretend to care about from the ones they actually care about. Republicans want to have a vote on the whole collection of Bush-era tax cuts. Democrats shouldn't give it to them. You hold a separate vote on the middle class portion and dare them to oppose it.

This seems to be the plan:

"The Senate will move first, and it will be a test to see whether Republicans filibuster" to block the bill in a bid to also win tax cuts for higher earners, said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, head of the House Democrats' re-election effort.

"If you can't get it out of the Senate, then you take it to the election," Mr. Van Hollen said in a recent interview. "You say to the American people that Republicans want to continue to hold middle-class tax relief hostage for an extension of tax breaks for . That will be the debate."

Republicans have followed a strategy of opposing nearly everything the Democrats do. It's worked very well. But the peculiar dynamic of this debate puts the Republicans in a position where they can't win, and obstructing the Democrats is probably their worst move.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. Why do I have the nagging fear that we will manage to screw this up too?

Somehow, some way, similar to how the Volker Rule just magically disappeared from the financial reform bill, we will manage to fuck up this election year gift as well.

[thelordofhell]

2. The distraction of war

It's amazing that the tax cuts are worse than war.

[babylonsister]

3. I don't have any idea what you mean.

Tax cuts for the rich need to be addressed; the rethugs shouldn't be able to get away with this. It was their idea for them to end in 2010, for cryin' out loud.

[thelordofhell]

6. The tax cuts will expire

What I was saying is that if you look at the graph, those tax cuts were worse for the economy than the wars.

What we need is to raise the taxes on the rich even more to make up for this quagmire of an economic mess they got us into.

[golfguru]

8. I agree...tax the shit out of the rich

so every body else can have a decent life. We don't need no
stinking rich to exploit the rest of us peons.

[butterfly77]

4. Why do they think their strategy will work when...

The millions who are out of work can't get a tax cut because they can't find a job,or don't have a job and if it is working so good then why aren't they creating jobs now...They are full of it.

[quaker bill]

5. It is the right play

for a great many reasons. Either the republicans flinch and we get good policy passed, or they go to the mat to protect the wealthy and CEOs. If the repugs filibuster the middle class tax break, November could turn on a dime.

This is the debate you want to have on your side going into the polls. Nice framing. This is the issue you want to "roll out" in September.

[Arkana]

7. I never even thought of it this way--fucking brilliant.

Republicans live in fear of taxes and voting against tax cuts in an election year would be like yanking their fingernails out.

I can't wait to see how it plays out.