Hurricane watchers get ready

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
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Forecast for 91L
There is strong model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all develop 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west to west-northwest motion is predicted, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm arriving in the islands as early as Thursday. It is possible that 91L would pass northeast of the islands, as predicted by the UKMET model, and it is too early to speculate on which of the islands is at most risk. As the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles late this week, 91L will encounter a strong upper-level low pressure system centered north of Puerto Rico. This upper-level low will likely bring high levels of wind shear to the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thus, if 91L stays to the south, in the Caribbean, it is far more likely to attain hurricane status than if it pushes north of the Caribbean. As always, long range forecasts of this sort are speculative, and it is too early to reliably say what the long-term risks of 91L becoming a hurricane are. The latest intensity forecast from the SHIPS model shows 91L peaking in strength four days from now, then weakening as it encounters the high wind shear area north of Puerto Rico.

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[trumad]

1. Yep

Here come's the lineup.

[kayakjohnny]

2. See also....

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Discussion

Invest 91-L In The Central And Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely monitoring an area of organizing disturbed weather that is located near 9 North Latitude, 37 West Longitude. This system has been designated Invest 91L and bottom line is that it needs to be watched very, very closely over the coming days. What has occurred over the past 48 to 72 hours is that at the beginning there were two tropical waves that emerged off of the coast of Africa that were close in distance to each other. The westernmost tropical wave, initially designated Invest 90L weakened and the tropical wave just to its east became the dominant circulation and thus has been designated Invest 91L.

All indications are that this system is likely to strengthen this week, however, the rate it strengthens today through Monday may be kind of slow. The reason for this is because Invest 91L has to fully remove itself from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone; once this occurs, then I think you will see the rate of strengthening increase. With that said, satellite imagery early this morning seems to indicate that a low level circulation may be forming and deep convection is firing near this center.

There appears to be no factors that will impede development this week and the model guidance confirms that environmental conditions will be very favorable for development and intensification this week. The European, GFS, UKMET, Canadian, NOGAPS, SHIPS and LGEM models all forecast intensification for at least the next week and beyond. It is very hard to ignore this type of model agreement. Most concerning to me is that the European model is forecasting a very favorable environment for this system as it forecasts a upper level high pressure system to spread westward across the central and western Atlantic. Based on this, it seems likely that this system will likely be a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Tuesday, if not earlier. After that, it seems likely that this will be a significant hurricane by the end of this week into next weekend. While it is possible that the overall environment could change to prevent strengthening, this type of model consensus for a significant hurricane needs to be taken seriously.

As for a possible track for the future Colin, the model consensus seems to point towards a track very near or over the Leeward Islands on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The European model forecasts a landfall over the Leeward Islands on Thursday morning and then right over Puerto Rico on Thursday night. This type of track seems very realistic and needs to be taken seriously. There are no weather features to significantly change the overall weather pattern this week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward towards the eastern United States. I do recognize that the UKMET and Canadian models forecast a track well north of the islands of the northeast Caribbean, however, this solution looks to be wrong and I’ll explain why in the next paragraph.

Teleconnections between what is going on here in the Atlantic Basin and what is going on in the upper levels over Asia lead me to believe that this system will not curve out into the open Atlantic or even ride up the US East Coast. Currently, a strong ridge of high pressure extends from southern Japan southwestward into southeast Asia. This type of pattern should translate into the Atlantic Basin by next weekend and I expect a strong ridge of high pressure to extend from the coast of North Carolina southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. This says to me any approaching storm will not curve up the East Coast, but instead take a track very similar to Bonnie and this is not good news at all!! The European model forecast of a hurricane tracking across the Bahamas on Saturday into Sunday and then across the Florida Straits and Florida Keys Sunday night into Monday morning and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday seems a viable possibility. What is very concerning and downright scary is that the European model has been consistent in the overall forecasted pattern for the next week to 10 days and up until now it has been missing the tropical cyclone; now that it is modeling the tropical cyclone, it seems to support the idea of very favorable environmental conditions and a track that is quite concerning.

So, with all of this said, folks in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this system. It seems possible that weather conditions will go downhill across the Leeward Islands during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, weather conditions are currently forecast to go downhill on Thursday afternoon with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions during Thursday night.

After Thursday, the forecast track and intensity of future Colin becomes more unclear, however, if the model guidance forecasts of very favorable environmental conditions verify, then we may be looking at a very significant hurricane as it approaches the Turks and Caicos islands later Friday. As I have already mentioned, I think a track westward across the Bahamas, Florida Straits or Florida Keys and then into the Gulf of Mexico seems more likely during next weekend. With that said, the most pressing and immediate concern is for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring things very closely and will keep you all updated.

Today would be a very good day to go over your hurricane preparedness kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe’s and purchase what you need. If you are looking for lists of what should be in your hurricane preparedness kit, go to http://www.onestorm.org. This is a really good reference website and I highly recommend it!!

Finally, I have put in an order to have our bandwidth ramped up starting on Tuesday to prevent the website from going down when you need it most!! Any support you can give to assist us in these costs would be greatly appreciated. Go to http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=22 for more information.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning.

[malaise]

4. Interesting discussion

Thanks for the link :hi:

[Edweird]

3. I've been watching this one for a while. It's at 80% now.