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The ADP Number And The Double-Dip Recession

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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 09:04 PM
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The ADP Number And The Double-Dip Recession
from 24/7WallStreet:

The ADP Number And The Double-Dip Recession
Posted: June 30, 2010 at 9:30 am

The RealtyTrac numbers from this morning showed that improved housing activity in March and April was caused by federal tax breaks, and, to some extent mortgage rates. Once those benefits disappeared, home sales and home starts collapsed. Buyers are either seeking the deals that purchasing foreclosed-upon homes offers, or homes that come with large government incentives are worth the risk of buying.

Todays ADP private sector payroll information shows that any improvement in hiring has disappeared. Weekly jobless claims which has not shown any substantial change in two months confirm this

These data point, taken together, make it likely that the June BLS unemployment numbers will be much worse than expected even when the drop in Census workers is figured in.

Employment and housing numbers are both moving in reverse back toward levels from late last year.

The ADP data:

Nonfarm private employment increased 13,000 from May to June 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The estimated change in employment from April to May 2010 was revised up slightly, from the previously reported increase of 55,000 to an increase of 57,000.

Junes rise in private employment was the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

-- Douglas A. McIntyre

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