How accurate is Intrade.com?

[leftygolfer]

One of the club members was talking this morning about Intrade.com and that Republicans winning the House was a "done deal." Never heard of them but I did look at the site. Not even sure what I'm looking at. Is this a blog or scientific or what? Is this something that anyone takes seriously?

[sharp_stick]

1. It's like a stock market for prediction

you can go there and buy the repukes taking over the house or buy the democratic candidate winning a Senate race. You can then sell them if/when you make money or decide to dump out of the market just like the real one.

Right now the money is on the pukes winning the house but take a look at the site and you'll see how fast the markets can change when news hits.

Intrade is surprisingly accurate as the election night approaches.

[leftygolfer]

2. thank you

i'm not very stock market savvy. nor do i really want/need to be. does the number mean how many seats people predict the repubs will pick up? b/c there's no way. that would throw out their predictions quickly. i know i just don't "get" it. maybe i should just not look too much at it. stressed enough over the election as it is

[sharp_stick]

3. No not how many seats

just will the republicans pick up the majority. There may be another group of "trades" where one will say. Repukes will win 100 seats and that will likely have a lot fewer buys than the one that says Repukes will win 50 seats, which will have fewer buys than the Repukes will win 25 seats.

Just like the real stock market you can think of this as a gambling site, as your odds of winning (making money) go up the price goes up. Fewer people would be willing to bet $100 of their own real money or whatever amount that the pukes will win 100 seats than would be willing to bet the same money that they will pick up at least 25 seats.

It's a fascinating site in general and it's accuracy gets better as the election date gets closer. The pukes taking over the house isn't a sure thing but a lot of people are willing to bet that they will, at least right now.

edit: typos

[Stevenmarc]

4. Proves that you can never underestimate the public's desire to spend money on stupid shit

[Statistical]

5. Intrade is like a cross between stock market and gambling.

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

"The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections" is currently priced at 87.

after the election the contract will either be worth 0 or 100.

So
if you buy the contract you are paying $87 to win $100 and you win IF republicans control the house.
if you sell the contract you are paying $13 to win $100 and you win IF rep don't control the house.

As it gets close to election day intrade tends to rather accurately predict the outcome of the event.

[The Northerner]

6. Despite being based on gambling, Intrade is quite accurate

Prior to the 2006 mid-term elections, it was predicted that the Dems would win control both houses and prior to the 2008 presidential elections it was predicted that Obama would be victorious and the members predicted which states would vote for or against Obama, with the exception being Missouri although it was really close.

[Statistical]

7. I agree however the further out from the event the more volatility in the results.

As we get close to the election day the numbers will have more confidence.