Lions, tigers and bears-oh my-Palin de facto GOP nominee by Dec 2010-Desperate GOP to turn to Jeb?

[Politics_Guy25]

Please don't take my posting this as an attack on President Obama. I'm just very curious about who he'll run against and defeat in 2012. Please don't assume that my interest in who the GOP nominee is anything else. The fact is that to get a 2nd term, he'll have to defeat whoever the GOP nominates, and who that person is, will determine how easily he wins re-election in 2012. I know it ticks people off on here to mention Palin at all but the signs are growing that she will be the GOP nominee. She's just 3-4 points back of Romnney and Huckabee nationally and ahead or at worst tied in GOP Primary polls in huge states such as TX and PA.

Let the record show that I despise Sarah Palin and think that she would be equally or worse than George W. Bush if at all possible.

Here's the article's relevant portions:

Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.

As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.

By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.

What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.

Link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/12/palin_cranks_up_2012_campaign.html

FWIW, I think that Jeb is politically toxic just 4 years after his brother's reign of terror.

The article is a bit too far right-wing in it's analysis but since the right wing will determine the GOP nominee, I think that's fine.

[dmallind]

1. Oh please. Either a Palin or a Bush as the opposition and we don't even need to run ads. NT

[Dr.Phool]

4. Don't misunderestimate Jeb.

He's the dangerous one.

He's a cold-blooded, right -wing ideologue. More so than the rest of the family. And he's got a brain, which makes him more dangerous.

If he wanted the nomination, I think the only thing that would stop him, would be an indictment or conviction.

[Sebastian Doyle]

8. The Bush Crime Family would only enter the race if they knew they could steal it.

And even then, it's not likely at the moment, since they only like to be in power when there's something they can steal (besides the election). Like the entire US treasury. Or another country's natural resources.

[DJ13]

2. Desperate GOP to turn to Jeb?

Thats the plan.

Amazing how the GOP always turns to the Bush family, like its pre-planned.......

[Politics_Guy25]

3. The GOP establishment is going to get crushed in the 2012 GOP primary

Palin and her supporters will not be denied. XD. Who's going to defeat her? It sets up a beautiful GE for President Obama though.

[Sheepshank]

17. good Gawd

and Lizzy Cheney will be his right hand harpy? There are not words!

[Deep13]

5. I'd say let them pick the quitter and Obama will eat her for breakfast...

...but that attitude has backfired on us in the past.

[ThatPoetGuy]

6. I don't think she'll run.

What's in it for Sarah? That's the question she's always asking herself. Elections are tiring, grueling, and difficult; being an executive is hard work. And she gets paid more just for burping out anti-Obama word salad.

An absence of Sarah will mean Republican primary candidates will innately disappoint her followers. "I like so-and-so," they'll say, "but he's no Sarah Palin."

She will sell her endorsement for fifty million dollars.

[southernyankeebelle]

7. I don't doubt that Jeb wouldn't be asked to run. But a third Bush is just to

much to ask the country. I think being burnt twice is enough.

[Sebastian Doyle]

9. There's been more than two of them.

Sure, only Poppy and the Chimp actually had the last name Bush. But the reality is that the Bush Crime Family has been the power behind ALL Repuke Presidencies since 1952.

[old mark]

10. I started to hear Jeb's name as a potential candidate a few weeks ago...

I think he could be a strong contender...there are people on the right who actually think he is a respectable moderate and a good family man - kind of like W, but, you know, better...

He won't win in '12, but we better have somebody really good in '16 or we might see Bush III!

mark

[saltpoint]

11. At some point or other the GOP primaries will

shrink the field of candidates, but it could take longer than usual and might be incredibly messy. Both those outcomes would be desirable for us, with as many divisive and bitter feelings left over among Republicans for the general as possible. May the rivers run red, ladies and gentlemen, with the blood of the Republican embittered.

For now it doesn't seem to me that the GOP has any front-runners. Huckabee seems to be playing with the notion of running rather than running outright. He's famous for his disinterest in fundraising, which is essential if he wants to contend against Romney.

Romney and Gingrich want it so bad they're all but foaming at the mouth and hyperventilating. Both of them may have to be chained and held in a high-security stall in a remote area, at least until the Iowa caucuses, and preferably indefinitely.

Palin evidently is going to run. In the last few days we hear of a more cool-browed, organizational focus, including carefully-targeted PAC money to help build a network of support. Palin has tapped into some, though not all, of the Baggers, but whether that represents a winning total for headlines in Iowa and New Hampshire remains to be seen. I don't think it does, especially if several other right-wing nutbags are also in the mix, including Rick Santorum. Mike Pence. Jim DeMint. Rick Perry.

In an extremely disturbing vision I just caught the fleeting spectre of a Rick Perry / Rick Warren ticket. Frightening.

At the moment no one in the GOP represents the "moderate" Republican Party of times past. They're all sucking the air out of the far-right corner. I agree with you that Jeb Bush, as repulsive as he certainly is to us, has some advantage in becoming the go-to candidate in a deadlocked convention. We think Jeb would be horrific and far-right, and we'd be correct to think so, but the delegates for Palin and Santorum and Pence and Perry will want their specific candidate, and likely think Jeb would be too 'moderate.' He'd almost have to be forced on some of those delegates.

But because someone or other has to emerge out of the fray, Jeb at the top of the 2012 ticket can't be ruled out. I rule out Palin because she's so completely stupid. I don't like Gingrich's chances much because he's so fussy and antiquated. Romney has cash but no charm. Huckabee has charm but no cash. George Pataki has neither cash nor charm.

It's just really hard to guess who or what emerges from the far-Right alley tussle that's about to hit the Republican Party.

It could be Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan on their ticket.

Or Rick Perry and Rick Warren.

John Thune and Susan Collins.

Rick Santorum and Mitch Daniels.

Mitt Romney and George Allen.

Or a ticket even worse than those, which is possible given we're dealing with Republicans.

[Politics_Guy25]

12. Excellent post-thanks

A dream post for a student of all things politics like I am.

[saltpoint]

13. ---

:hi:

[jenmito]

14. I think Paul Ryan and/or John Thune would beat Palin and/or Romney. n/t

[verges]

15. A three way race between a Bush, Palin and Obama? YES! nt

[704wipes]

16. Placeholder/Jeb 2012

Don't misunderestimate the Bush's running Jebbie for VP.

If the ticket loses, he becomes considered for 2016 automatically.
If they see they can steal it, they do so.
Then reveal to the Placeholder Prez that they will now have Jeb run things from the VP office, much like Cheney did.
Except with Jeb you have a VP who is then viable for 8 years on his own in 2020.
Voila' a 16 year presidency.
Should be more than enough time to steal everything (that's left) and lock us all up.