Roubini: 40% Chance of Double-dip Recession

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Roubini: 40% Chance of Double-dip Recession
by CalculatedRisk on 10/06/2010 06:59:00 PM

From MarketWatch:

Roubini: 40% chance of double-dip recession

There is a 40% probability of a double-dip recession, but you don't need one for the global economy to feel like it is in a deep, continuing recession, said Nouriel Roubini ... "You don't need another Lehman story, you don't need a major loss," said Roubini at an American Enterprise Institute event. "You can have death by a thousand cuts."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/roubini-40-chance-of-double-dip-recession-2010-10-06

I'm not sure how you assign precise odds (yesterday Goldman Sachs put the odds at about 25% to 30%), but I think the most likely outcome is sluggish growth. And that means the economy will remain susceptible to shocks.

And, as Roubini noted, it doesn't matter if the economy is technically in a recession - it will feel like a recession to millions of Americans as long as jobs are scarce and incomes are under pressure.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/roubini-40-chance-of-double-dip.html

[Newest Reality]

1. Hmmm ...

Okay ...

For the wealthy: !00% chance of recovery, (well they already have that). But WAIT, there's more! A bonus of mastery of life over the rest of us, technologically guaranteed and historically unprecedented.

For the rest of us: 100% chance of a gradual, deep, dark descent into 3rd-world status with a similar chance of world-wide global depression as the useless eaters are finally culled. You won't get cereal with your Banana republic. Of course, the media will distract, divide and buffer this calamity as creeps up slowly and then ... POKES you in the eye.

Remedy for group two: Be knowledgeable. Change your way of life accordingly. Join others and brace for this. Form community, but be prepared for belligerent, jealous, Fascist intervention. Find a vision of a future that is free of what caused this debacle. Even if it is just dreaming, you have to start with something and there ARE alternatives to being just a wage-slave caught in the web of manipulation.

Your way of life, (unless you are already poor and downtrodden) cannot and will not go on as it has and what has been lost will not be returning. With that kind of scenario, how can one live well with less? That is the most important question in relation to our circumstances and what we will leave to future generations.

We are like cattle to the upper-castes of America. Now, go see how industrial cattle live and note the resemblance to your management and its future if left unchecked.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. 60% chance that the economy is improivng...

or would that be 6 out of ten chance...

[Tempest]

3. Why is anyone listening to this clown?

He predicted foreign central banks would dump U.S. Treasuries and spark a run on the dollar. It never happened.

Then he "predicted" the housing crisis AFTER other leading economists had warned of it.

He predicted the Dow would drop to 4,000 and there was going to be food shortages in the U.S. I'm still waiting.

He predicted GDP would be negative in the 4th quarter of 2009. It was a positive 5.9% growth.

He predicted unemployment would PEAK at 9% this year. Wrong again.