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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:36 PM
Original message
Another trend I missed, but to be added
well over the last week I have been told repeatedly that my trend spotting (technical term) is an actual support of a revolution. For the record it is not.

Let's make this clear.

But if this projection of personal fears (of a revolution) or desires (of a revolution) onto analytical posts is more than just isolated it could reach a social tipping point. For this I recommend you read Gladwell's The Tipping Point.

http://www.amazon.com/Tipping-Point-Little-Things-Diffe...

Now let me explain why is this important?

Dramatic social change does not come from the ether... and the desire for that dramatic social change, like all movements, requires little things, that in the aggregate speak of a society ready for that change. Before any major social change there are signs and symtoms that it is happening, that there is a zeitgeist shift, a paradigm shift. For things like the American Revolution it took about fifteen years. Suffice it to say some citizens felt they were still british even after the ink dried in the Paris Peace Treaty.

But this projection is part of those trends. It is hard as hell to spot. In fact in primary sources of the Revolution you can sort off see it in the pamphlets of the day... but the actual people projecting fears and desires is not easy to spot.

So look around, see if there are OTHER places where people are projecting their fears \ desires. And for those of you who are both fearful and who hope for one... here is where we are in the real world.

We passed the riot stage...

We are right now at the Civil Disobedience\ Public Protest stage. This is where most social conflicts end. Why? Those in power, the power elites, realize that they pushed a little too hard, to they essentially give in. Oh and this is NOT the XVI century when this stage came with actual popular uprisings, the worst of which was the Jacqerie. We are a tad more sophisticated than that. In my mind that is a good thing too.

Now let's play a percentage game on this because there are a couple things that will change this very NORMAL dynamic.

Will the Empire Collapse? Absolutely all do. Within my lifetime? 100% assured.

Within the next ten years... IMHO over 80% assured, the trends are there.

Within the next five years... IMHO in the high 60s.

Within the next year... if all things come tighter, and that includes the party of no playing it's role... in the fifties.

With this lead to more social dislocation? Is the Pope Catholic? That is what raises the specter of a civil war, imho and dissolution to the high 50s. No, it is not exactly a revolution. Civil Wars are not civil by the way, and we may have localized revolutions after this is well under way. At that point, see the USSR. all bets are off for about six months to a year.

Will we have an honest to goodness take to the streets, revolution? You know what Glen Beck keeps promising us but it never gets here? ok there is always odds of that, but IMHO it is somewhere between 5-10%... perhaps even lower than 5% at THIS TIME. See Empire Collapse that might rise in some REGIONS...

But the fact that people are projecting their own fears\desires is an important marker that I missed.

So thank you. I will keep paying attention to things like that.
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hobbit709 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. If we really learned the lessons of history
there wouldn't be any history because history is just a list of the same stupid mistakes made over and over.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Absolutely and Americans are actually proud of
not knowing their history.

Or for that matter any history... that is what elites do...

As one of my instructors once put it, cynically so... the day we learn from history is the day we are all put out of business. Don't worry within two generations at most we will be back in business. Humans are just too stupid to learn...
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Mike 03 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Wonderful comment
Although I am not sure I agree that Americans are "elite," I agree completely that there is an absurd pride we have in our ignorance because it permits us to get away with total apathy.

I appreciate your intellect. It is very challenging, but so often true.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. No, not that Americans are elite
but only elitists read history.

It is the traditional anti intellectualism of the American People.
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Mike 03 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Oh, I gotcha! Yes, that is another sad truth, for sure.
Yet again you are raising another disturbing feature of American society.
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WHEN CRABS ROAR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
5. Remember it only takes about 10% of the population to start
a revolution.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Absolutely and it comes from the fringes
EVERY TIME... and everybody misses it every time.

Why I give it some odds. But at this time they remain low.

At this time it as high as it's gotten in seventy years... aka the great depression... that was scary enough though.

Oh and due to what is happening I will not lay odds as to what extreme would start it. Even if the obvious suspect are in the RW militias. They are the same place for the civil war by the way, and that is higher odds.
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WHEN CRABS ROAR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. I see a fascist government with RW militias for support.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. That is definitely a possibility
this is actually part of the pattern as Empires collapse.

That is a crazy rise in Nationalism... check

And a turn rightward--- check in an effort to preserve the Empire.
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Mike 03 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
8. A few amateur observations
Edited on Sun Dec-12-10 05:00 PM by Mike 03
We protest a little bit when our nation is doing something abominable to another nation without probable cause, such as our outrageous invasion of Iraq.

We get very angry when we feel that our individual rights or income have been compromised, but we don't organize well; thus, our anger comes out in the form of ignored emails to our representatives.

We don't draw much inspiration from the more demonstrative protests in Europe, which we would probably do well to emulate.

Our rage seems to take the form of perverse acts of violence, like suicide, killing our children or parents, abducting strangers, blowing away people we work with, flying planes into office buildings, etc...

At this moment in history, I feel that we are too isolated to organize, and I think this is the result of trends in society that turn us against each other by training us to believe there are such limited resources that we are better off alone than in forming communities.

But I would love your opinion on my theory, since it is a bit odd.

EDIT: corrected spelling of "outrageous"
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. It is called social anomie
so it is not crazy.

Durkheim

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anomie
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Mike 03 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Wow, this is fascinatingly informative.
Edited on Sun Dec-12-10 05:14 PM by Mike 03
I thought "Anomie" meant something different (I thought anomie was the same as "apathy"). This is exactly what I was trying to describe.

Thank you!!
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. You welcome
there are many books on it, and at times people doubt that it actually works. But it does.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
14. Interesting

will keep watching these trends as they develop

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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. I was getting really pissed until I had a very interesting
exchange over a PM... that and sleep was the AHA moment.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. I realize the collapse of the Empire is coming

The way we have been living is unsustainable. But it's very hard to predict what the exact tipping point will be, and when it will occur. So I look forward to reading more about these trends as they develop.
Thanks for your insight.

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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. The economy is really a big predictor
as well as the over extension in Central Asia...

The other is steel production, or rather a drop in it.

For that The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_2_33?url=search-...

Is a very good read.

I read that oh when it first came out in the 80s and have watched the indicators like a hawk.
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obliviously Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 05:56 PM
Response to Original message
18. We should all escape to Cuba and live in utopia!
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator.
 
obliviously Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Why waste time with revolution, utopia awaits us!
Big honkin cigars too.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator.
 
coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
22. I attended the big anti-war demo in Los Angeles on Feb 15, 2003. Even
organizations that typically under-count attendance at anti-establishment demos counted attendance at this one at 10s of thousands (and I think the LAPD may have estimated it at 100,000). It is almost impossible to get 100,000 people together in LA to do anything, so I thought for sure this was it.

I honestly thought that would be the start of the revolution but I was wrong.

I also was present on Wilshire Boulevard in Korea Town on May 1, 2005 for the immigrants' rights march when some 500,000 marched down Wilshire Blvd. It is a sight I will never forget.

I thought I was seeing the start of the revolution but I was wrong. (To this day, though, I remain convinced that the movement's organizers missed a chance to turn that May Day into a revolution.)

The point is that in each case I was incorrect. So I have learned to be more cautious in making predictions and that I am often prone to project my own hidden desires onto what I am seeing.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. You are not alone
and this is happening a lot.

Why I now have added it to the trends.

I will have to quite possibly go other places and see how wide spread it is.

Also realize the paradigm shift, and we are in the midst of one, at times takes a generation.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
24. Kick
:kick:
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-10 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Thanks
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