from Swing State Project:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7855/wvsen-manchin-pulling-away-according-to-pppHere's some pretty good news out of the Mountain State: PPP's newest poll of the Senate race has Joe Manchin putting some extra distance between him and John Raese. (PPP, of course, was the first to find Manchin back in the lead, after also being the first to find Manchin trailing. In fact, come to think of it, other than that one PPP poll, the only pollster that's ever given Raese the lead has been the Rasmussen/Fox axis.)
Manchin remains extremely personally popular (69/23 approval), and the only reason he's not running away with this is Barack Obama's horrible 31/65 approval, and GOP leads on generic ballot questions. The reason for his small gain seems to be that he's even making some inroads among self-identified conservative voters (up to 24% with them, from 17% last time).
Public Policy Polling (10/23-24, likely voters, 10/9-10 in parens):
Joe Manchin (D): 50 (48)
John Raese (R): 44 (45)
Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
from Public Policy Polling:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/manchin-expands-lead.htmlManchin expands leadMonday, October 25, 2010 -- The great challenge of Joe Manchin's Senate campaign has been this: convincing West Virginia voters who like him but don't like Barack Obama to let their affection for him outweigh their animosity toward the President in deciding how to vote this fall. He's been improving in his ability to do that over the last 2 weeks and as a result he's increased his lead over John Raese to 50-44. He led by 3 on a PPP poll a couple weeks ago and had trailed by 3 on a September survey.
The race is pretty much the same place it was two weeks ago with liberals and moderates but Manchin has been making progress with conservatives. Where before he was getting only 17% of their votes, he's now up to 24%. That suggests things like the television ad where he 'shoots' the Cap and Trade bill are helping to reassure voters in the state that he wouldn't be just another vote for the Obama agenda in Washington DC . . .
The reason this race has remained close despite Manchin's overwhelming popularity is that for the folks who both like Manchin and dislike Obama, accounting for 37% of voters in the state, the feelings toward Obama have been more influential in how they plan to vote. In early October Manchin trailed 59-34 with that group. Now though, as he's emphasized his conservative credentials on the campaign trail, Manchin is facing only a 51-43 deficit with that segment of the electorate. That's why he's been able to build his lead over the last few weeks.
The other reason Manchin's looking a lot better than he did a month ago is that John Raese simply has not worn well on the campaign trail. In our first West Virginia poll his favorability was 41/35. Since then his positive number has stayed basically the same at 42%, while his negatives have risen to 47%. Republicans may have needed a more formidable candidate than Raese if they were going to defeat the incredibly formidable Manchin.
read more:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/manchin-expands-lead.html
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