Five (ThirtyEight's) Reasons For Optimism Means GOTV.

[FourScore]

ACTION. Five (ThirtyEight's) Reasons For Optimism Means GOTV.
by Plubius
Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 09:04:04 AM PDT

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight has a promising article up titled 5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House. The five reasons we could outperform the polls and beat consensus expectations are:

1. The cellphone effect: polls don't poll cell phones, only land lines, which disfavor Dems up to a possible 4%.

2. The ‘robopoll’ effect: robocalls disfavor Dems up to 4%.

3. Some likely voter models, particularly Gallup’s, may “crowd out” Democratic voters. Effect, again disfavor to Dems of around 4%.

4. Democrats probably have better turnout operations This all comes down to our GOTV

5. The consensus view of Democratic doom is not on such sound footing as it seems.

GOTV.

We have control over our turnout through our GOTV operations. This is hardly news. If you have not signed up to GOTV in your state, it is not still too late. You can still help. Even now. Even one hour of phone banking can make a difference.

Contact the GOTV operations in your area. If you do not see it in the diary, write a comment with the link and I will update. I will start with the elections in WA and CA...

MORE ON GOTV AT: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/11/2/915940/-ACTION.-Five-%28ThirtyEights%29-Reasons-For-Optimism-Means-GOTV.-

[uponit7771]

1. delete

[uponit7771]

2. 6. Early voting is on par with presidential election, first time in history of US voting

[de novo]

5. It will be interesting to see if that rate of turnout holds up today.

Early voters tend to be the informed and active voters that vote in every election. I am curios to see if there is the same kind of turnout today. Much impressed with the early voting numbers, though. And, optimistic for the Dems chances.

[myrna minx]

3. K&R. n.t

[Lindsey]

4. K & R n/t

[FSogol]

6. K & R. GOTV n/t