PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Sestak Closing, Onorato Dominating

[ccharles000]

Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (4/28-5/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D): 48
Joe Sestak (D): 42
Undecided: 11

Dan Onorato (D): 41
Anthony Williams (D): 8
Joe Hoeffel (D): 6
Jack Wagner (D): 5
Undecided: 40
(MoE: ±5%)

"Closing" might be an overstatement for Joe Sestak, as this is the first poll Muhlenberg (go Mules!) has done for the Democratic primary so there aren't trendlines. Still, there was a Rasmussen poll that had Sestak within 2 of Arlen Specter last month, and the Pollster regression line shows some definite signs of life for Sestak. The question is whether the upward movement is coming too late, with the primary in two more weeks.

Contrast that with the Dems' gubernatorial primary, where Dan Onorato's trajectory has taken flight in the last month. Onorato's opposition has struggled to emerge from the low teens, and now they've all fallen back into the single digits. Even though 40% of the electorate is still undecided about this one, that's actually the lowest undecideds ever in the Dem primary so far.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6829/pasen-pagov-sestak-closing-onorato-dominating

[MrSlayer]

1. Specter kind of smacked Sestak around in the debate the other night.

Joe was not on his game at all and failed to use prime attacking points. Specter was crushing him with attitude. I don't know what his team was thinking.

[FrenchieCat]

5. Joe Sestak sounded sooo phony in that debate, it was hard to watch.

Kind of like a robot who was programmed to say everything in the same emotional note,
no matter the question. He did not impress me one bit....and I don't dislike the
guy, but after that performance, he just came off....well, kinda of creepy.

[AtomicKitten]

7. I've made a 180 on this primary.

My natural inclination was to support Sestak the actual Democrat, however, as I posted below Nate Silver rates Specter more liberal than Sestak plus there's the nasty business of Sestak claiming Obama bribed him not to run against Specter and the GOP sphincter police Darrell Issa now wants an investigation.

Oy.

[WI_DEM]

2. I'm actually wondering if we would do better overall with a new face other than Specter.

And he potentially could last longer in office if he wins.

[IndianaGreen]

4. Specter is a fraking scumbag and a Republican despite the D he is hiding behind!

Time to sent that POS packing!

[AtomicKitten]

6. Yet Nate Silver rates Specter more liberal than Sestak.

Is Sestak the right choice for the left?

In fact, it's plausible that he (Sestak) could be a bit worse. ProgressivePunch.org ranks Sestak as the 158th most progressive member out of 221 non-freshman Democrats, and notes that he's an order of magnitude or so more conservative than you'd expect of a Congressman from his Democratic-leaning district. Sestak's DW-NOMINATE score in the 110th Congress was -.287 on a scale that runs from -1 for extremely liberal to 0 for moderate; this is actually slightly more conservative than the score that we'd projected for Specter, which was -.303. The National Journal, moreover, found that Sestak took the liberal position only 63 percent of the time in the votes they tracked in 2007.

[AlinPA]

8. If he wins, he will flip back to R. This is a guy who supported Santorum and Palin. nt

[harun]

3. When is the primary?

[PAMod]

9. Tues., May 18.

[old mark]

10. I'm surprised that Williams has done as well as he has...He is from

the Philly area and got no support from the party in PA and he ran a gun control ad, which is the kiss of death in PA.I have NEVER seen an ad for Hoeffel yet...
Onorato has pledged to clean up the PA legislature...I hope he brought his rubber boots...we may have the most corrupt legislature in the US.

I am not very happy with Sestak - I heard him speak a few times and he is not what he wants to appear to be. But either Democrat would be better than Toomey, that psycho fascist...


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